Como
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Como were slight favourites.
Como were the stronger side on L90 Strength (56 vs 34). Como usually keep the ball (62% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Como had 4.8 days of rest, Torino 5.9 and had to travel 210 km.
Away travel210 kmRest days4.8 · 5.9Matches / 14d3 · 2
Como57%
Draw25%
Torino18%
Como57%
Draw24%
Torino19%
Como57%
Draw25%
Torino19%
Como50%
Draw27%
Torino23%
Como58%
Draw24%
Torino19%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 1–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Parma)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyErmanno Feliciani
- Cards per match 3.1
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 36
Team strength
Como
Torino
56
L90 StrengthIn forecast
34
65
Current StrengthIn forecast
39
72
AttackIn forecast
39
67
DefenceIn forecast
47
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisTorino
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ComoTorino
1.48
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
0.76
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.62
1.35
xGVia Att/Def
1.12
0.93
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.33
+0.13
Goals minus xGContext
-0.12
71%
Scored inContext
67%
48%
Clean sheetsContext
38%
13.52
ShotsContext
11.90
4.86
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.38
36%
On target shareContext
37%
8.48
Shots in the boxContext
7.57
62%
Box shareContext
64%
11%
ConversionContext
8%
1.50
OffsidesContext
1.67
9.76
Shots allowedContext
12.90
3.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.18
BlocksContext
3.57
2.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.68
74%
Save rateContext
63%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
514
PassesContext
363
448
Accurate passesContext
287
87%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.76
13.71
FoulsContext
13.62
11.90
Fouls sufferedContext
10.86
2.33
Yellow cardsContext
1.76
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.05
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.54
xGVia Att/Def
1.16
0.99
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.32
+0.36
Goals minus xGContext
-0.06
80%
Scored inContext
80%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
13.90
ShotsContext
12.60
5.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.70
38%
On target shareContext
37%
9.70
Shots in the boxContext
7.90
70%
Box shareContext
63%
14%
ConversionContext
9%
1.50
OffsidesContext
1.63
9.10
Shots allowedContext
11.00
3.89
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.90
2.63
BlocksContext
3.40
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.33
69%
Save rateContext
57%
62%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
537
PassesContext
366
472
Accurate passesContext
285
88%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.93
Team ratingContext
6.79
11.70
FoulsContext
14.10
9.70
Fouls sufferedContext
11.20
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Como
Rest4.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel148 km1,030 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Torino
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel210 km339 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Como |
Torino |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 15 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.8Serie A 2025-2026, 19 Jan | 5.9Serie A 2025-2026, 18 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 148 km | 210 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,030 km | 339 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 6 | 1 / 2 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 7.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Como
Confirmed XI
1J. Butez(G)
3Álex Valle
2M. Kempf
14Jacobo Ramón
31M. Vojvoda
33L. da Cunha
23M. Perrone
20M. Baturina
10N. Paz
17Jesús Rodríguez
11A. Douvikas
Torino
Confirmed XI
1A. Paleari(G)
23Saúl Coco
44A. Ismajli
61A. Tamèze
6E. İlkhan
20V. Lazaro
22C. Casadei
10N. Vlašić
16M. Pedersen
19C. Adams
26C. Ngonge
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Como
Scores -0.02 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Torino
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Como+0.7 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Torino-0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Como · Home
1.90points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-4-1
- Scored
- 1.40
- Conceded
- 0.70
Torino · Away
1.20points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-4
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.40
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Como | Torino |
|---|---|---|
| Lazio | W 3–0 AW 2–0 H | D 3–3 A |
| AC Milan | L 1–3 H | L 2–3 H |
| Bologna | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A | D 0–0 A |
| Pisa | W 3–0 A | D 2–2 H |
| Udinese | W 1–0 H | L 1–2 H |
| Lecce | W 3–0 A | L 1–2 A |
| AS Roma | L 0–1 A | L 0–2 HW 1–0 A |
| Inter | L 0–4 A | L 0–5 A |
| Sassuolo | W 2–0 H | W 1–0 A |
| Cagliari | D 0–0 H | L 1–2 H |
| Napoli | D 0–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Verona | W 3–1 H | W 3–0 A |
| Parma | D 0–0 A | L 1–2 A |
| Juventus | W 2–0 H | D 0–0 A |
| Atalanta | D 1–1 A | L 0–2 AL 0–3 H |
| Cremonese | D 1–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Fiorentina | W 2–1 A | D 0–0 H |
| Genoa | D 1–1 H | W 2–1 H |
| Points | 34 of 60 · 1.70 per game | 23 of 60 · 1.15 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
2 Como wins0 draws1 Torino wins
Goals per game2.00 – 0.67
Over 2.533%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets33% · 33%
- 24 Nov 2025Torino1–5Como
- 13 Apr 2025Como1–0Torino
- 25 Oct 2024Torino1–0Como
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Como | Torino | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.48 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.76 | 1.62 | |
| Match goals | 2.24 | 2.62 | 2.63 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 38% | 57% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 19% | 24% | |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 43% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 48% | 38% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 33% | |
| Games | 21 | 21 |
| Como | Torino | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.90 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 2.90 | 2.63 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Como | Torino | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.89 | 3.95 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.39 | 4.32 | |
| Match total | 7.28 | 8.27 | 8.81 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 6/18 | 37% 7/19 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 4/18 | 37% 7/19 | |
| Over 10.5 | 17% 3/18 | 32% 6/19 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.43 | 1.81 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.14 | 1.43 | |
| Match total | 4.57 | 3.24 | 3.96 |
| Over 3.5 | 71% 15/21 | 48% 10/21 | |
| Over 4.5 | 48% 10/21 | 19% 4/21 | |
| Como | Torino | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.30 | 3.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.20 | 3.80 | |
| Match total | 7.50 | 7.70 | 8.81 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.30 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 2.90 | 3.96 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 0% 0/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ermanno Feliciani Italy · 36 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.11league 3.82
Red cards0.03league 0.17
Cards 5+17%league 36%
Fouls22.8league 25.6
Penalties0.25league 0.30
Home wins56%league 37%
Como2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L15 Dec 25A · AS Roma0–14
- L4 Oct 24A · Napoli1–31
Torino4 with this referee
Record1-3-0
Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.3
Pens for · against0 · 1
- D8 Feb 25H · Genoa1–12
- D5 Jan 25H · Parma0–02
- W18 May 24H · AC Milan3–11
- D2 Oct 23H · Verona0–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Como20 games · scored 29 · conceded 15
6
2
0-15
4
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
4
4
46-60
6
2
61-75
7
4
76-90
Torino21 games · scored 21 · conceded 34
2
3
0-15
4
8
16-30
4
7
31-45
3
3
46-60
3
7
61-75
5
6
76-90
Como10 games · scored 19 · conceded 10
3
1
0-15
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
3
3
46-60
4
1
61-75
5
3
76-90
Torino10 games · scored 11 · conceded 18
2
1
0-15
3
4
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
4
61-75
3
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
