Çorum FK
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Çorum FK52.2%fair odds 1.91
Draw24.6%fair odds 4.06
Alanyaspor23.1%fair odds 4.33
Expected goals1.76 – 1.10total 2.86
Likeliest score1–111.7%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Alanyaspor
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Çorum FK ↓ · Alanyaspor → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.7 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Çorum FK goals, columns Alanyaspor goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.7%8.57
- 2–19.8%10.25
- 1–09.5%10.56
- 2–08.9%11.29
- 0–06.3%15.89
- 1–26.1%16.39
- 3–15.7%17.45
- 0–15.7%17.54
- 2–25.4%18.61
- 3–05.2%19.22
Winning margin
13.1%
Çorum FK by 3+
fair 7.62
16.2%
Çorum FK by 2
fair 6.18
22.9%
Çorum FK by 1
fair 4.36
24.6%
Draw
fair 4.06
14.1%
Alanyaspor by 1
fair 7.08
6.3%
Alanyaspor by 2
fair 15.82
2.7%
Alanyaspor by 3+
fair 37.59
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
16%5+
Çorum FK goals
17%0
30%1
27%2
16%3
10%4+
Alanyaspor goals
33%0
37%1
20%2
7%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Çorum FK win | 52.2% | 51.9% | +0.3 pp |
| Draw | 24.6% | 24.6% | +0.1 pp |
| Alanyaspor win | 23.1% | 23.5% | -0.4 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 54.6% | 55.1% | -0.6 pp |
| Both teams score | 55.9% | 56.5% | -0.6 pp |
| Expected goals Çorum FK | 1.76 | 1.77 | -0.01 |
| Expected goals Alanyaspor | 1.10 | 1.12 | -0.02 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Çorum FK win52.2%1.91
- Draw24.6%4.06
- Alanyaspor win23.1%4.33
- Double chance Çorum FK or draw76.9%1.30
- Double chance Çorum FK or Alanyaspor75.4%1.33
- Double chance Alanyaspor or draw47.8%2.09
- Draw no bet Çorum FK69.3%1.44
- Draw no bet Alanyaspor30.7%3.26
Goals
- Over 0.593.7%1.07
- Over 1.578.5%1.27
- Over 2.554.6%1.83
- Over 3.532.2%3.10
- Over 4.516.2%6.16
- Under 1.521.5%4.66
- Under 2.545.4%2.20
- Under 3.567.8%1.48
Both teams to score
- Yes55.9%1.79
- No44.1%2.27
- Yes and over 2.544.2%2.26
- Çorum FK win and yes25.3%3.95
- Draw and yes18.3%5.45
- Alanyaspor win and yes12.2%8.18
Team goals
- Çorum FK over 0.582.8%1.21
- Çorum FK over 1.552.6%1.90
- Çorum FK over 2.525.9%3.86
- Alanyaspor over 0.566.8%1.50
- Alanyaspor over 1.530.2%3.32
- Alanyaspor over 2.510.0%10.01
- Çorum FK clean sheet33.2%3.01
- Alanyaspor clean sheet17.2%5.82
- Çorum FK win to nil26.9%3.71
- Alanyaspor win to nil10.9%9.19
Handicap
- Çorum FK −1.529.3%3.41
- Çorum FK −2.513.1%7.62
- Alanyaspor +1.570.7%1.41
- Alanyaspor +2.586.9%1.15
- Alanyaspor −1.59.0%11.13
- Çorum FK +1.591.0%1.10
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Süper Lig 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored46
Favourite won43.5%
Avg chance given to result38.4%
1X2 Brier0.629
Over 2.5 called right54.3%
BTTS called right45.7%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 7 | 38.6% | 42.9% |
| 40–50% | 20 | 44.9% | 30.0% |
| 50–60% | 11 | 55.3% | 45.5% |
| 60–70% | 5 | 65.0% | 60.0% |
| 70–80% | 3 | 75.1% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 20 of 46 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6103 | 0.6177 |
| Avg chance given to result | 38.8% | 38.9% |
| Favourite won | 50.0% | 45.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 20 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
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- ✗Alanyaspor 2–2 Goztepe45·25·30
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- ✓Besiktas 3–0 Erzurumspor FK65·20·15
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 46 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.