Çorum FK
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Çorum FK were slight favourites.
Çorum FK were the stronger side on L90 Strength (30 vs 23). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Çorum FK. Çorum FK had 7 days of rest, Alanyaspor 6.9 and had to travel 514 km.
Away travel514 kmRest days7 · 6.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Çorum FK53%
Draw23%
Alanyaspor24%
Çorum FK50%
Draw25%
Alanyaspor25%
Çorum FK53%
Draw24%
Alanyaspor24%
Çorum FK45%
Draw25%
Alanyaspor30%
Çorum FK53%
Draw23%
Alanyaspor24%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Çorum)
No weather data yet
RefereeAlper Akarsu
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.34
- Matches 29
Team strength
Çorum FK
Alanyaspor
30
L90 StrengthIn forecast
23
32
Current StrengthIn forecast
24
31
AttackIn forecast
18
36
DefenceIn forecast
24
41
Form indexContext
42
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAlanyaspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Çorum FKAlanyaspor
2.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
0.94
xGVia Att/Def
1.03
1.75
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.27
+1.46
Goals minus xGContext
+0.17
80%
Scored inContext
100%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
13.00
ShotsContext
11.20
4.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.60
37%
On target shareContext
23%
6.60
Shots in the boxContext
7.40
47%
Box shareContext
63%
19%
ConversionContext
11%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.40
17.60
Shots allowedContext
14.40
5.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
6.67
BlocksContext
3.80
4.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.60
68%
Save rateContext
78%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
472
PassesContext
325
408
Accurate passesContext
252
87%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.90
12.20
FoulsContext
16.00
10.60
Fouls sufferedContext
12.40
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
0.94
xGVia Att/Def
0.97
1.75
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.18
+1.46
Goals minus xGContext
+0.23
80%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
13.00
ShotsContext
11.10
4.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.60
37%
On target shareContext
32%
6.60
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
47%
Box shareContext
62%
19%
ConversionContext
11%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.00
17.60
Shots allowedContext
12.00
5.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
6.67
BlocksContext
3.67
4.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.10
68%
Save rateContext
71%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
472
PassesContext
372
408
Accurate passesContext
302
87%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.83
12.20
FoulsContext
14.70
10.60
Fouls sufferedContext
12.60
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Çorum FK
DLLWW
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km284 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 41 · 7 pts vs 8.0 for an average club · +1.1 vs expected
Alanyaspor
DWLWD
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel514 km1,780 km in 14d
Schedule load11%Low
Form 42 · 8 pts vs 8.9 for an average club · +1.8 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Çorum FK |
Alanyaspor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 11 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Süper Lig 2026-2027, 12 Sep | 6.9Süper Lig 2026-2027, 12 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 514 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 284 km | 1,780 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 22 | 21 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Çorum FK
Confirmed XI
1Marcos Felipe(G)
24A. Borza
6H. Smolčić
4S. Saatçı
11G. Sazdağı
16Fredy
20Y. Ramadani
89A. Kyziridis
10M. Diomande
7C. Ünder
19J. Ramírez
Alanyaspor
Confirmed XI
48Paulo Victor(G)
20F. Aksoy
5F. Aliti
3Nuno Lima
11Ruan
55B. Gezek
42G. Makouta
94F. Hadërgjonaj
16U. Hwang
22Paolo Fernandes
19Iván Cédric
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Çorum FK
Absences are shown before kick-off
Alanyaspor
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Çorum FK+0.2 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Alanyaspor-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Çorum FK · Home
1.50points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 0.50
Alanyaspor · Away
1.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Çorum FK | Alanyaspor |
|---|---|---|
| Eyüpspor | W 3–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| Besiktas | L 2–6 A | W 1–0 H |
| Points | 3 of 6 · 1.50 per game | 3 of 6 · 1.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Çorum FK | Alanyaspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.40 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 4.40 | 2.20 | 2.86 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 40% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Çorum FK | Alanyaspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.40 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 4.40 | 2.40 | 2.86 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 50% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 5 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Çorum FK | Alanyaspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.25 | 6.25 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.75 | 4.75 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 11.00 | 9.68 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 4/4 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 75% 3/4 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 2/4 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 3.40 | 3.90 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 1/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 1/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Çorum FK | Alanyaspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.25 | 6.57 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.75 | 4.57 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 11.14 | 9.68 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 4/4 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 75% 3/4 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 2/4 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 4.00 | 3.90 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 1/5 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 1/5 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Alper Akarsu 29 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.07league 3.80
Red cards0.10league 0.15
Cards 5+41%league 41%
Fouls23.1league 25.7
Penalties0.34league 0.33
Home wins38%league 43%
Çorum FKNo previous matches with this referee.
AlanyasporNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Çorum FK5 games · scored 12 · conceded 10
4
3
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
Alanyaspor5 games · scored 6 · conceded 5
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
4
2
61-75
1
76-90
Çorum FK5 games · scored 12 · conceded 10
4
3
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
Alanyaspor10 games · scored 12 · conceded 12
2
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
46-60
5
3
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
