Çorum FK
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Çorum FK48.9%fair odds 2.05
Draw25.9%fair odds 3.86
Kasimpasa25.2%fair odds 3.96
Expected goals1.62 – 1.10total 2.73
Likeliest score1–112.3%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Kasimpasa
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Çorum FK ↓ · Kasimpasa → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 6.6 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.3 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Çorum FK goals, columns Kasimpasa goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.3%8.11
- 1–010.0%10.01
- 2–19.5%10.51
- 2–08.6%11.60
- 0–07.2%13.97
- 0–16.6%15.17
- 1–26.5%15.47
- 2–25.3%19.05
- 3–15.2%19.41
- 3–04.7%21.42
Winning margin
11.0%
Çorum FK by 3+
fair 9.12
15.1%
Çorum FK by 2
fair 6.63
22.8%
Çorum FK by 1
fair 4.38
25.9%
Draw
fair 3.86
15.3%
Kasimpasa by 1
fair 6.53
7.0%
Kasimpasa by 2
fair 14.37
3.0%
Kasimpasa by 3+
fair 33.70
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
17%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
14%5+
Çorum FK goals
20%0
32%1
26%2
14%3
8%4+
Kasimpasa goals
33%0
37%1
20%2
7%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Çorum FK win | 48.9% | 48.7% | +0.2 pp |
| Draw | 25.9% | 25.6% | +0.3 pp |
| Kasimpasa win | 25.2% | 25.7% | -0.5 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 51.3% | 52.8% | -1.5 pp |
| Both teams score | 54.3% | 55.5% | -1.2 pp |
| Expected goals Çorum FK | 1.62 | 1.65 | -0.03 |
| Expected goals Kasimpasa | 1.10 | 1.14 | -0.04 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Çorum FK win48.9%2.05
- Draw25.9%3.86
- Kasimpasa win25.2%3.96
- Double chance Çorum FK or draw74.8%1.34
- Double chance Çorum FK or Kasimpasa74.1%1.35
- Double chance Kasimpasa or draw51.1%1.96
- Draw no bet Çorum FK65.9%1.52
- Draw no bet Kasimpasa34.1%2.94
Goals
- Over 0.592.8%1.08
- Over 1.576.3%1.31
- Over 2.551.3%1.95
- Over 3.529.2%3.42
- Over 4.514.1%7.08
- Under 1.523.7%4.21
- Under 2.548.7%2.05
- Under 3.570.8%1.41
Both teams to score
- Yes54.3%1.84
- No45.7%2.19
- Yes and over 2.541.9%2.38
- Çorum FK win and yes22.8%4.38
- Draw and yes18.8%5.33
- Kasimpasa win and yes12.7%7.89
Team goals
- Çorum FK over 0.580.3%1.25
- Çorum FK over 1.548.3%2.07
- Çorum FK over 2.522.3%4.49
- Kasimpasa over 0.566.8%1.50
- Kasimpasa over 1.530.2%3.31
- Kasimpasa over 2.510.0%9.97
- Çorum FK clean sheet33.2%3.02
- Kasimpasa clean sheet19.7%5.07
- Çorum FK win to nil26.0%3.84
- Kasimpasa win to nil12.5%7.97
Handicap
- Çorum FK −1.526.0%3.84
- Çorum FK −2.511.0%9.12
- Kasimpasa +1.574.0%1.35
- Kasimpasa +2.589.0%1.12
- Kasimpasa −1.59.9%10.07
- Çorum FK +1.590.1%1.11
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Süper Lig 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored10
Favourite won40.0%
Avg chance given to result37.3%
1X2 Brier0.667
Over 2.5 called right60.0%
BTTS called right50.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40–50% | 5 | 44.1% | 20.0% |
| 50–60% | 1 | 57.8% | 100.0% |
| 60–70% | 4 | 65.1% | 50.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 0 of 10 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | — | — |
| Avg chance given to result | — | — |
| Favourite won | — | — |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off.
No verified pre-match bookmaker odds are available for comparison yet.
Latest results
- ✓Erzurumspor FK 0–4 Galatasaray20·22·58
- ✗Samsunspor 3–3 Goztepe47·25·28
- ✓Amed 3–0 Erzurumspor FK45·25·30
- ✓Besiktas 1–0 Eyüpspor65·20·15
- ✓Istanbul Basaksehir 2–0 Kocaelispor64·21·16
- ✗Gazişehir Gaziantep 1–1 Alanyaspor40·26·34
- ✗Genclerbirligi 2–1 Fenerbahce16·20·64
- ✗Kasimpasa 1–1 Trabzonspor29·26·45
- ✗Konyaspor 0–1 Rizespor43·25·32
- ✗Galatasaray 2–2 Çorum FK68·19·14
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 10 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.