Coventry vs Hull City – 29 Aug 2026

Premier League Gameweek 2 Sat, Aug 29 · 15:00 The Coventry Building Society Arena, Coventry, West Midlands

Coventry 18th · 0 pts · 1 played L

0–1Full time

Hull City 6th · 3 pts · 1 played W

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Coventry were slight favourites.

Coventry were the stronger side on L90 Strength (52 vs 33). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Hull City. Coventry had 7.8 days of rest, Hull City 7.1 and had to travel 168 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel168 kmRest days7.8 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 1

Coventry55%

Draw24%

Hull City22%

Expected goals 1.74 – 1.00

Coventry56%

Draw23%

Hull City21%

Expected goals 1.78 – 1.00

Coventry54%

Draw24%

Hull City22%

Expected goals 1.71 – 1.00

Coventry47%

Draw25%

Hull City27%

Expected goals 1.55 – 1.12

Coventry54%

Draw24%

Hull City22%

Expected goals 1.75 – 1.02

Over 2.5 51% Both score 52% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Coventry, West Midlands)

17°CLight rain

Precipitation 3.6 mm
Wind 10 km/h
Humidity 97%

RefereeJosh Smith

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.20
Matches 137

Team strength

Coventry

Hull City

52 L90 StrengthIn forecast 33

51 Current StrengthIn forecast 37

47 AttackIn forecast 37

59 DefenceIn forecast 50

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Coventry

Attack—

Defense risk—

Hull City

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Coventry

Hull City

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90

1.50 xGVia Att/Def 1.11

1.24 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.41

+0.50 Goals minus xGContext +0.09

70% Scored inContext 80%

40% Clean sheetsContext 40%

12.80 ShotsContext 11.40

4.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

32% On target shareContext 35%

9.33 Shots in the boxContext 7.22

69% Box shareContext 61%

16% ConversionContext 11%

2.71 OffsidesContext 2.00

10.40 Shots allowedContext 13.30

3.22 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.90

3.50 BlocksContext 4.10

1.78 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.90

55% Save rateContext 74%

57% PossessionIn forecast 43%

461 PassesContext 309

386 Accurate passesContext 216

84% Pass accuracyContext 70%

6.98 Team ratingContext 6.91

10.00 FoulsContext 9.60

12.60 Fouls sufferedContext 10.60

1.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.20

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Coventry L

Rest7.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km276 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 47 · 0 pts vs 0.3 for an average club · -0.3 vs expected

L21 AugA · Arsenal0–30.4 xPts

Hull City W

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel168 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 68 · 3 pts vs 0.9 for an average club · +2.4 vs expected

W22 AugH · Manchester United2–00.6 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Coventry	Hull City
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.8Premier League 2026-2027, 21 Aug	7.1Premier League 2026-2027, 22 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	168 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	276 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 1	0 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	7	7.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Coventry Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

19C. Rushworth(G)

3J. Dasilva 24A. Amenda 4B. Thomas 27M. van Ewijk

6M. Grimes 8C. Yirenkyi

10E. Mason-Clark 5J. Rudoni 18L. Tchaouna

14T. Awoniyi

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Hull City Confirmed XI

5-4-1

19K. Tzolakis(G)

3R. Giles 32N. Mendy 15J. Egan 6S. Ajayi 2L. Coyle

21E. Stroud 5H. Morita 27R. Slater 10M. Belloumi

9O. McBurnie

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Coventry Absences are shown before kick-off

Hull City Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Coventry+0.9 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Hull City-0.5 pp

Home / Away this season

Coventry · Home No home games yet this season.

Hull City · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

2 Coventry wins5 draws3 Hull City wins

Goals per game1.00 – 1.20 Over 2.530% Both scored60% Clean sheets30% · 30%

6 Apr 2026Hull City0–0Coventry
9 Aug 2025Coventry0–0Hull City
14 Apr 2025Hull City1–1Coventry
14 Dec 2024Coventry2–1Hull City
24 Apr 2024Coventry2–3Hull City
15 Sep 2023Hull City1–1Coventry

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Coventry	Hull City	Forecast
Scored per game	0.00	2.00
Conceded per game	3.00	0.00
Match goals	3.00	2.00	2.73
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	0%	51%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	0%	52%
Clean sheets	0%	100%
Failed to score	100%	0%
Games	1	1

	Coventry	Hull City	Forecast
Scored per game	0.00	2.00
Conceded per game	3.00	0.00
Match goals	3.00	2.00	2.73
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	0%	51%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	0%	52%
Clean sheets	0%	100%
Failed to score	100%	0%
Games	1	1

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Coventry	Hull City	League
Corners
Corners won	2.00	1.00
Corners conceded	8.00	6.00
Match total	10.00	7.00	8.36
Over 8.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Over 9.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	1.00	2.00
Opponent cards	1.00	1.00
Match total	2.00	3.00	4.00
Over 3.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1

	Coventry	Hull City	League
Corners
Corners won	4.56	4.56
Corners conceded	3.11	5.78
Match total	7.67	10.34	8.36
Over 8.5	33% 3/9	44% 4/9
Over 9.5	22% 2/9	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	11% 1/9	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	1.00	2.30
Opponent cards	2.00	1.70
Match total	3.00	4.00	4.00
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Josh Smith 137 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.82league 3.67

Red cards0.15league 0.08

Cards 5+39%league 33%

Fouls21.7league 23.8

Penalties0.20league 0.25

Home wins43%league 58%

Coventry9 with this referee

Record2-3-4 Cards · opp.0.9 · 1.8 Pens for · against0 · 0

L31 Jan 26A · QPR1–22
D1 Jan 26A · Charlton1–12
W15 Feb 25A · Sheffield Wednesday2–11
L19 Oct 24A · Preston0–10
L4 May 24H · QPR1–22

Hull City14 with this referee

Record8-2-4 Cards · opp.2.2 · 1.6 Pens for · against2 · 1 Reds2

W2 May 26H · Norwich2–12
L14 Mar 26A · West Brom0–35
W24 Jan 26H · Swansea2–13
W29 Nov 25A · Stoke City2–12
W1 Nov 25A · Norwich2–02

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.