Coventry
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Premier League
Gameweek 2 Sat, Aug 29 · 15:00
The Coventry Building Society Arena, Coventry, West Midlands
Coventry54.2%fair odds 1.84
Draw24.8%fair odds 4.03
Hull City20.9%fair odds 4.78
Expected goals1.74 – 1.00total 2.73
Likeliest score1–111.8%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Hull City
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Coventry ↓ · Hull City → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 11.8 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Coventry goals, columns Hull City goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.8%8.45
- 1–010.7%9.35
- 2–09.8%10.19
- 2–19.8%10.23
- 0–07.1%14.11
- 0–15.9%17.04
- 3–05.7%17.58
- 3–15.7%17.65
- 1–25.6%17.87
- 2–24.9%20.55
Winning margin
13.6%
Coventry by 3+
fair 7.33
16.9%
Coventry by 2
fair 5.93
23.7%
Coventry by 1
fair 4.21
24.8%
Draw
fair 4.03
13.3%
Hull City by 1
fair 7.50
5.5%
Hull City by 2
fair 18.09
2.1%
Hull City by 3+
fair 48.21
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
17%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
14%5+
Coventry goals
18%0
31%1
27%2
15%3
10%4+
Hull City goals
37%0
37%1
18%2
6%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coventry win | 54.2% | 53.7% | +0.5 pp |
| Draw | 24.8% | 24.8% | +0.1 pp |
| Hull City win | 20.9% | 21.5% | -0.6 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 51.5% | 52.3% | -0.8 pp |
| Both teams score | 52.6% | 53.5% | -0.9 pp |
| Expected goals Coventry | 1.74 | 1.75 | -0.01 |
| Expected goals Hull City | 1.00 | 1.02 | -0.03 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Coventry win54.2%1.84
- Draw24.8%4.03
- Hull City win20.9%4.78
- Double chance Coventry or draw79.1%1.26
- Double chance Coventry or Hull City75.2%1.33
- Double chance Hull City or draw45.8%2.18
- Draw no bet Coventry72.2%1.39
- Draw no bet Hull City27.8%3.59
Goals
- Over 0.592.9%1.08
- Over 1.576.4%1.31
- Over 2.551.5%1.94
- Over 3.529.4%3.41
- Over 4.514.2%7.03
- Under 1.523.6%4.23
- Under 2.548.5%2.06
- Under 3.570.6%1.42
Both teams to score
- Yes52.6%1.90
- No47.4%2.11
- Yes and over 2.540.7%2.45
- Coventry win and yes24.4%4.10
- Draw and yes17.7%5.64
- Hull City win and yes10.5%9.57
Team goals
- Coventry over 0.582.4%1.21
- Coventry over 1.551.9%1.93
- Coventry over 2.525.3%3.95
- Hull City over 0.563.1%1.59
- Hull City over 1.526.3%3.81
- Hull City over 2.58.0%12.58
- Coventry clean sheet36.9%2.71
- Hull City clean sheet17.6%5.69
- Coventry win to nil29.9%3.35
- Hull City win to nil10.5%9.54
Handicap
- Coventry −1.530.5%3.28
- Coventry −2.513.6%7.33
- Hull City +1.569.5%1.44
- Hull City +2.586.4%1.16
- Hull City −1.57.6%13.16
- Coventry +1.592.4%1.08
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Premier League 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored12
Favourite won41.7%
Avg chance given to result39.0%
1X2 Brier0.627
Over 2.5 called right75.0%
BTTS called right58.3%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 3 | 38.1% | 0.0% |
| 40–50% | 4 | 45.7% | 50.0% |
| 50–60% | 3 | 55.9% | 66.7% |
| 60–70% | 1 | 68.6% | 0.0% |
| 70–80% | 1 | 79.6% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 2 of 12 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6822 | 0.6526 |
| Avg chance given to result | 36.3% | 40.0% |
| Favourite won | 50.0% | 50.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 2 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 12 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.