Cremonese
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Fiorentina were slight favourites.
Fiorentina were the stronger side on L90 Strength (40 vs 19). Absences weigh more on Cremonese. Cremonese had 8.3 days of rest, Fiorentina 8.2 and had to travel 179 km.
Away travel179 kmRest days8.3 · 8.2Matches / 14d1 · 2
Cremonese27%
Draw28%
Fiorentina45%
Cremonese29%
Draw27%
Fiorentina44%
Cremonese28%
Draw29%
Fiorentina44%
Cremonese22%
Draw27%
Fiorentina52%
Cremonese28%
Draw27%
Fiorentina45%
Over 2.5 44%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Cremona)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyMarco Di Bello
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.39
- Matches 71
Team strength
Cremonese
Fiorentina
19
L90 StrengthIn forecast
40
20
Current StrengthIn forecast
39
16
AttackIn forecast
42
30
DefenceIn forecast
34
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFiorentina
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
CremoneseFiorentina
0.79
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.07
1.43
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
0.92
xGVia Att/Def
1.44
1.61
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.32
-0.13
Goals minus xGContext
-0.37
50%
Scored inContext
71%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
18%
8.75
ShotsContext
13.39
3.22
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.59
36%
On target shareContext
26%
5.54
Shots in the boxContext
8.50
58%
Box shareContext
62%
9%
ConversionContext
8%
2.29
OffsidesContext
2.25
16.64
Shots allowedContext
12.46
5.46
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.77
4.89
BlocksContext
3.29
4.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
75%
Save rateContext
65%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
368
PassesContext
432
285
Accurate passesContext
367
78%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.80
13.43
FoulsContext
11.96
12.61
Fouls sufferedContext
16.14
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.32
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.04
0.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
0.85
xGVia Att/Def
1.55
1.77
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.05
-0.45
Goals minus xGContext
-0.15
30%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
9.90
ShotsContext
14.60
3.44
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.67
31%
On target shareContext
29%
6.89
Shots in the boxContext
8.80
63%
Box shareContext
60%
4%
ConversionContext
10%
2.29
OffsidesContext
2.00
17.70
Shots allowedContext
10.90
6.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.43
5.10
BlocksContext
3.11
4.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.13
68%
Save rateContext
66%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
367
PassesContext
464
283
Accurate passesContext
397
77%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.67
Team ratingContext
6.85
14.30
FoulsContext
11.60
13.00
Fouls sufferedContext
17.40
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Cremonese
Rest8.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,702 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Fiorentina
Rest8.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel179 km598 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Cremonese |
Fiorentina |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.3Serie A 2025-2026, 8 Mar | 8.2Serie A 2025-2026, 8 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 179 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,702 km | 598 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.8 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Cremonese
Confirmed XI
1E. Audero(G)
5S. Luperto
23F. Ceccherini
55F. Folino
22R. Floriani Mussolini
29Y. Maleh
38W. Bondo
2M. Thorsby
4T. Barbieri
9M. Đurić
90F. Bonazzoli
Fiorentina
Confirmed XI
43David de Gea(G)
21R. Gosens
6L. Ranieri
5M. Pongračić
2Dodô
4M. Brescianini
44N. Fagioli
8R. Mandragora
10A. Guðmundsson
91R. Piccoli
65F. Parisi
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Cremonese
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Fiorentina
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Cremonese-0.6 pp
- Draw-0.5 pp
- Fiorentina+1.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Cremonese · Home
0.92points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-6-5
- Scored
- 0.85
- Conceded
- 1.31
Fiorentina · Away
0.79points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-5-7
- Scored
- 0.86
- Conceded
- 1.64
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Cremonese | Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| Lecce | L 1–2 AW 2–0 H | L 0–1 H |
| AC Milan | L 0–2 HW 2–1 A | D 1–1 HL 1–2 A |
| AS Roma | L 0–3 AL 1–3 H | L 1–2 H |
| Genoa | D 0–0 HW 2–0 A | D 2–2 A |
| Atalanta | L 1–2 AD 1–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Inter | L 0–2 HL 1–4 A | L 0–3 A |
| Sassuolo | L 0–1 AW 3–2 H | L 1–3 A |
| Verona | D 0–0 HD 0–0 A | L 1–2 H |
| Juventus | L 0–5 AL 1–2 H | D 1–1 H |
| Cagliari | D 2–2 H | L 1–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Napoli | L 0–2 H | L 1–2 AL 1–3 H |
| Lazio | D 0–0 A | D 2–2 A |
| Torino | L 0–1 A | D 2–2 HD 0–0 A |
| Bologna | W 3–1 A | W 2–1 AD 2–2 H |
| Pisa | L 0–1 A | W 1–0 HD 0–0 A |
| Udinese | D 1–1 H | L 0–3 AW 5–1 H |
| Como | D 1–1 A | W 2–1 AL 1–2 H |
| Parma | D 0–0 H | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Points | 24 of 81 · 0.89 per game | 22 of 81 · 0.81 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 Cremonese wins0 draws3 Fiorentina wins
Goals per game0.67 – 2.00
Over 2.533%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets0% · 67%
- 4 Jan 2026Fiorentina1–0Cremonese
- 12 Mar 2023Cremonese0–2Fiorentina
- 14 Aug 2022Fiorentina3–2Cremonese
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Cremonese | Fiorentina | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.79 | 1.07 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.43 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.21 | 2.57 | 2.45 |
| Over 1.5 | 68% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 39% | 61% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 21% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 64% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 18% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 29% | |
| Games | 28 | 28 |
| Cremonese | Fiorentina | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.40 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.90 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 2.60 | 2.45 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 70% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 70% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Cremonese | Fiorentina | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.44 | 4.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.59 | 4.44 | |
| Match total | 10.03 | 9.00 | 8.74 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 18/27 | 56% 15/27 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 12/27 | 52% 14/27 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 8/27 | 26% 7/27 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.04 | 2.43 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.46 | 2.36 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 4.79 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 39% 11/28 | 71% 20/28 | |
| Over 4.5 | 21% 6/28 | 61% 17/28 | |
| Cremonese | Fiorentina | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.50 | 5.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.70 | 3.44 | |
| Match total | 10.20 | 8.66 | 8.74 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.70 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 2.50 | 5.30 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 10% 1/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Marco Di Bello Italy · 71 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.97league 3.75
Red cards0.18league 0.19
Cards 5+46%league 36%
Fouls26.2league 25.2
Penalties0.39league 0.30
Home wins35%league 40%
Cremonese2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L22 Feb 26A · AS Roma0–31
- D27 Sep 25A · Como1–14
Fiorentina4 with this referee
Record2-0-2
Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.8
Pens for · against1 · 1
- L23 Feb 25A · Verona0–13
- L25 Nov 23A · AC Milan0–12
- W2 Oct 23H · Cagliari3–01
- W4 Mar 23H · AC Milan2–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Cremonese28 games · scored 22 · conceded 40
3
7
0-15
2
5
16-30
4
8
31-45
4
6
46-60
2
7
61-75
7
7
76-90
Fiorentina27 games · scored 29 · conceded 40
3
6
0-15
4
5
16-30
3
5
31-45
9
8
46-60
6
6
61-75
4
10
76-90
Cremonese10 games · scored 4 · conceded 19
1
4
0-15
1
3
16-30
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
61-75
1
5
76-90
Fiorentina10 games · scored 14 · conceded 15
1
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
31-45
5
4
46-60
3
1
61-75
4
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
