Serie A Gameweek 29 Sun, Mar 15 2026 · 19:45 Stadio Olimpico, Roma
Lazio
1–0 Full time · HT 1–0 xG 0.41 – 1.18
AC Milan
  • G. Isaksen 26’
  • M. Sarri 90+8’
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Match story · our forecast vs the result iModel is our forecast, published before the match and locked at kick-off: expected goals for each side and the probability of every outcome.

xG after the match measures the quality of the chances each side actually created. It is known only after the final whistle, so it is not a forecast.

Isaksen goal decides it for Lazio

AC Milan entered as narrow favourites, but Lazio won 1–0 through a Isaksen goal. Lazio played with ten men from the 90th minute after Sarri was sent off. Lazio won despite the lower xG; AC Milan created the better chances (1.18 vs 0.41). On the chances created, AC Milan deserved more: 2.0 expected points against the 0 points they took.

Lazio ✓27%
Draw29%
AC Milan44%

Model vs reality

Lazio goals
1
Model 1.01 · xG 0.41
AC Milan goals
0
Model 1.35 · xG 1.18
Total goals
1
Model 2.36 · xG 1.59
Score 1–0
9%
Most likely 1–1 (14%)
Over 2.5
No
Model 42%
Both scored
No
Model 48%
Match facts
★ Player of the matchMario GilaLazio
8.3
  • RefereeMarco Guida
  • VenueStadio Olimpico
  • Table before kick-offLazio 10th · AC Milan 2nd

Timeline

  1. G. Isaksen 1–0Assist A. Marušić
    26’
  2. Half time · 1–0
  3. P. EstupiñánYellow card · Roughing
    55’
  4. ⇄ D. BartesaghiFor P. Estupiñán
    57’
  5. ⇄ Z. AthekameFor O. Tomori
    57’
  6. ⇄ N. FüllkrugFor Rafael Leão
    66’
  7. ⇄ C. NkunkuFor Y. Fofana
    66’
  8. ⇄ B. DiaFor D. Maldini
    67’
  9. ⇄ PedroFor G. Isaksen
    67’
  10. E. MottaYellow card · Delay of game
    70’
  11. Nuno TavaresYellow card · Tripping
    81’
  12. ⇄ M. CancellieriFor M. Zaccagni
    83’
  13. ⇄ S. RicciFor A. Saelemaekers
    85’
  14. ⇄ R. BelahyaneFor K. Taylor
    90’
  15. PedroYellow card · Delay of game
    90+5’
  16. PatricYellow card · Tripping
    90+5’
  17. M. SarriRed card · Unsportsmanlike conduct
    90+8’
  18. Full time · 1–0

Team stats

Lazio7 shots · 2 in box, 5 outside
AC Milan16 shots · 12 in box, 4 outside
LazioAC Milan
42% Possession 58%
0.41 Expected goals (xG) 1.18
0.70 Expected points (xPts) 1.98
7 Shots 16
2 Shots on target 3
2 Shots off target 7
3 Blocked shots 6
2 Shots inside the box 12
5 Shots outside the box 4
405 Passes 552
85% Pass accuracy 89%
1 Corners 9
3 Goalkeeper saves 2
6 Fouls 19
3 Offsides 3
4 Yellow cards 1
1 Red cards 0
7.34 Team rating 6.70

Line-ups

Lazio 4-3-3

407.2 E. Motta(G)
177.7 Nuno Tavares 257.6 Oliver Provstgaard 348.3★ Mario Gila 776.9 A. Marušić A
247.0 K. Taylor ↓90’ 47.7 Patric 76.7 O. Dele-Bashiru
107.2 M. Zaccagni ↓83’ 276.9 D. Maldini ↓67’ 187.9 G. Isaksen ↓67’
  • 40E. Motta (G)7.2
  • 17Nuno Tavares7.7
  • 25Oliver Provstgaard7.6
  • 34Mario Gila ★8.3
  • 77A. MarušićA6.9
  • 24K. Taylor↓90’7.0
  • 4Patric7.7
  • 7O. Dele-Bashiru6.7
  • 10M. Zaccagni↓83’7.2
  • 27D. Maldini↓67’6.9
  • 18G. Isaksen↓67’7.9

Substitutes used

  • 9Pedro↑67’6.6
  • 19B. Dia↑67’6.7
  • 21R. Belahyane↑90’
  • 22M. Cancellieri↑83’7.2

Unused: A. Furlanetto, Giacomo Giacomone, E. Hysaj, L. Pellegrini, M. Lazzari, A. Przyborek, P. Ratkov, T. Noslin

AC Milan 3-5-2

167.2 M. Maignan(G)
317.3 S. Pavlović 56.7 K. De Winter 236.5 O. Tomori ↓57’
26.3 P. Estupiñán ↓57’ 306.3 A. Jashari 146.9 L. Modrić 196.6 Y. Fofana ↓66’ 567.2 A. Saelemaekers ↓85’
116.2 C. Pulišić 106.2 Rafael Leão ↓66’
  • 16M. Maignan (G)7.2
  • 31S. Pavlović7.3
  • 5K. De Winter6.7
  • 23O. Tomori↓57’6.5
  • 2P. Estupiñán↓57’6.3
  • 30A. Jashari6.3
  • 14L. Modrić6.9
  • 19Y. Fofana↓66’6.6
  • 56A. Saelemaekers↓85’7.2
  • 11C. Pulišić6.2
  • 10Rafael Leão↓66’6.2

Substitutes used

  • 33D. Bartesaghi↑57’6.9
  • 24Z. Athekame↑57’7.0
  • 18C. Nkunku↑66’6.2
  • 9N. Füllkrug↑66’6.5
  • 4S. Ricci↑85’6.7

Unused: M. Pittarella, P. Terracciano, D. Odogu

Player stats

Top rated
Mario GilaLazio8.3
2nd
G. IsaksenLazio7.9
3rd
Nuno TavaresLazio7.7

Lazio

PlayerMinGAShotsKPPassTklIntDrbFoulsRating
E. Motta G 90 0 0 3 sv 0 50% 24 0 0 0/0 0/0 7.2
Nuno Tavares D 90 0 0 0 (0) 1 81% 43 3 2 1/2 2/1 7.7
Oliver Provstgaard D 90 0 0 0 (0) 1 91% 44 1 0 0/0 0/0 7.6
Mario Gila D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 95% 62 2 2 0/0 0/1 8.3
A. Marušić D 90 0 1 0 (0) 1 87% 45 1 0 0/2 1/2 6.9
K. Taylor M 90 0 0 1 (0) 1 88% 32 2 1 0/1 0/2 7.0
Patric D 90 0 0 1 (0) 0 89% 63 0 0 0/0 0/1 7.7
O. Dele-Bashiru M 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 89% 19 1 0 0/0 0/1 6.7
M. Zaccagni M 83 0 0 0 (0) 1 86% 21 2 1 1/1 1/3 7.2
D. Maldini F 67 0 0 1 (1) 1 83% 12 2 0 0/2 1/4 6.9
G. Isaksen F 67 1 0 1 (1) 0 77% 22 0 1 3/5 1/2 7.9
Pedro F 23 0 0 0 (0) 0 78% 9 1 1 0/1 0/0 6.6
B. Dia F 23 0 0 0 (0) 0 100% 3 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.7
R. Belahyane M 1 0 0 0 (0) 0 100% 2 0 0 0/0 0/0 —
M. Cancellieri F 7 0 0 0 (0) 0 75% 4 0 1 1/1 0/1 7.2

AC Milan

PlayerMinGAShotsKPPassTklIntDrbFoulsRating
M. Maignan G 90 0 0 2 sv 0 91% 34 0 0 0/0 0/0 7.2
S. Pavlović D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 95% 61 5 1 1/2 2/0 7.3
K. De Winter D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 96% 80 2 0 0/0 4/1 6.7
O. Tomori D 57 0 0 0 (0) 0 91% 34 2 3 0/0 2/0 6.5
P. Estupiñán D 57 0 0 1 (0) 0 94% 35 0 0 0/0 1/0 6.3
A. Jashari M 90 0 0 0 (0) 1 86% 58 1 2 1/3 0/1 6.3
L. Modrić M 90 0 0 2 (0) 0 89% 76 1 1 0/0 2/0 6.9
Y. Fofana M 66 0 0 1 (1) 2 84% 25 0 0 0/0 1/0 6.6
A. Saelemaekers F 85 0 0 0 (0) 6 81% 52 1 1 3/5 3/1 7.2
C. Pulišić M 90 0 0 3 (1) 3 88% 48 1 0 0/3 1/1 6.2
Rafael Leão F 66 0 0 2 (1) 0 85% 13 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.2
D. Bartesaghi D 33 0 0 0 (0) 0 94% 18 1 0 0/0 1/1 6.9
Z. Athekame D 33 0 0 1 (0) 0 89% 9 1 0 0/1 1/0 7.0
C. Nkunku F 24 0 0 0 (0) 0 50% 8 0 0 0/0 1/0 6.2
N. Füllkrug F 24 0 0 0 (0) 0 — 0 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.5
S. Ricci M 5 0 0 0 (0) 1 100% 1 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.7

Match data from eScored. Ratings are the data provider's 0–10 match ratings; 7.2 and above is a strong game, 8+ is rare.