Cremonese
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Cremonese were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Cremonese had 5.7 days of rest, Lecce 7 and had to travel 851 km.
Away travel851 kmRest days5.7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Cremonese41%
Draw29%
Lecce30%
Cremonese42%
Draw27%
Lecce31%
Cremonese41%
Draw29%
Lecce30%
Cremonese34%
Draw29%
Lecce37%
Cremonese42%
Draw27%
Lecce31%
Over 2.5 43%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Cremona)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyGiuseppe Mucera
Team strength
Cremonese
Lecce
23
L90 StrengthIn forecast
24
20
Current StrengthIn forecast
28
16
AttackIn forecast
36
30
DefenceIn forecast
30
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLecce
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
CremoneseLecce
1.23
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.77
1.31
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.31
0.98
xGVia Att/Def
0.75
1.57
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.28
+0.25
Goals minus xGContext
+0.02
77%
Scored inContext
54%
23%
Clean sheetsContext
38%
8.08
ShotsContext
9.38
3.31
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
41%
On target shareContext
30%
5.00
Shots in the boxContext
5.00
58%
Box shareContext
55%
15%
ConversionContext
8%
2.50
OffsidesContext
1.30
16.23
Shots allowedContext
12.31
5.23
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.54
4.58
BlocksContext
3.08
4.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.23
78%
Save rateContext
71%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
365
PassesContext
341
285
Accurate passesContext
262
78%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.75
11.85
FoulsContext
12.69
12.62
Fouls sufferedContext
14.23
2.15
Yellow cardsContext
1.62
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
0.88
xGVia Att/Def
0.84
1.64
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.26
+0.22
Goals minus xGContext
+0.06
80%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
8.40
ShotsContext
9.60
3.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.10
38%
On target shareContext
32%
5.00
Shots in the boxContext
5.10
59%
Box shareContext
54%
13%
ConversionContext
9%
2.88
OffsidesContext
1.29
16.10
Shots allowedContext
12.20
4.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
4.56
BlocksContext
3.30
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
75%
Save rateContext
74%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
359
PassesContext
340
277
Accurate passesContext
259
77%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.82
12.50
FoulsContext
13.60
12.10
Fouls sufferedContext
15.00
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Cremonese
Rest5.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km252 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Lecce
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel851 km1,008 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Cremonese |
Lecce |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.7Serie A 2025-2026, 1 Dec | 7Serie A 2025-2026, 30 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 851 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 252 km | 1,008 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 5.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Cremonese
Confirmed XI
1E. Audero(G)
15M. Bianchetti
6F. Baschirotto
24F. Terracciano
22R. Floriani Mussolini
27J. Vandeputte
38W. Bondo
32M. Payero
4T. Barbieri
10J. Vardy
90F. Bonazzoli
Lecce
Confirmed XI
30W. Falcone(G)
25A. Gallo
44Tiago Gabriel
4E. Gaspar
17Danilo Veiga
29L. Coulibaly
20Y. Ramadani
19L. Banda
10M. Berisha
50S. Pierotti
9N. Štulić
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Cremonese
Absences are shown before kick-off
Lecce
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Cremonese+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Lecce+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Cremonese · Home
1.00points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-2
- Scored
- 1.17
- Conceded
- 1.50
Lecce · Away
1.17points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-3
- Scored
- 0.83
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 8 this season
| Opponent | Cremonese | Lecce |
|---|---|---|
| Bologna | W 3–1 A | D 2–2 H |
| Genoa | W 2–0 A | D 0–0 A |
| Atalanta | D 1–1 H | L 1–4 A |
| Udinese | D 1–1 H | L 2–3 A |
| Parma | D 0–0 H | W 1–0 A |
| Verona | D 0–0 A | D 0–0 H |
| Sassuolo | W 3–2 H | D 0–0 H |
| AC Milan | W 2–1 A | L 0–2 H |
| Points | 16 of 24 · 2.00 per game | 7 of 24 · 0.88 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 Cremonese wins1 draws1 Lecce wins
Goals per game0.50 – 1.50
Over 2.50%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 4 Feb 2023Cremonese0–2Lecce
- 2 Oct 2022Lecce1–1Cremonese
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Cremonese | Lecce | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.23 | 0.77 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.31 | 1.31 | |
| Match goals | 2.54 | 2.08 | 2.40 |
| Over 1.5 | 77% | 54% | |
| Over 2.5 | 46% | 38% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 31% | 23% | |
| Both teams scored | 69% | 38% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 23% | 38% | |
| Failed to score | 23% | 46% | |
| Games | 13 | 13 |
| Cremonese | Lecce | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 40% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Cremonese | Lecce | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.31 | 4.92 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.38 | 5.23 | |
| Match total | 9.69 | 10.15 | 8.85 |
| Over 8.5 | 62% 8/13 | 85% 11/13 | |
| Over 9.5 | 31% 4/13 | 62% 8/13 | |
| Over 10.5 | 23% 3/13 | 38% 5/13 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.15 | 1.62 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.47 | 4.03 |
| Over 3.5 | 62% 8/13 | 62% 8/13 | |
| Over 4.5 | 38% 5/13 | 38% 5/13 | |
| Cremonese | Lecce | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.50 | 5.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.30 | 5.20 | |
| Match total | 9.80 | 10.30 | 8.85 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.90 | 4.03 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Cremonese13 games · scored 16 · conceded 17
2
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
4
4
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
6
61-75
5
1
76-90
Lecce13 games · scored 10 · conceded 17
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
1
4
31-45
1
2
46-60
6
61-75
3
3
76-90
Cremonese10 games · scored 11 · conceded 14
2
2
0-15
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
4
61-75
4
1
76-90
Lecce10 games · scored 9 · conceded 11
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
