Cremonese
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Parma were the stronger side on L90 Strength (32 vs 18). Cremonese had 5.9 days of rest, Parma 8 and had to travel 44 km.
Away travel44 kmRest days5.9 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Cremonese33%
Draw29%
Parma38%
Cremonese33%
Draw27%
Parma39%
Cremonese33%
Draw29%
Parma38%
Cremonese27%
Draw28%
Parma45%
Cremonese34%
Draw27%
Parma39%
Over 2.5 42%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Cremona)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyFederico La Penna
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.30
- Matches 37
Team strength
Cremonese
Parma
18
L90 StrengthIn forecast
32
20
Current StrengthIn forecast
28
16
AttackIn forecast
20
30
DefenceIn forecast
33
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisParma
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
CremoneseParma
1.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.33
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.67
1.33
xGVia Att/Def
1.08
1.33
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.44
+0.34
Goals minus xGContext
-0.75
67%
Scored inContext
33%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
7.00
ShotsContext
10.00
3.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.33
52%
On target shareContext
33%
5.00
Shots in the boxContext
5.67
53%
Box shareContext
53%
24%
ConversionContext
3%
1.00
OffsidesContext
—
16.67
Shots allowedContext
16.00
6.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.33
4.67
BlocksContext
4.33
5.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.67
84%
Save rateContext
69%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
386
PassesContext
327
311
Accurate passesContext
256
80%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.61
9.67
FoulsContext
12.00
14.33
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
2.33
Yellow cardsContext
1.67
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.33
xGVia Att/Def
1.03
1.33
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.03
+0.07
Goals minus xGContext
-0.23
80%
Scored inContext
50%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
8.70
ShotsContext
8.70
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.80
40%
On target shareContext
44%
6.00
Shots in the boxContext
5.60
58%
Box shareContext
63%
16%
ConversionContext
9%
1.71
OffsidesContext
1.00
16.60
Shots allowedContext
13.10
6.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.10
4.20
BlocksContext
4.30
4.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.80
73%
Save rateContext
68%
39%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
354
PassesContext
321
277
Accurate passesContext
247
78%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.82
9.40
FoulsContext
12.50
13.20
Fouls sufferedContext
12.80
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Cremonese
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km167 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Parma
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel44 km1,254 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Cremonese |
Parma |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.9Serie A 2025-2026, 15 Sep | 8Serie A 2025-2026, 13 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 44 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 167 km | 1,254 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 8.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Cremonese
Confirmed XI
1E. Audero(G)
15M. Bianchetti
6F. Baschirotto
24F. Terracciano
3G. Pezzella
27J. Vandeputte
38W. Bondo
18M. Collocolo
7A. Zerbin
99A. Sanabria
20F. Vázquez
Parma
Confirmed XI
31Z. Suzuki(G)
3A. Ndiaye
39A. Circati
15E. Delprato
14E. Valeri
22O. Sørensen
10Adrián Bernabé
16L. Keita
11P. Almqvist
9Mateo Pellegrino
32P. Cutrone
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Cremonese
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Parma
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Cremonese+0.1 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Parma+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Cremonese · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Parma · Away
0.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Cremonese | Parma | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.67 | 0.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.67 | |
| Match goals | 2.67 | 2.00 | 2.38 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 0% | 42% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 33% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 67% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Cremonese | Parma | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.67 | 0.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.67 | |
| Match goals | 2.67 | 2.00 | 2.38 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 0% | 42% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 33% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 67% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Cremonese | Parma | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.67 | 3.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.67 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 9.34 | 7.67 | 9.48 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 3/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 1/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.33 | 1.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.67 | 2.67 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 4.34 | 3.81 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 2/3 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 1/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Cremonese | Parma | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.00 | 3.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.13 | 4.44 | |
| Match total | 10.13 | 8.00 | 9.48 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 6/8 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.10 | 4.10 | 3.81 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Federico La Penna Italy · 37 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.32league 3.74
Red cards0.08league 0.11
Cards 5+41%league 40%
Fouls25.4league 26.0
Penalties0.30league 0.20
Home wins35%league 40%
CremoneseNo previous matches with this referee.
Parma2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.3.5 · 6.0
Pens for · against2 · 0
- W28 Dec 24H · Monza2–13
- D27 Oct 24H · Empoli1–14
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Cremonese3 games · scored 5 · conceded 3
0-15
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
76-90
Parma3 games · scored 1 · conceded 5
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
1
3
76-90
Cremonese10 games · scored 14 · conceded 15
1
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
4
61-75
5
4
76-90
Parma10 games · scored 8 · conceded 12
1
1
0-15
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
61-75
2
7
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
