Cremonese
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Cremonese32.8%fair odds 3.05
Draw29.1%fair odds 3.43
Parma38.1%fair odds 2.63
Expected goals1.13 – 1.24total 2.38
Likeliest score1–113.8%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Parma
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Cremonese ↓ · Parma → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 10.8 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 13.8 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.4 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Cremonese goals, columns Parma goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.8%7.26
- 0–110.8%9.23
- 0–010.0%10.04
- 1–09.8%10.18
- 1–28.1%12.29
- 2–17.4%13.48
- 0–27.2%13.95
- 2–06.0%16.76
- 2–24.6%21.67
- 1–33.4%29.65
Winning margin
4.2%
Cremonese by 3+
fair 23.59
9.3%
Cremonese by 2
fair 10.73
19.2%
Cremonese by 1
fair 5.21
29.1%
Draw
fair 3.43
21.1%
Parma by 1
fair 4.73
11.2%
Parma by 2
fair 8.93
5.8%
Parma by 3+
fair 17.36
Goal distribution
Total goals
10%0
21%1
27%2
21%3
12%4
9%5+
Cremonese goals
32%0
36%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+
Parma goals
29%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
4%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cremonese win | 32.8% | 33.5% | -0.7 pp |
| Draw | 29.1% | 27.1% | +2.0 pp |
| Parma win | 38.1% | 39.4% | -1.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 42.5% | 50.3% | -7.8 pp |
| Both teams score | 49.0% | 55.1% | -6.2 pp |
| Expected goals Cremonese | 1.13 | 1.28 | -0.15 |
| Expected goals Parma | 1.24 | 1.41 | -0.16 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Cremonese win32.8%3.05
- Draw29.1%3.43
- Parma win38.1%2.63
- Double chance Cremonese or draw61.9%1.62
- Double chance Cremonese or Parma70.9%1.41
- Double chance Parma or draw67.2%1.49
- Draw no bet Cremonese46.2%2.16
- Draw no bet Parma53.8%1.86
Goals
- Over 0.590.0%1.11
- Over 1.569.4%1.44
- Over 2.542.5%2.36
- Over 3.521.7%4.61
- Over 4.59.3%10.73
- Under 1.530.6%3.26
- Under 2.557.5%1.74
- Under 3.578.3%1.28
Both teams to score
- Yes49.0%2.04
- No51.0%1.96
- Yes and over 2.535.2%2.84
- Cremonese win and yes13.9%7.19
- Draw and yes19.2%5.21
- Parma win and yes15.9%6.29
Team goals
- Cremonese over 0.567.8%1.47
- Cremonese over 1.531.4%3.19
- Cremonese over 2.510.7%9.38
- Parma over 0.571.2%1.41
- Parma over 1.535.3%2.83
- Parma over 2.513.0%7.68
- Cremonese clean sheet28.8%3.47
- Parma clean sheet32.2%3.11
- Cremonese win to nil18.9%5.30
- Parma win to nil22.2%4.51
Handicap
- Cremonese −1.513.6%7.38
- Cremonese −2.54.2%23.59
- Parma +1.586.4%1.16
- Parma +2.595.8%1.04
- Parma −1.517.0%5.90
- Cremonese +1.583.0%1.20
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Serie A 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored35
Favourite won51.4%
Avg chance given to result39.8%
1X2 Brier0.626
Over 2.5 called right62.9%
BTTS called right45.7%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 4 | 37.7% | 50.0% |
| 40–50% | 12 | 44.4% | 41.7% |
| 50–60% | 7 | 52.5% | 57.1% |
| 60–70% | 6 | 63.2% | 66.7% |
| 70–80% | 4 | 73.0% | 75.0% |
| 80%+ | 2 | 80.1% | 0.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 15 of 35 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6517 | 0.6220 |
| Avg chance given to result | 36.7% | 38.1% |
| Favourite won | 46.7% | 53.3% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 15 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 35 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.