Cremonese vs Torino – 19 Apr 2026

Serie A Gameweek 33 Sun, Apr 19 · 11:30 Stadio Giovanni Zini, Cremona

Cremonese 17th · 27 pts · 32 played LLWLL

0–0Full time

Torino 13th · 39 pts · 32 played LWLWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Torino were slight favourites.

Torino were the stronger side on L90 Strength (36 vs 19). Absences weigh more on Cremonese. Cremonese had 7.9 days of rest, Torino 7.9 and had to travel 183 km.

Away travel183 kmRest days7.9 · 7.9Matches / 14d2 · 2

Cremonese29%

Draw30%

Torino41%

Expected goals 1.01 – 1.26

Cremonese31%

Draw27%

Torino42%

Expected goals 1.22 – 1.47

Cremonese30%

Draw30%

Torino41%

Expected goals 1.02 – 1.25

Cremonese23%

Draw28%

Torino48%

Expected goals 0.90 – 1.42

Cremonese29%

Draw28%

Torino43%

Expected goals 1.13 – 1.42

Over 2.5 40% Both score 46% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Cremona)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyMichael Fabbri

Cards per match 4.4
Penalties per match 0.15
Matches 71

Team strength

Cremonese

Torino

19 L90 StrengthIn forecast 36

20 Current StrengthIn forecast 39

16 AttackIn forecast 39

30 DefenceIn forecast 47

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Cremonese

Attack—

Defense risk—

Torino

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Cremonese

Torino

0.81 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.16

1.47 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.69

0.92 xGVia Att/Def 1.12

1.52 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.31

-0.11 Goals minus xGContext +0.04

53% Scored inContext 72%

25% Clean sheetsContext 34%

8.69 ShotsContext 11.72

3.19 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.16

36% On target shareContext 36%

5.60 Shots in the boxContext 7.41

60% Box shareContext 64%

9% ConversionContext 10%

2.22 OffsidesContext 1.96

15.94 Shots allowedContext 13.13

5.31 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.32

4.61 BlocksContext 3.84

4.03 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.79

74% Save rateContext 62%

46% PossessionIn forecast 44%

365 PassesContext 366

285 Accurate passesContext 292

78% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.72 Team ratingContext 6.76

13.59 FoulsContext 13.63

12.72 Fouls sufferedContext 10.44

1.97 Yellow cardsContext 1.84

0.03 Red cardsContext 0.06

This league season, per match · 32 and 32 games

0.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60

1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

0.85 xGVia Att/Def 1.19

1.48 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.10

-0.25 Goals minus xGContext +0.41

50% Scored inContext 90%

20% Clean sheetsContext 30%

9.40 ShotsContext 11.90

3.44 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

33% On target shareContext 34%

7.22 Shots in the boxContext 7.30

71% Box shareContext 60%

6% ConversionContext 13%

1.86 OffsidesContext 2.00

15.90 Shots allowedContext 13.20

5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.78

4.70 BlocksContext 4.40

3.30 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.22

66% Save rateContext 67%

45% PossessionIn forecast 44%

338 PassesContext 372

261 Accurate passesContext 302

77% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.72 Team ratingContext 6.82

15.10 FoulsContext 13.70

13.00 Fouls sufferedContext 9.80

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 2.10

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Cremonese

Rest7.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km1,321 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Torino

Rest7.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel183 km527 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Cremonese	Torino
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.9Serie A 2025-2026, 11 Apr	7.9Serie A 2025-2026, 11 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	183 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,321 km	527 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 2 / 2	0 / 2 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	5.3	7.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Cremonese Confirmed XI

4-4-2

1E. Audero(G)

3G. Pezzella 5S. Luperto 6F. Baschirotto 24F. Terracciano

27J. Vandeputte 33A. Grassi 38W. Bondo 22R. Floriani Mussolini

99A. Sanabria 90F. Bonazzoli

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Torino Confirmed XI

3-4-1-2

1A. Paleari(G)

77E. Ebosse 13G. Maripán 23Saúl Coco

33Rafael Obrador 66G. Gineitis 22C. Casadei 16M. Pedersen

10N. Vlašić

19C. Adams 18G. Simeone

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Cremonese Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Torino Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Cremonese-0.7 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Torino+0.8 pp

Home / Away this season

Cremonese · Home 0.80points per game · 15 home games

W-D-L: 2-6-7
Scored: 0.87
Conceded: 1.53

Torino · Away 1.00points per game · 16 away games

W-D-L: 4-4-8
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.88

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Cremonese	Torino
Cagliari	L 0–1 AD 2–2 H	L 1–2 H
Bologna	L 1–2 HW 3–1 A	L 1–2 HD 0–0 A
Parma	W 2–0 AD 0–0 H	W 4–1 HL 1–2 A
Fiorentina	L 1–4 HL 0–1 A	D 2–2 AD 0–0 H
Lecce	L 1–2 AW 2–0 H	W 1–0 HL 1–2 A
AC Milan	L 0–2 HW 2–1 A	L 2–3 AL 2–3 H
AS Roma	L 0–3 AL 1–3 H	L 0–2 HW 1–0 A
Genoa	D 0–0 HW 2–0 A	L 0–3 AW 2–1 H
Atalanta	L 1–2 AD 1–1 H	L 0–2 AL 0–3 H
Inter	L 0–2 HL 1–4 A	L 0–5 A
Sassuolo	L 0–1 AW 3–2 H	W 1–0 A
Verona	D 0–0 HD 0–0 A	W 2–1 HW 3–0 A
Juventus	L 0–5 AL 1–2 H	D 0–0 A
Napoli	L 0–2 H	L 1–2 AW 1–0 H
Lazio	D 0–0 A	W 2–0 HD 3–3 A
Pisa	L 0–1 A	W 1–0 AD 2–2 H
Udinese	D 1–1 H	L 1–2 H
Como	D 1–1 A	L 0–6 AL 1–5 H
Points	27 of 93 · 0.87 per game	36 of 93 · 1.16 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings

0 Cremonese wins1 draws2 Torino wins

Goals per game1.00 – 1.67 Over 2.567% Both scored67% Clean sheets0% · 33%

13 Dec 2025Torino1–0Cremonese
20 Feb 2023Torino2–2Cremonese
27 Aug 2022Cremonese1–2Torino

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Cremonese	Torino	Forecast
Scored per game	0.81	1.16
Conceded per game	1.47	1.69
Match goals	2.28	2.84	2.27
Over 1.5	69%	72%
Over 2.5	41%	63%	40%
Over 3.5	22%	28%
Both teams scored	44%	47%	46%
Clean sheets	25%	34%
Failed to score	47%	28%
Games	32	32

	Cremonese	Torino	Forecast
Scored per game	0.60	1.60
Conceded per game	1.80	1.40
Match goals	2.40	3.00	2.27
Over 1.5	80%	80%
Over 2.5	50%	70%	40%
Over 3.5	10%	30%
Both teams scored	40%	60%	46%
Clean sheets	20%	30%
Failed to score	50%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Cremonese	Torino	League
Corners
Corners won	3.32	3.70
Corners conceded	6.32	4.70
Match total	9.64	8.40	8.71
Over 8.5	61% 19/31	47% 14/30
Over 9.5	42% 13/31	37% 11/30
Over 10.5	26% 8/31	33% 10/30
Cards
Cards	2.03	1.91
Opponent cards	1.50	1.50
Match total	3.53	3.41	3.90
Over 3.5	41% 13/32	53% 17/32
Over 4.5	25% 8/32	22% 7/32

	Cremonese	Torino	League
Corners
Corners won	3.00	3.50
Corners conceded	6.80	5.70
Match total	9.80	9.20	8.71
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	1.80	2.20
Opponent cards	1.10	1.80
Match total	2.90	4.00	3.90
Over 3.5	20% 2/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Michael Fabbri Italy · 71 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.08league 3.72

Red cards0.30league 0.19

Cards 5+35%league 35%

Fouls24.2league 24.9

Penalties0.15league 0.30

Home wins38%league 40%

Cremonese2 with this referee

Record1-1-0 Cards · opp.3.5 · 2.5 Pens for · against0 · 0

W21 Mar 26A · Parma2–03
D20 Oct 25H · Udinese1–14

Torino9 with this referee

Record1-2-6 Cards · opp.2.8 · 1.3 Pens for · against0 · 1

L6 Mar 26A · Napoli1–23
L14 Feb 25A · Bologna2–34
D11 Jan 25H · Juventus1–14
L1 Dec 24H · Napoli0–14
L31 Oct 24A · AS Roma0–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.