Crystal Palace
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Crystal Palace were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Crystal Palace had 7 days of rest, Everton 5.8 and had to travel 286 km.
Away travel286 kmRest days7 · 5.8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Crystal Palace44%
Draw25%
Everton31%
Crystal Palace41%
Draw27%
Everton32%
Crystal Palace43%
Draw25%
Everton32%
Crystal Palace36%
Draw25%
Everton39%
Crystal Palace43%
Draw26%
Everton32%
Over 2.5 59%
Both score 61%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (London)
No weather data yet
RefereeThomas Bramall
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.18
- Matches 109
Team strength
Crystal Palace
Everton
67
L90 StrengthIn forecast
71
64
Current StrengthIn forecast
67
64
AttackIn forecast
61
54
DefenceIn forecast
66
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEverton
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Crystal PalaceEverton
1.06
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.26
1.24
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.26
1.53
xGVia Att/Def
1.25
1.31
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.49
-0.47
Goals minus xGContext
+0.01
68%
Scored inContext
74%
35%
Clean sheetsContext
31%
11.50
ShotsContext
11.11
3.76
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.74
32%
On target shareContext
34%
8.52
Shots in the boxContext
7.62
73%
Box shareContext
68%
9%
ConversionContext
11%
2.29
OffsidesContext
2.08
11.35
Shots allowedContext
13.80
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.26
3.19
BlocksContext
4.51
3.23
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.82
71%
Save rateContext
65%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
397
PassesContext
382
311
Accurate passesContext
304
78%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.94
10.94
FoulsContext
10.46
9.68
Fouls sufferedContext
11.23
2.06
Yellow cardsContext
1.89
0.03
Red cardsContext
0.09
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.77
xGVia Att/Def
1.57
1.05
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.51
-0.37
Goals minus xGContext
+0.03
70%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.70
ShotsContext
11.90
4.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.20
33%
On target shareContext
44%
9.10
Shots in the boxContext
8.10
72%
Box shareContext
67%
11%
ConversionContext
13%
2.43
OffsidesContext
2.11
11.10
Shots allowedContext
14.30
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
3.90
BlocksContext
4.70
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.40
75%
Save rateContext
55%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
397
PassesContext
389
321
Accurate passesContext
310
81%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.92
13.20
FoulsContext
10.20
10.40
Fouls sufferedContext
9.90
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Crystal Palace
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km301 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Everton
Rest5.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel286 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Crystal Palace |
Everton |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Premier League 2025-2026, 3 May | 5.8Premier League 2025-2026, 4 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 286 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 301 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 4 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.3 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Crystal Palace
Confirmed XI
1D. Henderson(G)
23J. Canvot
5M. Lacroix
26Chris Richards
3T. Mitchell
18Daichi Kamada
20A. Wharton
2D. Muñoz
11B. Johnson
7I. Sarr
22J. Strand Larsen
Everton
Confirmed XI
1J. Pickford(G)
16V. Mykolenko
5M. Keane
6J. Tarkowski
15J. O'Brien
37J. Garner
42T. Iroegbunam
10I. Ndiaye
22K. Dewsbury-Hall
34M. Röhl
9Beto
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Crystal Palace
Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Everton
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Crystal Palace+0.8 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Everton-0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Crystal Palace · Home
1.18points per game · 17 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-8-5
- Scored
- 0.94
- Conceded
- 1.12
Everton · Away
1.47points per game · 17 away games
- W-D-L
- 7-4-6
- Scored
- 1.12
- Conceded
- 1.18
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Crystal Palace | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth | L 0–3 AD 3–3 H | L 1–2 HW 1–0 A |
| Liverpool | L 1–3 AW 2–1 H | L 1–2 HL 1–2 A |
| West Ham | D 0–0 HW 2–1 A | L 1–2 AD 1–1 H |
| Newcastle | W 2–1 HL 0–2 A | W 3–2 AL 1–4 H |
| Leeds | D 0–0 HL 1–4 A | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Tottenham | W 3–1 AL 0–1 H | L 0–3 H |
| Manchester United | L 1–2 AL 1–2 H | L 0–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Wolves | W 1–0 HW 2–0 A | D 1–1 HW 3–2 A |
| Burnley | L 2–3 HW 1–0 A | W 2–0 HD 0–0 A |
| Brighton | W 1–0 AD 0–0 H | D 1–1 AW 2–0 H |
| Nottingham Forest | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H | W 2–0 AW 3–0 H |
| Chelsea | L 1–3 HD 0–0 A | W 3–0 HL 0–2 A |
| Sunderland | L 1–2 AD 0–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Aston Villa | D 0–0 HW 3–0 A | W 1–0 AD 0–0 H |
| Fulham | D 1–1 HW 2–1 A | W 2–1 AW 2–0 H |
| Manchester City | L 0–3 H | D 3–3 HL 0–2 A |
| Brentford | W 2–0 H | D 2–2 AL 2–4 H |
| Arsenal | L 0–1 A | L 0–2 AL 0–1 H |
| Points | 43 of 99 · 1.30 per game | 45 of 102 · 1.32 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
1 Crystal Palace wins3 draws6 Everton wins
Goals per game1.20 – 1.80
Over 2.570%
Both scored80%
Clean sheets10% · 20%
- 5 Oct 2025Everton2–1Crystal Palace
- 15 Feb 2025Crystal Palace1–2Everton
- 28 Sep 2024Everton2–1Crystal Palace
- 19 Feb 2024Everton1–1Crystal Palace
- 11 Nov 2023Crystal Palace2–3Everton
- 22 Apr 2023Crystal Palace0–0Everton
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Crystal Palace | Everton | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.06 | 1.26 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.24 | 1.26 | |
| Match goals | 2.29 | 2.51 | 3.04 |
| Over 1.5 | 68% | 77% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 43% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 18% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 49% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 35% | 31% | |
| Failed to score | 32% | 26% | |
| Games | 34 | 35 |
| Crystal Palace | Everton | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 3.20 | 3.04 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 70% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Crystal Palace | Everton | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.21 | 4.23 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.91 | 5.17 | |
| Match total | 9.12 | 9.40 | 10.06 |
| Over 8.5 | 53% 18/34 | 66% 23/35 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 15/34 | 43% 15/35 | |
| Over 10.5 | 32% 11/34 | 37% 13/35 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.12 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.94 | 1.66 | |
| Match total | 4.06 | 3.66 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 68% 23/34 | 49% 17/35 | |
| Over 4.5 | 53% 18/34 | 43% 15/35 | |
| Crystal Palace | Everton | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.90 | 4.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.10 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 9.40 | 10.06 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 3.40 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Thomas Bramall 109 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.75league 3.81
Red cards0.14league 0.12
Cards 5+41%league 39%
Fouls22.0league 21.6
Penalties0.18league 0.21
Home wins48%league 43%
Crystal Palace10 with this referee
Record4-4-2
Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.9
Pens for · against2 · 0
Reds1
- D15 Mar 26H · Leeds0–02
- W8 Feb 26A · Brighton1–03
- L20 Dec 25A · Leeds1–43
- L26 Oct 25A · Arsenal0–10
- D13 Sep 25H · Sunderland0–01
Everton4 with this referee
Record0-2-2
Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.8
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L13 Dec 25A · Chelsea0–20
- D3 Nov 25A · Sunderland1–12
- D30 Jan 24A · Fulham0–02
- L30 Dec 23A · Wolves0–33
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Crystal Palace34 games · scored 36 · conceded 42
2
3
0-15
5
16-30
11
17
31-45
1
6
46-60
8
6
61-75
9
10
76-90
Everton35 games · scored 44 · conceded 44
3
4
0-15
7
9
16-30
7
6
31-45
6
6
46-60
6
7
61-75
15
12
76-90
Crystal Palace10 games · scored 14 · conceded 12
2
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
1
5
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
5
2
76-90
Everton10 games · scored 16 · conceded 16
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
4
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
3
3
61-75
5
8
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
