Dender vs Anderlecht – 17 Aug 2025

Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sun, Aug 17 · 12:30 DENDER Football Complex, Denderleeuw

Dender 14th · 2 pts · 3 played DDL

0–2Full time

Anderlecht 6th · 6 pts · 3 played WWL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Anderlecht were slight favourites.

Anderlecht were the stronger side on L90 Strength (50 vs 26). Dender had 8.7 days of rest, Anderlecht 6.9 and had to travel 20 km.

Away travel20 kmRest days8.7 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 2

Dender29%

Draw26%

Anderlecht44%

Expected goals 1.21 – 1.54

Dender29%

Draw27%

Anderlecht44%

Expected goals 1.19 – 1.51

Dender29%

Draw26%

Anderlecht44%

Expected goals 1.20 – 1.54

Dender23%

Draw25%

Anderlecht52%

Expected goals 1.07 – 1.72

Dender29%

Draw27%

Anderlecht44%

Expected goals 1.19 – 1.51

Over 2.5 52% Both score 56% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Denderleeuw)

No weather data yet

Referee · BelgiumLawrence Visser

Cards per match 5.3
Penalties per match 0.12
Matches 26

Team strength

Dender

Anderlecht

26 L90 StrengthIn forecast 50

15 Current StrengthIn forecast 43

15 AttackIn forecast 37

15 DefenceIn forecast 52

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Dender

Attack—

Defense risk—

Anderlecht

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Dender

Anderlecht

0.33 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 3.00

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.67

0.75 xGVia Att/Def 2.24

1.70 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.94

-0.42 Goals minus xGContext +0.76

33% Scored inContext 100%

33% Clean sheetsContext 33%

8.67 ShotsContext 18.00

2.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.33

27% On target shareContext 41%

6.67 Shots in the boxContext 11.33

75% Box shareContext 63%

4% ConversionContext 17%

4.00 OffsidesContext 3.50

11.33 Shots allowedContext 10.33

3.67 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

2.33 BlocksContext 4.00

2.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.67

73% Save rateContext 42%

52% PossessionIn forecast 55%

448 PassesContext 439

346 Accurate passesContext 364

77% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.79 Team ratingContext 7.00

11.00 FoulsContext 15.33

13.67 Fouls sufferedContext 10.67

1.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.33 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 3 and 3 games

0.33 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80

0.75 xGVia Att/Def 1.56

1.70 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.29

-0.42 Goals minus xGContext +0.44

33% Scored inContext 80%

33% Clean sheetsContext 20%

8.67 ShotsContext 14.00

2.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.11

27% On target shareContext 37%

6.67 Shots in the boxContext 8.44

75% Box shareContext 60%

4% ConversionContext 15%

— OffsidesContext 2.00

11.33 Shots allowedContext 11.11

3.67 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.33

2.33 BlocksContext 2.63

2.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.22

73% Save rateContext 51%

52% PossessionIn forecast 54%

448 PassesContext 464

346 Accurate passesContext 384

77% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.79 Team ratingContext 6.95

11.00 FoulsContext 12.56

13.67 Fouls sufferedContext 12.11

1.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.33 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 3 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Dender

Rest8.7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Anderlecht

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel20 km176 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Dender	Anderlecht
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8.7Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 8 Aug	6.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 10 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	20 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	176 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7.2	14.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.

Squad & lineups

Dender Confirmed XI

5-3-2

34M. Verrips(G)

88F. Ferraro 3J. Pupe 44L. De Fougerolles 5L. Marijnissen 22B. Fredrick

17N. Mbamba 18N. Rôdes 24M. Viltard

11A. Scheidler 16R. Květ

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Anderlecht Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

26C. Coosemans(G)

6H. Augustinsson 55M. Kana 3L. Hey 79A. Maamar

24E. Llansana 74N. De Cat

19N. Angulo 11T. Hazard 10Y. Verschaeren

91A. Bertaccini

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Dender Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Anderlecht Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Dender+0.1 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Anderlecht-0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Dender · Home 1.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 0-1-0
Scored: 0.00
Conceded: 0.00

Anderlecht · Away 3.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-0
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 0.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

Opponent	Dender	Anderlecht
Cercle Brugge	D 0–0 H	W 2–0 A
Points	1 of 3 · 1.00 per game	3 of 3 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Dender	Anderlecht	Forecast
Scored per game	0.33	3.00
Conceded per game	1.00	1.67
Match goals	1.33	4.67	2.74
Over 1.5	67%	100%
Over 2.5	0%	67%	52%
Over 3.5	0%	67%
Both teams scored	33%	67%	56%
Clean sheets	33%	33%
Failed to score	67%	0%
Games	3	3

	Dender	Anderlecht	Forecast
Scored per game	0.33	3.00
Conceded per game	1.00	1.67
Match goals	1.33	4.67	2.74
Over 1.5	67%	100%
Over 2.5	0%	67%	52%
Over 3.5	0%	67%
Both teams scored	33%	67%	56%
Clean sheets	33%	33%
Failed to score	67%	0%
Games	3	3

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Dender	Anderlecht	League
Corners
Corners won	2.00	5.67
Corners conceded	4.00	4.33
Match total	6.00	10.00	9.54
Over 8.5	0% 0/3	67% 2/3
Over 9.5	0% 0/3	67% 2/3
Over 10.5	0% 0/3	67% 2/3
Cards
Cards	1.33	2.00
Opponent cards	2.33	2.33
Match total	3.66	4.33	3.86
Over 3.5	67% 2/3	67% 2/3
Over 4.5	33% 1/3	33% 1/3

	Dender	Anderlecht	League
Corners
Corners won	2.00	5.00
Corners conceded	4.00	4.88
Match total	6.00	9.88	9.54
Over 8.5	0% 0/3	75% 6/8
Over 9.5	0% 0/3	75% 6/8
Over 10.5	0% 0/3	63% 5/8
Cards
Cards	1.33	1.80
Opponent cards	2.33	2.40
Match total	3.66	4.20	3.86
Over 3.5	67% 2/3	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	33% 1/3	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Lawrence Visser Belgium · 26 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.92league 3.64

Red cards0.42league 0.21

Cards 5+62%league 32%

Fouls22.2league 23.0

Penalties0.12league 0.43

Home wins42%league 46%

Dender

No previous matches with this referee.

Anderlecht2 with this referee

Record1-1-0 Cards · opp.3.5 · 2.5 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1

D24 Sep 23H · Club Brugge KV1–11
W13 Aug 23A · St. Truiden1–06

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.