Dender
Attack—
Defense risk—
Dender
16th · 13 pts · 20 played
DWLLD
First leg2–1
1–0Full time
Antwerp
7th · 27 pts · 20 played
WWWDW
Our take
Antwerp were slight favourites.
Antwerp were the stronger side on L90 Strength (41 vs 19). Dender had 21.9 days of rest, Antwerp 22.1 and had to travel 46 km.
Away travel46 kmRest days21.9 · 22.1Matches / 14d0 · 0
Dender29%
Draw27%
Antwerp44%
Dender29%
Draw27%
Antwerp45%
Dender29%
Draw27%
Antwerp44%
Dender23%
Draw26%
Antwerp51%
Dender29%
Draw27%
Antwerp45%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Denderleeuw)
No weather data yet
RefereeMichiel Allaerts
- Cards per match 3.6
- Penalties per match 0.08
- Matches 12
Team strength
DenderAntwerp
19
L90 StrengthIn forecast
41
15
Current StrengthIn forecast
26
15
AttackIn forecast
24
15
DefenceIn forecast
19
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAntwerp
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
DenderAntwerp
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.05
0.93
xGVia Att/Def
1.16
1.45
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.24
-0.13
Goals minus xGContext
+0.04
60%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
9.85
ShotsContext
11.15
3.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.25
37%
On target shareContext
38%
7.05
Shots in the boxContext
6.74
71%
Box shareContext
60%
8%
ConversionContext
11%
2.29
OffsidesContext
2.82
14.20
Shots allowedContext
14.30
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.70
3.50
BlocksContext
4.75
3.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
66%
Save rateContext
76%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
383
PassesContext
358
292
Accurate passesContext
284
76%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.69
Team ratingContext
6.94
10.70
FoulsContext
12.40
11.60
Fouls sufferedContext
12.30
1.75
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.20
xGVia Att/Def
1.34
1.39
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.07
+0.10
Goals minus xGContext
+0.06
90%
Scored inContext
70%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.40
ShotsContext
11.60
4.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
37%
On target shareContext
37%
8.20
Shots in the boxContext
7.30
73%
Box shareContext
63%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
2.11
OffsidesContext
2.50
15.00
Shots allowedContext
14.00
5.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
3.25
BlocksContext
5.20
3.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.38
64%
Save rateContext
83%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
360
PassesContext
351
269
Accurate passesContext
274
75%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.67
Team ratingContext
7.00
12.00
FoulsContext
13.00
11.70
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Dender
Rest21.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Antwerp
Rest22.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel46 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Dender |
Antwerp |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 21.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 27 Dec | 22.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 27 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 46 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 1 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Dender
Confirmed XI
93G. Gallon(G)
7B. Goncalves
21K. Cools
5L. Marijnissen
88F. Ferraro
24M. Viltard
17N. Mbamba
70M. Sambu
16R. Květ
77B. Nsimba
9David Toševski
Antwerp
Confirmed XI
41Taishi Brandon Nozawa(G)
4Yuto Tsunashima
25B. Kouyaté
33Z. Van Den Bosch
30C. Scott
78Xander Dierickx
8D. Praet
24T. Somers
9M. Al Sahafi
18V. Janssen
7G. Kerk
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Dender
Absences are shown before kick-off
Antwerp
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Dender+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Antwerp+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Dender · Home
0.40points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-4-6
- Scored
- 0.60
- Conceded
- 1.70
Antwerp · Away
1.00points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-4
- Scored
- 0.56
- Conceded
- 0.89
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Dender | Antwerp |
|---|---|---|
| KV Mechelen | D 1–1 AL 1–3 H | W 2–1 H |
| Standard Liege | L 0–1 HD 1–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Club Brugge KV | L 1–5 HL 1–2 A | W 1–0 AL 0–1 H |
| RAAL La Louvière | W 2–1 AD 0–0 H | W 3–1 H |
| KVC Westerlo | D 2–2 HD 1–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| Zulte Waregem | D 2–2 H | W 2–1 HL 0–2 A |
| Genk | L 1–2 A | W 3–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Gent | L 0–3 A | W 2–0 AL 1–2 H |
| Union St. Gilloise | L 0–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Charleroi | L 1–3 A | D 1–1 A |
| OH Leuven | L 0–1 H | W 3–1 H |
| Anderlecht | L 0–2 H | D 2–2 HD 0–0 A |
| St. Truiden | L 0–2 A | L 0–1 A |
| Cercle Brugge | D 0–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 10 of 57 · 0.53 per game | 27 of 57 · 1.42 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
1 Dender wins0 draws0 Antwerp wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 23 Nov 2025Antwerp1–2Dender
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Dender | Antwerp | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.05 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.25 | 2.62 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 40% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 15% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 55% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 30% | |
| Games | 20 | 20 |
| Dender | Antwerp | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.90 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 2.30 | 2.62 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 50% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 40% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Dender | Antwerp | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.26 | 3.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.84 | 5.20 | |
| Match total | 8.10 | 9.10 | 9.68 |
| Over 8.5 | 47% 9/19 | 55% 11/20 | |
| Over 9.5 | 32% 6/19 | 35% 7/20 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 2/19 | 25% 5/20 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.95 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.45 | 2.15 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 4.35 | 4.06 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 10/20 | 55% 11/20 | |
| Over 4.5 | 35% 7/20 | 50% 10/20 | |
| Dender | Antwerp | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.78 | 3.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 5.50 | |
| Match total | 8.78 | 9.40 | 9.68 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.30 | 4.10 | 4.06 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Michiel Allaerts 12 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.42league 3.83
Red cards0.17league 0.19
Cards 5+25%league 41%
Fouls22.8league 22.9
Penalties0.08league 0.29
Home wins25%league 41%
Dender3 with this referee
Record0-2-1
Cards · opp.0.7 · 1.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- D7 Nov 25H · Zulte Waregem2–21
- L19 Oct 25H · KV Mechelen1–31
- D26 Jul 25H · Cercle Brugge0–00
AntwerpNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Dender20 games · scored 16 · conceded 34
4
5
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
3
31-45
3
6
46-60
2
9
61-75
5
8
76-90
Antwerp20 games · scored 24 · conceded 21
3
3
0-15
6
4
16-30
4
3
31-45
3
4
46-60
2
2
61-75
6
5
76-90
Dender10 games · scored 13 · conceded 19
3
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
3
3
46-60
1
6
61-75
4
3
76-90
Antwerp10 games · scored 14 · conceded 9
2
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
1
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
