Dender
Attack—
Defense risk—
Dender
16th · 18 pts · 27 played
LLLLD
First leg1–3
2–2Full time
Charleroi
11th · 33 pts · 27 played
WLLLL
Our take
Dender were slight favourites.
Charleroi were the stronger side on L90 Strength (25 vs 18). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Dender. Dender had 6 days of rest, Charleroi 6 and had to travel 59 km.
Away travel59 kmRest days6 · 6Matches / 14d1 · 2
Dender41%
Draw27%
Charleroi32%
Dender37%
Draw27%
Charleroi35%
Dender41%
Draw27%
Charleroi32%
Dender34%
Draw27%
Charleroi40%
Dender41%
Draw26%
Charleroi32%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Denderleeuw)
No weather data yet
RefereeJan Boterberg
- Cards per match 3.4
- Penalties per match 0.32
- Matches 31
Team strength
DenderCharleroi
18
L90 StrengthIn forecast
25
15
Current StrengthIn forecast
38
15
AttackIn forecast
43
15
DefenceIn forecast
50
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCharleroi
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
DenderCharleroi
0.78
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.33
1.63
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.37
1.03
xGVia Att/Def
1.13
1.42
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.19
-0.25
Goals minus xGContext
+0.20
59%
Scored inContext
81%
19%
Clean sheetsContext
26%
10.37
ShotsContext
12.04
3.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.35
36%
On target shareContext
35%
7.37
Shots in the boxContext
7.48
71%
Box shareContext
61%
8%
ConversionContext
11%
2.23
OffsidesContext
2.52
14.22
Shots allowedContext
11.67
4.69
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.92
3.64
BlocksContext
3.23
3.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.87
68%
Save rateContext
70%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
380
PassesContext
376
289
Accurate passesContext
302
76%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.84
10.74
FoulsContext
11.48
10.96
Fouls sufferedContext
10.59
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.11
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.27
xGVia Att/Def
1.30
1.31
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.43
-0.57
Goals minus xGContext
+0.50
60%
Scored inContext
100%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.50
ShotsContext
15.00
4.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.80
37%
On target shareContext
32%
8.50
Shots in the boxContext
9.22
75%
Box shareContext
61%
6%
ConversionContext
12%
2.14
OffsidesContext
2.56
14.10
Shots allowedContext
12.20
5.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
3.78
BlocksContext
2.50
3.88
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.22
71%
Save rateContext
67%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
370
PassesContext
396
278
Accurate passesContext
322
75%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.79
11.00
FoulsContext
12.10
9.40
Fouls sufferedContext
8.80
2.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Dender
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km139 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Charleroi
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel59 km165 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Dender |
Charleroi |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 1 Mar | 6Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 1 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 59 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 139 km | 165 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Dender
Confirmed XI
93G. Gallon(G)
67N. Moutha-Sebtaoui
7B. Goncalves
44L. De Fougerolles
70M. Sambu
17N. Mbamba
18N. Rôdes
27A. Jahanbakhsh
16R. Květ
20D. Hrnčár
9David Toševski
Charleroi
Confirmed XI
30M. Koné(G)
23Jules Gaudin
95C. Keita
4A. Ousou
24M. Nzita
5É. Camara
22Y. Titraoui
10P. Guiagon
8J. Romsaas
17A. Bernier
21A. Scheidler
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Dender
Absences are shown before kick-off
Charleroi
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Dender+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Charleroi+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Dender · Home
0.54points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-4-8
- Scored
- 0.69
- Conceded
- 1.77
Charleroi · Away
1.23points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-1-7
- Scored
- 1.23
- Conceded
- 1.38
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Dender | Charleroi |
|---|---|---|
| Cercle Brugge | D 0–0 AD 0–0 H | L 3–4 HW 3–2 A |
| St. Truiden | L 1–4 HL 0–2 A | W 2–0 AD 1–1 H |
| OH Leuven | L 2–3 AL 0–1 H | D 2–2 A |
| Zulte Waregem | L 0–1 AD 2–2 H | L 1–2 H |
| Genk | L 1–2 HL 1–2 A | D 2–2 HW 1–0 A |
| Anderlecht | D 0–0 AL 0–2 H | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Antwerp | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A | W 2–0 AD 1–1 H |
| KV Mechelen | D 1–1 AL 1–3 H | L 0–1 AL 0–2 H |
| Standard Liege | L 0–1 HD 1–1 A | W 2–0 HL 1–3 A |
| Club Brugge KV | L 1–5 HL 1–2 A | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A |
| RAAL La Louvière | W 2–1 AD 0–0 H | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A |
| KVC Westerlo | D 2–2 HD 1–1 A | L 1–2 AW 2–0 H |
| Gent | L 0–3 A | L 2–3 HL 1–2 A |
| Union St. Gilloise | L 0–1 H | D 1–1 HL 1–3 A |
| Points | 18 of 78 · 0.69 per game | 30 of 78 · 1.15 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Dender wins0 draws1 Charleroi wins
Goals per game1.00 – 3.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 30 Aug 2025Charleroi3–1Dender
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Dender | Charleroi | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.78 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.63 | 1.37 | |
| Match goals | 2.41 | 2.70 | 2.77 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 78% | |
| Over 2.5 | 48% | 48% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 26% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 59% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 19% | 26% | |
| Failed to score | 41% | 19% | |
| Games | 27 | 27 |
| Dender | Charleroi | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.70 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 3.30 | 2.77 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Dender | Charleroi | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.62 | 4.96 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.35 | 4.81 | |
| Match total | 8.97 | 9.77 | 9.88 |
| Over 8.5 | 54% 14/26 | 62% 16/26 | |
| Over 9.5 | 42% 11/26 | 46% 12/26 | |
| Over 10.5 | 23% 6/26 | 38% 10/26 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.15 | 2.15 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.30 | 1.78 | |
| Match total | 3.45 | 3.93 | 4.10 |
| Over 3.5 | 44% 12/27 | 52% 14/27 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 9/27 | 37% 10/27 | |
| Dender | Charleroi | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.67 | 5.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.22 | 4.78 | |
| Match total | 10.89 | 10.56 | 9.88 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.80 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.90 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 4.30 | 4.10 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jan Boterberg 31 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.23league 3.87
Red cards0.16league 0.20
Cards 5+29%league 41%
Fouls20.2league 22.8
Penalties0.32league 0.31
Home wins39%league 40%
Dender2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.2.5 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 2
- D29 Nov 25H · KVC Westerlo2–24
- L19 Sep 25A · Gent0–31
Charleroi2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W25 Jan 26A · Antwerp2–02
- L17 Mar 24A · Gent0–52
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Dender27 games · scored 21 · conceded 44
6
7
0-15
1
5
16-30
2
5
31-45
4
6
46-60
2
10
61-75
6
11
76-90
Charleroi27 games · scored 36 · conceded 37
7
7
0-15
5
6
16-30
8
5
31-45
4
6
46-60
3
8
61-75
9
5
76-90
Dender10 games · scored 7 · conceded 17
2
4
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
1
4
76-90
Charleroi10 games · scored 18 · conceded 15
4
3
0-15
3
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
4
61-75
5
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
