Dender
Attack—
Defense risk—
Dender
16th · 12 pts · 17 played
LDWDW
First leg1–2
1–5Full time
Club Brugge KV
4th · 32 pts · 17 played
WLWLL
Our take
Club Brugge KV were slight favourites.
Club Brugge KV were the stronger side on L90 Strength (61 vs 21). Dender had 8.8 days of rest, Club Brugge KV 7.8 and had to travel 70 km.
Away travel70 kmRest days8.8 · 7.8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Dender20%
Draw24%
Club Brugge KV55%
Dender21%
Draw25%
Club Brugge KV55%
Dender20%
Draw24%
Club Brugge KV55%
Dender15%
Draw22%
Club Brugge KV63%
Dender21%
Draw25%
Club Brugge KV55%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Denderleeuw)
No weather data yet
RefereeBert Verbeke
- Cards per match 2.7
- Penalties per match 0.10
- Matches 10
Team strength
DenderClub Brugge KV
21
L90 StrengthIn forecast
61
15
Current StrengthIn forecast
75
15
AttackIn forecast
86
15
DefenceIn forecast
58
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisClub Brugge KV
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
DenderClub Brugge KV
0.82
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.41
1.59
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
0.90
xGVia Att/Def
1.41
1.48
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.05
-0.08
Goals minus xGContext
+0.00
59%
Scored inContext
82%
12%
Clean sheetsContext
41%
9.71
ShotsContext
16.12
3.41
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
35%
On target shareContext
31%
6.71
Shots in the boxContext
11.18
69%
Box shareContext
68%
9%
ConversionContext
9%
2.27
OffsidesContext
2.00
14.29
Shots allowedContext
11.88
4.35
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.94
3.56
BlocksContext
2.71
2.94
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.31
66%
Save rateContext
80%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
63%
386
PassesContext
556
296
Accurate passesContext
486
77%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.71
Team ratingContext
7.03
10.59
FoulsContext
9.24
11.88
Fouls sufferedContext
11.88
1.59
Yellow cardsContext
1.35
0.12
Red cardsContext
0.06
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
1.12
xGVia Att/Def
1.12
1.32
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.88
+0.08
Goals minus xGContext
-0.22
80%
Scored inContext
50%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.50
ShotsContext
13.80
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
36%
On target shareContext
33%
7.90
Shots in the boxContext
10.00
69%
Box shareContext
71%
10%
ConversionContext
7%
1.80
OffsidesContext
1.75
15.50
Shots allowedContext
15.50
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.90
4.22
BlocksContext
2.80
3.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.22
66%
Save rateContext
66%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
363
PassesContext
493
280
Accurate passesContext
427
77%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.70
Team ratingContext
6.84
11.40
FoulsContext
9.20
11.10
Fouls sufferedContext
10.30
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Dender
Rest8.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km90 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Club Brugge KV
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel70 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Dender |
Club Brugge KV |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.8Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 5 Dec | 7.8Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 6 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 70 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 90 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
Dender
Confirmed XI
30G. Dietsch(G)
88F. Ferraro
7B. Goncalves
18N. Rôdes
5L. Marijnissen
70M. Sambu
24M. Viltard
17N. Mbamba
16R. Květ
77B. Nsimba
9David Toševski
Club Brugge KV
Confirmed XI
16T. van den Heuvel(G)
65J. Seys
44B. Mechele
4J. Ordoñez
41H. Siquet
15R. Onyedika
25A. Stanković
8C. Tzolis
20H. Vanaken
9Carlos Forbs
7N. Tresoldi
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Dender
Absences are shown before kick-off
Club Brugge KV
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Dender+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Club Brugge KV+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Dender · Home
0.50points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-4-4
- Scored
- 0.63
- Conceded
- 1.38
Club Brugge KV · Away
1.44points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-1-4
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Dender | Club Brugge KV |
|---|---|---|
| RAAL La Louvière | W 2–1 AD 0–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| KVC Westerlo | D 2–2 HD 1–1 A | D 5–5 H |
| Antwerp | W 2–1 A | L 0–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Zulte Waregem | D 2–2 H | W 1–0 A |
| KV Mechelen | L 1–3 H | L 1–2 A |
| Genk | L 1–2 A | W 2–1 H |
| Gent | L 0–3 A | D 1–1 A |
| Union St. Gilloise | L 0–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Charleroi | L 1–3 A | W 1–0 H |
| OH Leuven | L 0–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| Anderlecht | L 0–2 H | L 0–1 A |
| St. Truiden | L 0–2 A | L 2–3 AW 2–0 H |
| Standard Liege | D 1–1 A | W 2–1 A |
| Cercle Brugge | D 0–0 H | W 2–0 H |
| Points | 12 of 48 · 0.75 per game | 29 of 48 · 1.81 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Dender wins0 draws1 Club Brugge KV wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 1 Nov 2025Club Brugge KV2–1Dender
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Dender | Club Brugge KV | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.82 | 1.41 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.59 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.41 | 2.41 | 2.80 |
| Over 1.5 | 76% | 53% | |
| Over 2.5 | 53% | 35% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 24% | 12% | |
| Both teams scored | 59% | 41% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 12% | 41% | |
| Failed to score | 41% | 18% | |
| Games | 17 | 17 |
| Dender | Club Brugge KV | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 2.70 | 2.80 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 40% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 40% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Dender | Club Brugge KV | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.06 | 6.63 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.88 | 4.75 | |
| Match total | 7.94 | 11.38 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 41% 7/17 | 81% 13/16 | |
| Over 9.5 | 29% 5/17 | 81% 13/16 | |
| Over 10.5 | 12% 2/17 | 69% 11/16 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.76 | 1.41 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.53 | 2.47 | |
| Match total | 3.29 | 3.88 | 4.04 |
| Over 3.5 | 47% 8/17 | 47% 8/17 | |
| Over 4.5 | 29% 5/17 | 29% 5/17 | |
| Dender | Club Brugge KV | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.50 | 4.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.70 | 5.33 | |
| Match total | 8.20 | 10.22 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.30 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 3.40 | 4.04 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bert Verbeke 10 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.70league 3.83
Red cards0.00league 0.18
Cards 5+10%league 42%
Fouls22.6league 23.0
Penalties0.10league 0.30
Home wins40%league 42%
Dender1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.0.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L13 Sep 25H · Union St. Gilloise0–10
Club Brugge KV1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W18 Oct 25A · OH Leuven1–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Dender17 games · scored 14 · conceded 27
4
3
0-15
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
3
5
46-60
1
7
61-75
5
7
76-90
Club Brugge KV17 games · scored 24 · conceded 17
2
5
0-15
3
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
5
1
46-60
5
2
61-75
7
5
76-90
Dender10 games · scored 12 · conceded 17
4
2
0-15
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
3
3
46-60
4
61-75
4
4
76-90
Club Brugge KV10 games · scored 9 · conceded 19
2
4
0-15
4
3
16-30
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
