Dender
Attack—
Defense risk—
Dender
16th · 19 pts · 29 played
LLDDL
First leg0–3
1–3Full time
Gent
6th · 42 pts · 29 played
WLLWW
Our take
Gent were slight favourites.
Gent were the stronger side on L90 Strength (37 vs 18). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Dender. Dender had 8 days of rest, Gent 8.9 and had to travel 31 km.
Away travel31 kmRest days8 · 8.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Dender32%
Draw27%
Gent41%
Dender30%
Draw27%
Gent44%
Dender32%
Draw27%
Gent41%
Dender26%
Draw26%
Gent48%
Dender33%
Draw27%
Gent41%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Denderleeuw)
No weather data yet
RefereeWesli De Cremer
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.59
- Matches 29
Team strength
DenderGent
18
L90 StrengthIn forecast
37
15
Current StrengthIn forecast
46
15
AttackIn forecast
46
15
DefenceIn forecast
61
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGent
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
DenderGent
0.79
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.59
1.66
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.45
1.05
xGVia Att/Def
1.35
1.46
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.49
-0.26
Goals minus xGContext
+0.24
59%
Scored inContext
79%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
24%
10.31
ShotsContext
12.62
3.62
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.31
35%
On target shareContext
34%
7.38
Shots in the boxContext
8.38
72%
Box shareContext
66%
8%
ConversionContext
13%
2.17
OffsidesContext
2.24
14.31
Shots allowedContext
13.45
4.71
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.62
3.81
BlocksContext
3.81
3.19
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.36
66%
Save rateContext
72%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
380
PassesContext
429
289
Accurate passesContext
352
76%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.89
10.55
FoulsContext
10.55
10.93
Fouls sufferedContext
11.10
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.55
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.14
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.31
xGVia Att/Def
1.59
1.45
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.35
-0.51
Goals minus xGContext
+0.41
60%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.90
ShotsContext
13.20
4.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
35%
On target shareContext
34%
8.70
Shots in the boxContext
9.80
74%
Box shareContext
73%
7%
ConversionContext
15%
2.14
OffsidesContext
2.29
14.30
Shots allowedContext
12.50
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.70
4.20
BlocksContext
2.90
3.63
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.30
71%
Save rateContext
62%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
370
PassesContext
383
278
Accurate passesContext
309
75%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.97
10.30
FoulsContext
10.90
9.80
Fouls sufferedContext
12.70
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Dender
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km39 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Gent
Rest8.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel31 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Dender |
Gent |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 14 Mar | 8.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 13 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 31 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 39 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | — | 139.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Dender
Confirmed XI
93G. Gallon(G)
88F. Ferraro
7B. Goncalves
5L. Marijnissen
70M. Sambu
17N. Mbamba
18N. Rôdes
16R. Květ
24M. Viltard
20D. Hrnčár
9David Toševski
Gent
Confirmed XI
33D. Roef(G)
44S. Van der Heyden
57Matties Volckaert
4D. Hashioka
20Tiago Araújo
22Leonardo Lopes
27T. De Vlieger
8M. Skóraś
24H. Hong
7A. Kanga
21M. Dean
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Dender
Absences are shown before kick-off
Gent
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Dender+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Gent+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Dender · Home
0.57points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-5-8
- Scored
- 0.79
- Conceded
- 1.79
Gent · Away
1.14points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-4-6
- Scored
- 1.36
- Conceded
- 1.79
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Dender | Gent |
|---|---|---|
| Union St. Gilloise | L 0–2 AL 0–1 H | D 1–1 AL 2–3 H |
| Charleroi | D 2–2 HL 1–3 A | W 3–2 AW 2–1 H |
| Cercle Brugge | D 0–0 AD 0–0 H | L 0–1 HW 4–2 A |
| St. Truiden | L 1–4 HL 0–2 A | L 1–2 HL 1–3 A |
| OH Leuven | L 2–3 AL 0–1 H | L 1–3 HL 0–4 A |
| Zulte Waregem | L 0–1 AD 2–2 H | W 2–0 HL 1–4 A |
| Genk | L 1–2 HL 1–2 A | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H |
| Anderlecht | D 0–0 AL 0–2 H | W 4–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Antwerp | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A | L 0–2 HW 2–1 A |
| KV Mechelen | D 1–1 AL 1–3 H | W 3–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Standard Liege | L 0–1 HD 1–1 A | W 4–0 AW 4–0 H |
| Club Brugge KV | L 1–5 HL 1–2 A | L 1–2 AD 1–1 H |
| RAAL La Louvière | W 2–1 AD 0–0 H | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H |
| KVC Westerlo | D 2–2 HD 1–1 A | W 2–0 HD 0–0 A |
| Points | 19 of 84 · 0.68 per game | 39 of 84 · 1.39 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Dender wins0 draws1 Gent wins
Goals per game0.00 – 3.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets0% · 100%
- 19 Sep 2025Gent3–0Dender
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Dender | Gent | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.79 | 1.59 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.66 | 1.45 | |
| Match goals | 2.45 | 3.03 | 2.68 |
| Over 1.5 | 69% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 48% | 59% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 28% | 38% | |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 59% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 24% | |
| Failed to score | 41% | 21% | |
| Games | 29 | 29 |
| Dender | Gent | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 3.30 | 2.68 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Dender | Gent | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.71 | 4.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.61 | 5.63 | |
| Match total | 9.32 | 10.30 | 9.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 16/28 | 63% 17/27 | |
| Over 9.5 | 46% 13/28 | 59% 16/27 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 7/28 | 52% 14/27 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.03 | 1.69 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.24 | 1.97 | |
| Match total | 3.27 | 3.66 | 4.06 |
| Over 3.5 | 41% 12/29 | 45% 13/29 | |
| Over 4.5 | 31% 9/29 | 38% 11/29 | |
| Dender | Gent | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.70 | 4.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.00 | 6.50 | |
| Match total | 11.70 | 11.40 | 9.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.90 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 3.50 | 4.06 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Wesli De Cremer 29 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.90league 3.84
Red cards0.21league 0.19
Cards 5+38%league 40%
Fouls24.2league 22.7
Penalties0.59league 0.32
Home wins55%league 41%
Dender3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.2.7 · 1.3
Pens for · against0 · 1
- D25 Jan 26A · Anderlecht0–04
- W23 Nov 25A · Antwerp2–14
- L30 Aug 25A · Charleroi1–30
Gent3 with this referee
Record1-0-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.7
Pens for · against2 · 2
Reds2
- L2 Nov 25A · OH Leuven0–43
- L2 Mar 24A · Standard Liege2–42
- W13 Aug 23A · KVC Westerlo3–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Dender29 games · scored 23 · conceded 48
6
8
0-15
2
5
16-30
3
5
31-45
4
7
46-60
2
10
61-75
6
13
76-90
Gent29 games · scored 46 · conceded 42
6
3
0-15
5
10
16-30
8
7
31-45
7
4
46-60
5
7
61-75
15
11
76-90
Dender10 games · scored 8 · conceded 15
2
4
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
5
76-90
Gent10 games · scored 20 · conceded 13
2
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
5
2
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
6
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
