Dender
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
KV Mechelen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (32 vs 20). Dender had 14 days of rest, KV Mechelen 15 and had to travel 32 km.
Away travel32 kmRest days14 · 15Matches / 14d1 · 0
Dender34%
Draw28%
KV Mechelen38%
Dender34%
Draw27%
KV Mechelen38%
Dender34%
Draw28%
KV Mechelen38%
Dender28%
Draw27%
KV Mechelen46%
Dender34%
Draw27%
KV Mechelen38%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Denderleeuw)
No weather data yet
RefereeMichiel Allaerts
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.00
- Matches 7
Team strength
Dender
KV Mechelen
20
L90 StrengthIn forecast
32
15
Current StrengthIn forecast
23
15
AttackIn forecast
18
15
DefenceIn forecast
23
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisKV Mechelen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
DenderKV Mechelen
0.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
0.66
xGVia Att/Def
1.28
1.52
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.52
-0.36
Goals minus xGContext
+0.02
30%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
8.30
ShotsContext
10.60
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
36%
On target shareContext
41%
5.90
Shots in the boxContext
7.78
69%
Box shareContext
68%
4%
ConversionContext
12%
2.50
OffsidesContext
1.57
13.40
Shots allowedContext
15.60
3.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.90
3.70
BlocksContext
4.80
2.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.78
69%
Save rateContext
92%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
406
PassesContext
375
314
Accurate passesContext
305
77%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.91
9.40
FoulsContext
9.40
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
9.90
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
0.66
xGVia Att/Def
1.28
1.52
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.52
-0.36
Goals minus xGContext
+0.02
30%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
8.30
ShotsContext
10.60
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
36%
On target shareContext
41%
5.90
Shots in the boxContext
7.78
69%
Box shareContext
68%
4%
ConversionContext
12%
2.50
OffsidesContext
1.57
13.40
Shots allowedContext
15.60
3.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.90
3.70
BlocksContext
4.80
2.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.78
69%
Save rateContext
92%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
406
PassesContext
375
314
Accurate passesContext
305
77%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.91
9.40
FoulsContext
9.40
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
9.90
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Dender
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km201 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
KV Mechelen
Rest15 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel32 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Dender |
KV Mechelen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 5 Oct | 15Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 4 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 32 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 201 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Dender
Confirmed XI
30G. Dietsch(G)
88F. Ferraro
44L. De Fougerolles
21K. Cools
5L. Marijnissen
70M. Sambu
16R. Květ
17N. Mbamba
18N. Rôdes
77B. Nsimba
90Mohamed Berte
KV Mechelen
Confirmed XI
13Nacho Mirás(G)
3José Marsà
8M. Konaté
2R. Halhal
23Moncef Zekri
17Mathis Servais
6F. Hammar
7T. Koudou
19A. Mrabti
9M. van Brederode
20L. Lauberbach
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Dender
Absences are shown before kick-off
KV Mechelen
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Dender+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- KV Mechelen+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Dender · Home
0.40points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-3
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 0.80
KV Mechelen · Away
1.60points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-1
- Scored
- 1.20
- Conceded
- 0.80
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 6 this season
| Opponent | Dender | KV Mechelen |
|---|---|---|
| RAAL La Louvière | D 0–0 H | W 3–2 H |
| Gent | L 0–3 A | D 1–1 H |
| Charleroi | L 1–3 A | W 2–0 A |
| St. Truiden | L 0–2 A | L 1–3 H |
| Standard Liege | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Cercle Brugge | D 0–0 H | D 0–0 H |
| Points | 3 of 18 · 0.50 per game | 9 of 18 · 1.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Dender | KV Mechelen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.30 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 1.80 | 2.40 | 2.62 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 40% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 70% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 70% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Dender | KV Mechelen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.30 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 1.80 | 2.40 | 2.62 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 40% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 70% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 70% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Dender | KV Mechelen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.80 | 5.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.70 | 7.30 | |
| Match total | 7.50 | 12.40 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.30 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 3.70 | 4.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Dender | KV Mechelen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.80 | 5.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.70 | 7.30 | |
| Match total | 7.50 | 12.40 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.30 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 3.70 | 4.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Michiel Allaerts 7 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.71league 3.93
Red cards0.14league 0.23
Cards 5+29%league 44%
Fouls22.6league 23.0
Penalties0.00league 0.30
Home wins43%league 42%
Dender1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.0.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D26 Jul 25H · Cercle Brugge0–00
KV Mechelen1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W9 Aug 25A · KVC Westerlo1–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Dender10 games · scored 3 · conceded 15
1
2
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
3
46-60
1
3
61-75
1
5
76-90
KV Mechelen10 games · scored 13 · conceded 11
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
3
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
4
61-75
3
5
76-90
Dender10 games · scored 3 · conceded 15
1
2
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
3
46-60
1
3
61-75
1
5
76-90
KV Mechelen10 games · scored 13 · conceded 11
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
3
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
4
61-75
3
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
