Dender
Attack—
Defense risk—
Dender
16th · 17 pts · 25 played
WDLLL
First leg0–2
1–4Full time
St. Truiden
2nd · 51 pts · 25 played
WWLWW
Our take
St. Truiden were slight favourites.
St. Truiden were the stronger side on L90 Strength (41 vs 19). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for St. Truiden. Dender had 7 days of rest, St. Truiden 5.9 and had to travel.
Rest days7 · 5.9Matches / 14d2 · 1
Dender28%
Draw26%
St. Truiden47%
Dender29%
Draw27%
St. Truiden45%
Dender28%
Draw26%
St. Truiden47%
Dender22%
Draw24%
St. Truiden55%
Dender28%
Draw26%
St. Truiden46%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Denderleeuw)
No weather data yet
RefereeSimon Bourdeaud'hui
- Cards per match 3.5
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 24
Team strength
DenderSt. Truiden
19
L90 StrengthIn forecast
41
15
Current StrengthIn forecast
35
15
AttackIn forecast
37
15
DefenceIn forecast
32
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSt. Truiden
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
DenderSt. Truiden
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.12
1.05
xGVia Att/Def
1.72
1.43
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.08
-0.25
Goals minus xGContext
-0.12
60%
Scored inContext
84%
16%
Clean sheetsContext
28%
10.32
ShotsContext
14.20
3.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.52
35%
On target shareContext
32%
7.44
Shots in the boxContext
9.58
72%
Box shareContext
67%
8%
ConversionContext
11%
2.29
OffsidesContext
2.68
14.00
Shots allowedContext
11.40
4.58
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.92
3.52
BlocksContext
3.43
3.04
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.92
65%
Save rateContext
72%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
383
PassesContext
440
292
Accurate passesContext
360
76%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.92
10.72
FoulsContext
11.76
11.20
Fouls sufferedContext
11.20
1.96
Yellow cardsContext
1.92
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.08
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.36
xGVia Att/Def
1.87
1.51
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.02
-0.36
Goals minus xGContext
+0.03
70%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.40
ShotsContext
14.00
4.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.80
37%
On target shareContext
34%
8.70
Shots in the boxContext
10.00
77%
Box shareContext
67%
9%
ConversionContext
14%
2.25
OffsidesContext
2.11
13.80
Shots allowedContext
12.40
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.60
3.25
BlocksContext
4.11
3.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
64%
Save rateContext
69%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
371
PassesContext
443
277
Accurate passesContext
360
75%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.93
11.00
FoulsContext
10.70
10.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
2.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Dender
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km178 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
St. Truiden
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Dender |
St. Truiden |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 14 Feb | 5.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 15 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | — |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 178 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.1 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
Dender
Confirmed XI
93G. Gallon(G)
7B. Goncalves
21K. Cools
44L. De Fougerolles
88F. Ferraro
24M. Viltard
17N. Mbamba
5L. Marijnissen
16R. Květ
77B. Nsimba
9David Toševski
St. Truiden
Confirmed XI
16L. Kokubo(G)
18S. Juklerød
4L. Mbe Soh
5S. Taniguchi
3T. Hata
13R. Ito
8A. Sissako
6R. Yamamoto
10I. Sebaoui
42Keisuke Goto
60R. Vanwesemael
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Dender
Absences are shown before kick-off
St. Truiden
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Dender+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- St. Truiden+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Dender · Home
0.58points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-4-7
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 1.58
St. Truiden · Away
1.92points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 7-2-3
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 1.08
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Dender | St. Truiden |
|---|---|---|
| OH Leuven | L 2–3 AL 0–1 H | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Zulte Waregem | L 0–1 AD 2–2 H | W 3–2 HW 2–0 A |
| Genk | L 1–2 HL 1–2 A | L 1–2 H |
| Anderlecht | D 0–0 AL 0–2 H | L 1–2 AD 2–2 H |
| Antwerp | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| KV Mechelen | D 1–1 AL 1–3 H | W 1–0 HW 3–1 A |
| Standard Liege | L 0–1 HD 1–1 A | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Club Brugge KV | L 1–5 HL 1–2 A | W 3–2 HL 0–2 A |
| RAAL La Louvière | W 2–1 AD 0–0 H | W 2–1 AW 2–1 H |
| KVC Westerlo | D 2–2 HD 1–1 A | W 4–0 AL 0–3 H |
| Gent | L 0–3 A | W 2–1 AW 3–1 H |
| Union St. Gilloise | L 0–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Charleroi | L 1–3 A | L 0–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Cercle Brugge | D 0–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Points | 17 of 72 · 0.71 per game | 48 of 72 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Dender wins0 draws1 St. Truiden wins
Goals per game0.00 – 2.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets0% · 100%
- 8 Aug 2025St. Truiden2–0Dender
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Dender | St. Truiden | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.12 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 2.72 | 2.85 |
| Over 1.5 | 68% | 84% | |
| Over 2.5 | 48% | 56% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 24% | 24% | |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 56% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 16% | 28% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 16% | |
| Games | 25 | 25 |
| Dender | St. Truiden | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 3.00 | 2.85 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 70% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Dender | St. Truiden | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.58 | 5.46 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.04 | 4.54 | |
| Match total | 8.62 | 10.00 | 9.81 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 12/24 | 71% 17/24 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 9/24 | 67% 16/24 | |
| Over 10.5 | 17% 4/24 | 50% 12/24 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.12 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.36 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 3.48 | 4.40 | 4.16 |
| Over 3.5 | 48% 12/25 | 64% 16/25 | |
| Over 4.5 | 36% 9/25 | 32% 8/25 | |
| Dender | St. Truiden | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.22 | 4.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 5.10 | |
| Match total | 9.22 | 9.80 | 9.81 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.80 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 5.30 | 4.16 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Simon Bourdeaud'hui 24 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.33league 3.94
Red cards0.13league 0.19
Cards 5+25%league 42%
Fouls23.0league 22.9
Penalties0.25league 0.30
Home wins38%league 40%
Dender2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 1
- L14 Feb 26A · OH Leuven2–31
- D2 Aug 25A · Standard Liege1–13
St. Truiden1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.0.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W23 Dec 23H · Charleroi1–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Dender25 games · scored 20 · conceded 40
5
7
0-15
1
4
16-30
2
4
31-45
4
6
46-60
2
9
61-75
6
10
76-90
St. Truiden25 games · scored 40 · conceded 28
4
1
0-15
7
7
16-30
8
5
31-45
4
4
46-60
5
7
61-75
12
4
76-90
Dender10 games · scored 10 · conceded 16
2
4
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
3
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
1
3
76-90
St. Truiden10 games · scored 19 · conceded 11
3
0-15
1
5
16-30
6
31-45
2
1
46-60
3
4
61-75
4
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
