Dinamo Zagreb vs Anderlecht – 15 Oct 2026

UEFA Europa League Matchday 2 Thu, Oct 15 · 20:00 Khalifa International Stadium, Al Rayyan (Ar-Rayyan)

Dinamo Zagreb 20th · 1 pts · 1 played D

1–0Full time

Anderlecht 26th · 0 pts · 1 played L

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Dinamo Zagreb were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Anderlecht. Dinamo Zagreb were without S. McKenna. Anderlecht were without G. Biancone and Ilias Koutsoupias. Dinamo Zagreb had 29 days of rest, Anderlecht 5.2 and had to travel.

Rest days29 · 5.2Matches / 14d0 · 1

Dinamo Zagreb42%

Draw24%

Anderlecht33%

Expected goals 1.60 – 1.39

Dinamo Zagreb43%

Draw26%

Anderlecht32%

Expected goals 1.46 – 1.22

Dinamo Zagreb41%

Draw25%

Anderlecht34%

Expected goals 1.53 – 1.36

Dinamo Zagreb35%

Draw24%

Anderlecht41%

Expected goals 1.42 – 1.56

Dinamo Zagreb42%

Draw25%

Anderlecht33%

Expected goals 1.56 – 1.35

Over 2.5 57% Both score 60% Likeliest score 1–1

Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Al Rayyan (Ar-Rayyan))

No weather data yet

RefereeOrel Grinfeld

Cards per match 3.5
Penalties per match 0.25
Matches 4

Team strength

Dinamo Zagreb

Anderlecht

42 L90 StrengthIn forecast 45

43 Current StrengthIn forecast 43

33 AttackIn forecast 37

44 DefenceIn forecast 52

— Form indexContext 64

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Dinamo Zagreb

Attack—

Defense risk—

Anderlecht

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Dinamo Zagreb

Anderlecht

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.70

1.13 xGVia Att/Def 0.98

1.64 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.01

+0.67 Goals minus xGContext +0.42

80% Scored inContext 70%

20% Clean sheetsContext 60%

17.00 ShotsContext 12.63

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.50

24% On target shareContext 36%

10.00 Shots in the boxContext 8.38

60% Box shareContext 63%

8% ConversionContext 8%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.63

12.63 Shots allowedContext 10.88

4.75 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.63

5.14 BlocksContext 2.00

2.75 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.63

58% Save rateContext 78%

52% PossessionIn forecast 60%

508 PassesContext 534

420 Accurate passesContext 455

83% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.86 Team ratingContext 6.92

11.44 FoulsContext 13.10

13.11 Fouls sufferedContext 11.40

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 2.10

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Dinamo Zagreb D

Rest29 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel—0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 45 · 1 pts vs 1.5 for an average club · -0.4 vs expected

D16 SepA · Hapoel Beer Sheva0–01.4 xPts

Anderlecht DWLWW

Rest5.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel—176 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 64 · 10 pts vs 8.4 for an average club · +2.2 vs expected

W10 OctA · Cercle Brugge2–11.6 xPts
W19 SepH · Zulte Waregem3–01.7 xPts
L16 SepH · Lyon1–21.5 xPts
W11 SepA · KV Mechelen1–01.7 xPts
D6 SepH · Genk0–01.4 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Dinamo Zagreb	Anderlecht
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	29UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 16 Sep	5.2Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 10 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	—	—
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	176 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	1 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	6.9	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.

Squad & lineups

Dinamo Zagreb Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

24D. Kotarski(G)

22M. Vinlöf 6S. Radeljić 36Sergi Domínguez 15N. Galešić

27J. Mišić

11A. Hoxha 17L. Ivanušec 10L. Stojković 23Iker Almena

9D. Beljo

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Anderlecht Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

26C. Coosemans(G)

5O. Reabciuk 27L. Pétrot 12A. Omobamidele 50K. Barry

19Thelo Aasgaard 29M. Stroeykens

83T. Degreef 18L. Ambros 10M. Winkler

9M. CvetkoviÄ

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Dinamo Zagreb Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.05 goals

Attack line −2.3% · Defence line −20.4% of weighted minutes

DEF S. McKenna Starter 6.88 Def −16.0%
DEF I. Nevistić Rotation 6.62 Def −3.0%
MID F. Topić Rotation 6.99 Att −2.2% Def −1.4%
MID R. Mudražija Depth 6.40 Att −0.1%

4 without recent minutes (no impact): S. Radeljić, Noah Nsoki, P. Tabinas, A. StojakoviÄ

Anderlecht Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.07 goals

Attack line −10.2% · Defence line −28.7% of weighted minutes

DEF G. Biancone Core 7.38 Def −16.0%
MID Ilias Koutsoupias Starter 7.07 Att −10.2% Def −4.6%
DEF K. Sardella Rotation 6.55 Def −3.0%
DEF L. Hey Rotation 6.79 Def −2.9%
DEF I. Camara Rotation 6.42 Def −2.1%

Total impact vs full squads

Dinamo Zagreb+1.0 pp
Draw-0.6 pp
Anderlecht-0.4 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Dinamo Zagreb · Home No home games yet this season.

Anderlecht · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Dinamo Zagreb	Anderlecht	Forecast
Scored per game	0.00	1.00
Conceded per game	0.00	2.00
Match goals	0.00	3.00	2.99
Over 1.5	0%	100%
Over 2.5	0%	100%	57%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	100%	60%
Clean sheets	100%	0%
Failed to score	100%	0%
Games	1	1

	Dinamo Zagreb	Anderlecht	Forecast
Scored per game	1.80	1.40
Conceded per game	1.70	0.70
Match goals	3.50	2.10	2.99
Over 1.5	90%	60%
Over 2.5	70%	60%	57%
Over 3.5	60%	0%
Both teams scored	70%	20%	60%
Clean sheets	20%	60%
Failed to score	20%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Dinamo Zagreb	Anderlecht	League
Corners
Corners won	2.00	6.00
Corners conceded	6.00	4.00
Match total	8.00	10.00	9.67
Over 8.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Over 9.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	0.00	0.00
Opponent cards	0.00	2.00
Match total	0.00	2.00	3.71
Over 3.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1

	Dinamo Zagreb	Anderlecht	League
Corners
Corners won	5.78	6.40
Corners conceded	5.11	3.30
Match total	10.89	9.70	9.67
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	1.90	2.10
Opponent cards	1.70	1.60
Match total	3.60	3.70	3.71
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Orel Grinfeld 4 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.50league 3.58

Red cards0.00league 0.12

Cards 5+25%league 38%

Fouls25.5league 24.7

Penalties0.25league 0.23

Home wins50%league 38%

Dinamo Zagreb

No previous matches with this referee.

Anderlecht

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.