Dinamo Zagreb
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Dinamo Zagreb were slight favourites.
Dinamo Zagreb were the stronger side on L90 Strength (48 vs 33). Absences weigh more on Dinamo Zagreb. Dinamo Zagreb had 42.1 days of rest, FCSB 42 and had to travel 802 km.
Away travel802 kmRest days42.1 · 42Matches / 14d0 · 0
Dinamo Zagreb52%
Draw25%
FCSB23%
Dinamo Zagreb53%
Draw25%
FCSB22%
Dinamo Zagreb53%
Draw25%
FCSB22%
Dinamo Zagreb45%
Draw26%
FCSB29%
Dinamo Zagreb52%
Draw25%
FCSB23%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Zagreb)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsSander van der Eijk
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.20
- Matches 51
Team strength
Dinamo Zagreb
FCSB
48
L90 StrengthIn forecast
33
43
Current StrengthIn forecast
33
33
AttackIn forecast
36
44
DefenceIn forecast
33
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFCSB
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Dinamo ZagrebFCSB
1.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.17
2.17
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.83
0.83
xGVia Att/Def
0.73
1.06
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.87
+0.50
Goals minus xGContext
+0.44
67%
Scored inContext
67%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
9.17
ShotsContext
10.83
3.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
35%
On target shareContext
42%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
6.33
65%
Box shareContext
63%
15%
ConversionContext
11%
1.83
OffsidesContext
1.67
10.17
Shots allowedContext
17.50
4.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.83
2.33
BlocksContext
4.83
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.00
58%
Save rateContext
73%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
490
PassesContext
358
422
Accurate passesContext
282
86%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.68
Team ratingContext
6.81
9.00
FoulsContext
13.50
8.83
Fouls sufferedContext
11.67
1.33
Yellow cardsContext
2.67
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.17
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
0.69
xGVia Att/Def
0.73
1.19
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.87
+0.31
Goals minus xGContext
+1.07
50%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
8.80
ShotsContext
10.50
3.38
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.63
31%
On target shareContext
44%
5.56
Shots in the boxContext
6.33
56%
Box shareContext
63%
11%
ConversionContext
14%
2.20
OffsidesContext
1.57
11.60
Shots allowedContext
17.50
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.50
3.10
BlocksContext
6.00
2.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.63
57%
Save rateContext
71%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
419
PassesContext
358
350
Accurate passesContext
282
84%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.69
Team ratingContext
6.81
9.30
FoulsContext
12.63
9.80
Fouls sufferedContext
12.50
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Dinamo Zagreb
Rest42.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
FCSB
Rest42 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel802 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Dinamo Zagreb |
FCSB |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 42.1UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 11 Dec | 42UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 11 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 802 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 0 | 0 / 0 / 0 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Dinamo Zagreb
Confirmed XI
44I. Filipović(G)
3B. Goda
26S. McKenna
36Sergi Domínguez
15N. Galešić
27J. Mišić
11A. Hoxha
8M. Zajc
77D. Ljubičić
71M. Bakrar
9D. Beljo
FCSB
Confirmed XI
32Ș. Târnovanu(G)
33R. Radunović
5J. Dawa
30S. Ngezana
4D. Graovac
42B. Alhassan
16M. Lixandru
31Juri Cisotti
27D. Olaru
11D. Miculescu
9G. Bîrligea
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Dinamo Zagreb
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
FCSB
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Dinamo Zagreb-1.0 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- FCSB+0.8 pp
Home / Away this season
Dinamo Zagreb · Home
1.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 2.33
FCSB · Away
1.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 1.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Dinamo Zagreb | FCSB | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.33 | 1.17 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.17 | 1.83 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 3.00 | 2.79 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 50% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 67% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 50% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 33% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Dinamo Zagreb | FCSB | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.33 | 1.17 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.17 | 1.83 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 3.00 | 2.79 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 50% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 67% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 50% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 33% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Dinamo Zagreb | FCSB | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 4.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 6.33 | |
| Match total | 8.50 | 10.66 | 9.10 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 3/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 2/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 2/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.33 | 2.83 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.67 | 2.33 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 5.16 | 4.35 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% 2/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 2/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Dinamo Zagreb | FCSB | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.20 | 4.13 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.70 | 5.63 | |
| Match total | 9.90 | 9.76 | 9.10 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.90 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 5.30 | 4.35 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Sander van der Eijk Netherlands · 51 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.43league 4.12
Red cards0.33league 0.21
Cards 5+33%league 42%
Fouls22.4league 24.2
Penalties0.20league 0.36
Home wins45%league 49%
Dinamo ZagrebNo previous matches with this referee.
FCSBNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Dinamo Zagreb6 games · scored 8 · conceded 13
2
0-15
3
3
16-30
6
31-45
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
1
76-90
FCSB6 games · scored 7 · conceded 11
2
3
0-15
1
16-30
3
31-45
3
2
46-60
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
Dinamo Zagreb10 games · scored 10 · conceded 20
3
0-15
4
3
16-30
7
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
FCSB9 games · scored 16 · conceded 14
3
4
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
3
31-45
5
4
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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