Dinamo Zagreb vs Fenerbahce – 24 Sep 2025

UEFA Europa League Matchday 1 Wed, Sep 24 · 20:00 Stadion Maksimir, Zagreb

Dinamo Zagreb

3–1Full time

Fenerbahce

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Fenerbahce were the stronger side on L90 Strength (63 vs 53). Dinamo Zagreb had ? days of rest, Fenerbahce 3.1 and had to travel 1,174 km.

Away travel1,174 kmRest days? · 3.1Matches / 14d0 · 3

Dinamo Zagreb37%

Draw27%

Fenerbahce36%

Expected goals 1.41 – 1.39

Dinamo Zagreb37%

Draw27%

Fenerbahce35%

Expected goals 1.36 – 1.31

Dinamo Zagreb37%

Draw27%

Fenerbahce36%

Expected goals 1.41 – 1.39

Dinamo Zagreb30%

Draw26%

Fenerbahce44%

Expected goals 1.26 – 1.56

Dinamo Zagreb37%

Draw27%

Fenerbahce35%

Expected goals 1.36 – 1.31

Over 2.5 53% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Zagreb)

No weather data yet

Referee · FranceJérôme Brisard

Cards per match 3.7
Penalties per match 0.36
Matches 92

Team strength

Dinamo Zagreb

Fenerbahce

53 L90 StrengthIn forecast 63

43 Current StrengthIn forecast 62

33 AttackIn forecast 75

44 DefenceIn forecast 53

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Dinamo Zagreb

Attack—

Defense risk—

Fenerbahce

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Dinamo Zagreb

Fenerbahce

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60

1.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

0.86 xGVia Att/Def 1.97

2.09 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.63

+0.84 Goals minus xGContext -0.37

70% Scored inContext 70%

40% Clean sheetsContext 30%

10.30 ShotsContext 14.20

3.89 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.89

34% On target shareContext 31%

6.44 Shots in the boxContext 8.10

56% Box shareContext 56%

17% ConversionContext 11%

2.14 OffsidesContext 2.40

15.80 Shots allowedContext 10.20

5.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.80

4.30 BlocksContext 4.38

3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.25

61% Save rateContext 72%

39% PossessionIn forecast 58%

337 PassesContext 464

265 Accurate passesContext 392

79% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.95 Team ratingContext 7.05

11.50 FoulsContext 14.30

10.60 Fouls sufferedContext 14.70

2.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Dinamo Zagreb

Rest—since last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Fenerbahce

Rest3.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel1,174 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load35%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Dinamo Zagreb	Fenerbahce
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Moderate · 35
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	—	3.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 21 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,174 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	1 / 3 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	8	3.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Dinamo Zagreb Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

33I. Nevistić(G)

3B. Goda 26S. McKenna 36Sergi Domínguez

27J. Mišić

11A. Hoxha 8M. Zajc 77D. Ljubičić 21M. Lisica

9D. Beljo

Fenerbahce Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

31Ederson(G)

24J. Oosterwolde 37M. Škriniar 4Ç. Söyüncü

3A. Brown 27Nélson Semedo 21Marco Asensio 45D. Nene

9M. Aktürkoğlu 53S. Szymański

19Y. En-Nesyri

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Dinamo Zagreb Absences are shown before kick-off

Fenerbahce Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Dinamo Zagreb+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Fenerbahce+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Dinamo Zagreb · Home No home games yet this season.

Fenerbahce · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Dinamo Zagreb	Fenerbahce	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.80
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	53%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	57%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Dinamo Zagreb	Fenerbahce	Forecast
Scored per game	—	1.67
Conceded per game	—	0.83
Match goals	—	2.50	2.80
Over 1.5	—	67%
Over 2.5	—	50%	53%
Over 3.5	—	50%
Both teams scored	—	67%	57%
Clean sheets	—	33%
Failed to score	—	17%
Games	0	6

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Dinamo Zagreb	Fenerbahce	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	9.50
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	4.50
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Dinamo Zagreb	Fenerbahce	League
Corners
Corners won	3.89	4.43
Corners conceded	7.33	4.14
Match total	11.22	8.57	9.50
Over 8.5	89% 8/9	29% 2/7
Over 9.5	78% 7/9	29% 2/7
Over 10.5	67% 6/9	29% 2/7
Cards
Cards	2.30	2.10
Opponent cards	2.20	3.20
Match total	4.50	5.30	4.50
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jérôme Brisard France · 92 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.43league 4.50

Red cards0.25league 0.00

Cards 5+32%league 50%

Fouls24.2league 32.0

Penalties0.36league 0.00

Home wins37%league 50%

Dinamo Zagreb

No previous matches with this referee.

Fenerbahce

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.