Dinamo Zagreb
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Dinamo Zagreb43.2%fair odds 2.32
Draw25.5%fair odds 3.92
Genk31.3%fair odds 3.19
Expected goals1.61 – 1.34total 2.95
Likeliest score1–111.9%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Genk
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Dinamo Zagreb ↓ · Genk → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.4 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.9 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.1 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Dinamo Zagreb goals, columns Genk goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.9%8.41
- 2–19.1%11.01
- 1–07.8%12.78
- 1–27.6%13.21
- 2–06.8%14.76
- 0–16.4%15.58
- 2–26.1%16.42
- 0–05.8%17.15
- 3–14.9%20.52
- 0–24.7%21.26
Winning margin
9.2%
Dinamo Zagreb by 3+
fair 10.89
13.2%
Dinamo Zagreb by 2
fair 7.59
20.8%
Dinamo Zagreb by 1
fair 4.80
25.5%
Draw
fair 3.92
17.3%
Genk by 1
fair 5.79
9.1%
Genk by 2
fair 10.94
4.9%
Genk by 3+
fair 20.32
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
14%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
18%5+
Dinamo Zagreb goals
20%0
32%1
26%2
14%3
8%4+
Genk goals
26%0
35%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dinamo Zagreb win | 43.2% | 43.6% | -0.4 pp |
| Draw | 25.5% | 25.9% | -0.4 pp |
| Genk win | 31.3% | 30.5% | +0.8 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 56.6% | 54.3% | +2.2 pp |
| Both teams score | 59.7% | 57.9% | +1.8 pp |
| Expected goals Dinamo Zagreb | 1.61 | 1.57 | +0.04 |
| Expected goals Genk | 1.34 | 1.28 | +0.06 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Dinamo Zagreb win43.2%2.32
- Draw25.5%3.92
- Genk win31.3%3.19
- Double chance Dinamo Zagreb or draw68.7%1.46
- Double chance Dinamo Zagreb or Genk74.5%1.34
- Double chance Genk or draw56.8%1.76
- Draw no bet Dinamo Zagreb58.0%1.73
- Draw no bet Genk42.0%2.38
Goals
- Over 0.594.2%1.06
- Over 1.579.9%1.25
- Over 2.556.6%1.77
- Over 3.534.2%2.93
- Over 4.517.6%5.67
- Under 1.520.1%4.98
- Under 2.543.4%2.30
- Under 3.565.8%1.52
Both teams to score
- Yes59.7%1.68
- No40.3%2.48
- Yes and over 2.547.8%2.09
- Dinamo Zagreb win and yes22.9%4.38
- Draw and yes19.7%5.09
- Genk win and yes17.2%5.83
Team goals
- Dinamo Zagreb over 0.580.0%1.25
- Dinamo Zagreb over 1.547.8%2.09
- Dinamo Zagreb over 2.521.9%4.57
- Genk over 0.573.8%1.35
- Genk over 1.538.8%2.58
- Genk over 2.515.2%6.56
- Dinamo Zagreb clean sheet26.2%3.82
- Genk clean sheet20.0%5.00
- Dinamo Zagreb win to nil20.3%4.92
- Genk win to nil14.2%7.06
Handicap
- Dinamo Zagreb −1.522.4%4.47
- Dinamo Zagreb −2.59.2%10.89
- Genk +1.577.6%1.29
- Genk +2.590.8%1.10
- Genk −1.514.1%7.11
- Dinamo Zagreb +1.585.9%1.16
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record UEFA Europa League 2025-2026
No finished matches with a forecast in this competition yet.