Dinamo Zagreb vs Genk – 19 Feb 2026

UEFA Europa League Knockout round play-offs Thu, Feb 19 · 17:45 Stadion Maksimir, Zagreb

Dinamo Zagreb

1–3Full time

Genk

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Dinamo Zagreb were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Genk. Dinamo Zagreb had 20.9 days of rest, Genk 5.9 and had to travel 961 km.

Away travel961 kmRest days20.9 · 5.9Matches / 14d0 · 2

Dinamo Zagreb43%

Draw25%

Genk31%

Expected goals 1.61 – 1.34

Dinamo Zagreb47%

Draw26%

Genk27%

Expected goals 1.58 – 1.13

Dinamo Zagreb43%

Draw26%

Genk32%

Expected goals 1.59 – 1.34

Dinamo Zagreb36%

Draw26%

Genk39%

Expected goals 1.44 – 1.50

Dinamo Zagreb44%

Draw26%

Genk30%

Expected goals 1.57 – 1.28

Over 2.5 57% Both score 60% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Zagreb)

No weather data yet

Referee · TürkiyeHalil Umut Meler

Cards per match 4.8
Penalties per match 0.27
Matches 30

Team strength

Dinamo Zagreb

Genk

48 L90 StrengthIn forecast 42

43 Current StrengthIn forecast 44

33 AttackIn forecast 46

44 DefenceIn forecast 50

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Dinamo Zagreb

Attack—

Defense risk—

Genk

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Dinamo Zagreb

Genk

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

0.91 xGVia Att/Def 1.69

1.14 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.21

+0.49 Goals minus xGContext +0.21

60% Scored inContext 100%

0% Clean sheetsContext 20%

9.60 ShotsContext 14.70

4.13 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.30

34% On target shareContext 43%

6.00 Shots in the boxContext 10.00

56% Box shareContext 67%

15% ConversionContext 13%

2.11 OffsidesContext 2.17

10.80 Shots allowedContext 13.20

4.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00

3.00 BlocksContext 3.20

2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.60

58% Save rateContext 72%

47% PossessionIn forecast 55%

427 PassesContext 488

354 Accurate passesContext 413

83% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.73 Team ratingContext 6.93

10.20 FoulsContext 10.20

10.60 Fouls sufferedContext 11.80

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.30

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Dinamo Zagreb

Rest20.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Genk

Rest5.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel961 km144 km in 14d

Schedule load12%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Dinamo Zagreb	Genk
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	20.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 29 Jan	5.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 13 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	961 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	144 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 2	1 / 2 / 6
Next matchdays after this one	7.1	2.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Dinamo Zagreb Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

40D. Livaković(G)

22M. Vinlöf 26S. McKenna 36Sergi Domínguez 25Moris Valinčić

27J. Mišić

11A. Hoxha 8M. Zajc 7L. Stojković 30F. Topić

9D. Beljo

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Genk Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

26T. Lawal(G)

18J. Kayembe 6M. Smets 3Mujaid Sadick 77Z. El Ouahdi

38D. Heymans 8B. Heynen

10J. Ito 20K. Karetsas 7J. Steuckers

23A. Bibout

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Dinamo Zagreb Absences are shown before kick-off

Genk Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Dinamo Zagreb+0.4 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Genk-0.3 pp

Home / Away this season

Dinamo Zagreb · Home No home games yet this season.

Genk · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Dinamo Zagreb	Genk	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.95
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	57%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	60%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Dinamo Zagreb	Genk	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	1.90
Conceded per game	2.00	1.50
Match goals	3.50	3.40	2.95
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	75%	60%	57%
Over 3.5	63%	30%
Both teams scored	63%	80%	60%
Clean sheets	0%	20%
Failed to score	38%	0%
Games	8	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Dinamo Zagreb	Genk
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Dinamo Zagreb	Genk
Corners
Corners won	4.40	4.89
Corners conceded	5.00	4.78
Match total	9.40	9.67
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	1.60	1.30
Opponent cards	2.00	1.70
Match total	3.60	3.00
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Halil Umut Meler Türkiye · 30 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.57

Red cards0.23

Cards 5+50%

Fouls24.5

Penalties0.27

Home wins27%

Dinamo Zagreb

No previous matches with this referee.

Genk

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.