Bundesliga Gameweek 28 Sun, Apr 5 · 16:30 Deutsche Bank Park, Frankfurt am Main
Eintracht Frankfurt 7th · 38 pts · 27 played
2–2Full time
1.FC Köln 15th · 26 pts · 27 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Eintracht Frankfurt were slight favourites.

Eintracht Frankfurt were the stronger side on L90 Strength (54 vs 35). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for 1.FC Köln. Eintracht Frankfurt had 14 days of rest, 1.FC Köln 15 and had to travel 153 km.

Away travel153 kmRest days14 · 15Matches / 14d0 · 0
Eintracht Frankfurt54%
Draw25%
1.FC Köln21%
Expected goals 1.74 – 0.98
Eintracht Frankfurt56%
Draw24%
1.FC Köln20%
Expected goals 1.80 – 1.00
Eintracht Frankfurt54%
Draw25%
1.FC Köln21%
Expected goals 1.71 – 0.99
Eintracht Frankfurt47%
Draw27%
1.FC Köln26%
Expected goals 1.55 – 1.10
Eintracht Frankfurt53%
Draw26%
1.FC Köln21%
Expected goals 1.60 – 0.92
Over 2.5 51% Both score 52% Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Frankfurt am Main)

No weather data yet

Referee · GermanyFlorian Exner
  • Cards per match 4.8
  • Penalties per match 0.42
  • Matches 26

Team strength

Eintracht Frankfurt1.FC Köln
54 L90 StrengthIn forecast 35
48 Current StrengthIn forecast 34
54 AttackIn forecast 36
37 DefenceIn forecast 36
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Eintracht Frankfurt

Attack—
Defense risk—

1.FC Köln

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Eintracht Frankfurt1.FC Köln
1.85 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.41
1.89 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.74
1.24 xGVia Att/Def 1.21
1.29 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.48
+0.61 Goals minus xGContext +0.20
89% Scored inContext 85%
26% Clean sheetsContext 11%
11.26 ShotsContext 11.96
4.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.19
39% On target shareContext 34%
7.96 Shots in the boxContext 8.42
71% Box shareContext 68%
16% ConversionContext 12%
1.88 OffsidesContext 2.47
11.67 Shots allowedContext 13.30
4.54 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.69
2.84 BlocksContext 4.08
2.68 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.17
58% Save rateContext 64%
55% PossessionIn forecast 47%
495 PassesContext 393
417 Accurate passesContext 318
84% Pass accuracyContext 81%
6.78 Team ratingContext 6.82
9.59 FoulsContext 7.89
9.81 Fouls sufferedContext 10.56
1.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.81
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.07
This league season, per match · 27 and 27 games
1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30
1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80
1.05 xGVia Att/Def 1.21
1.14 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.45
+0.15 Goals minus xGContext +0.09
80% Scored inContext 90%
40% Clean sheetsContext 10%
9.10 ShotsContext 12.50
3.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.40
41% On target shareContext 27%
6.70 Shots in the boxContext 9.90
72% Box shareContext 80%
13% ConversionContext 10%
2.50 OffsidesContext 3.20
11.50 Shots allowedContext 12.00
4.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.10
3.75 BlocksContext 3.89
2.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.75
71% Save rateContext 60%
57% PossessionIn forecast 48%
527 PassesContext 373
457 Accurate passesContext 292
87% Pass accuracyContext 78%
6.78 Team ratingContext 6.80
8.10 FoulsContext 7.40
10.50 Fouls sufferedContext 11.30
1.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.20
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Eintracht Frankfurt
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.
1.FC Köln
Rest15 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel153 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Eintracht Frankfurt 1.FC Köln
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match14Bundesliga 2025-2026, 22 Mar15Bundesliga 2025-2026, 21 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km153 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 0 / 20 / 0 / 2
Next matchdays after this one5.96.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Eintracht Frankfurt Confirmed XI
3-4-2-1
23M. Zetterer(G)
3A. Theate 4R. Koch 5A. Amenda
21N. Brown 6O. Højlund 16H. Larsson 7A. Knauff
25A. Kalimuendo 20R. Doan
9J. Burkardt
+4 more reported missing outside this XI
1.FC Köln Confirmed XI
5-3-2
1M. Schwäbe(G)
32K. Lund 39C. Özkacar 33R. van den Berg 28S. Sebulonsen 29J. Thielmann
16J. Kamiński 8D. Huseinbašić 5T. Krauß
13S. El Mala 9R. Ache
+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Eintracht Frankfurt Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
1.FC Köln Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
  • Eintracht Frankfurt+0.7 pp
  • Draw-0.3 pp
  • 1.FC Köln-0.4 pp

Home / Away this season

Eintracht Frankfurt · Home 1.77points per game · 13 home games
W-D-L
7-2-4
Scored
1.77
Conceded
1.38
1.FC Köln · Away 0.77points per game · 13 away games
W-D-L
2-4-7
Scored
1.00
Conceded
1.77

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

OpponentEintracht Frankfurt1.FC Köln
FSV Mainz 05 L 1–2 AW 1–0 H W 2–1 HW 1–0 A
1. FC Heidenheim W 1–0 HD 1–1 A D 2–2 A
FC St. Pauli D 0–0 AW 2–0 H D 1–1 H
SC Freiburg W 2–0 HD 2–2 A L 1–2 AW 4–1 H
Bayern München L 2–3 AL 0–3 H L 1–3 H
Borussia Mönchengladbach W 3–0 HW 6–4 A D 3–3 HL 1–3 A
Union Berlin D 1–1 AL 3–4 H L 0–1 H
Bayer Leverkusen L 1–3 HL 1–3 A L 0–2 A
1899 Hoffenheim L 1–3 HW 3–1 A D 2–2 HW 1–0 A
Werder Bremen D 3–3 AW 4–1 H D 1–1 A
VfB Stuttgart L 2–3 A L 1–3 AL 1–2 H
Borussia Dortmund D 3–3 H L 1–2 HL 0–1 A
Hamburger SV D 1–1 A D 1–1 AW 4–1 H
FC Augsburg W 1–0 H L 0–2 AD 1–1 H
RB Leipzig L 0–6 A L 1–2 HL 1–3 A
VfL Wolfsburg D 1–1 H W 1–0 HD 3–3 A
Points35 of 78 · 1.35 per game26 of 78 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

1 Eintracht Frankfurt wins3 draws3 1.FC Köln wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.71 Over 2.529% Both scored57% Clean sheets0% · 43%
  • 22 Nov 20251.FC Köln3–4Eintracht Frankfurt
  • 3 Feb 20241.FC Köln2–0Eintracht Frankfurt
  • 3 Sep 2023Eintracht Frankfurt1–11.FC Köln
  • 12 Feb 20231.FC Köln3–0Eintracht Frankfurt
  • 21 Aug 2022Eintracht Frankfurt1–11.FC Köln
  • 19 Feb 20221.FC Köln1–0Eintracht Frankfurt

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Eintracht Frankfurt1.FC KölnForecast
Scored per game 1.851.41
Conceded per game 1.891.74
Match goals 3.743.15 2.72
Over 1.5 85%81%
Over 2.5 63%59% 51%
Over 3.5 52%41%
Both teams scored 67%74% 52%
Clean sheets 26%11%
Failed to score 11%15%
Games2727
Eintracht Frankfurt1.FC KölnForecast
Scored per game 1.501.30
Conceded per game 1.501.80
Match goals 3.003.10 2.72
Over 1.5 80%90%
Over 2.5 60%70% 51%
Over 3.5 40%30%
Both teams scored 60%80% 52%
Clean sheets 40%10%
Failed to score 10%10%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Eintracht Frankfurt1.FC KölnLeague
Corners
Corners won4.204.56
Corners conceded4.365.72
Match total8.5610.289.55
Over 8.552% 13/2560% 15/25
Over 9.544% 11/2548% 12/25
Over 10.520% 5/2540% 10/25
Cards
Cards1.811.93
Opponent cards2.072.37
Match total3.884.303.90
Over 3.556% 15/2767% 18/27
Over 4.537% 10/2748% 13/27
Eintracht Frankfurt1.FC KölnLeague
Corners
Corners won4.005.67
Corners conceded5.444.56
Match total9.4410.239.55
Over 8.567% 6/956% 5/9
Over 9.556% 5/956% 5/9
Over 10.522% 2/944% 4/9
Cards
Cards1.802.40
Opponent cards2.102.90
Match total3.905.303.90
Over 3.550% 5/1080% 8/10
Over 4.530% 3/1070% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Florian Exner Germany · 26 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.58league 3.74
Red cards0.19league 0.18
Cards 5+46%league 38%
Fouls22.2league 20.5
Penalties0.42league 0.36
Home wins38%league 44%
Eintracht Frankfurt2 with this referee
Record2-0-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 0.5 Pens for · against0 · 0
  • W27 Sep 25A · Borussia Mönchengladbach6–42
  • W1 Dec 24A · 1. FC Heidenheim4–02
1.FC Köln

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

Eintracht Frankfurt27 games · scored 50 · conceded 51
4 8 0-15
10 7 16-30
9 6 31-45
10 7 46-60
6 7 61-75
11 16 76-90
1.FC Köln27 games · scored 38 · conceded 47
7 5 0-15
5 7 16-30
3 10 31-45
7 7 46-60
1 8 61-75
15 10 76-90
Eintracht Frankfurt10 games · scored 12 · conceded 14
1 0-15
3 3 16-30
1 1 31-45
2 3 46-60
2 2 61-75
4 4 76-90
1.FC Köln10 games · scored 13 · conceded 18
4 3 0-15
1 4 16-30
1 3 31-45
2 5 46-60
1 61-75
4 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures Bundesliga

View all fixtures →
SC Freiburg Bayern München 23 Werder Bremen RB Leipzig 12 Borussia Mönchengladbach 1. FC Heidenheim 22 1899 Hoffenheim FSV Mainz 05 12 Bayer Leverkusen VfL Wolfsburg 63 Hamburger SV FC Augsburg 11 VfB Stuttgart Borussia Dortmund 02 Union Berlin FC St. Pauli 11 Eintracht Frankfurt 1.FC Köln 22