Eintracht Frankfurt
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Eintracht Frankfurt
8th · 14 pts · 9 played
WLDWD
1–0Full time
FSV Mainz 05
17th · 5 pts · 9 played
LLLLD
Eintracht Frankfurt53.6%fair odds 1.87
Draw23.8%fair odds 4.21
FSV Mainz 0522.6%fair odds 4.42
Expected goals1.86 – 1.14total 3.00
Likeliest score1–111.1%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
FSV Mainz 05
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Eintracht Frankfurt ↓ · FSV Mainz 05 → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.1 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Eintracht Frankfurt goals, columns FSV Mainz 05 goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.1%8.99
- 2–19.8%10.19
- 1–08.7%11.48
- 2–08.6%11.61
- 3–16.1%16.44
- 1–26.0%16.61
- 2–25.6%17.87
- 0–05.5%18.03
- 3–05.3%18.74
- 0–15.1%19.52
Winning margin
14.4%
Eintracht Frankfurt by 3+
fair 6.95
16.6%
Eintracht Frankfurt by 2
fair 6.04
22.7%
Eintracht Frankfurt by 1
fair 4.41
23.8%
Draw
fair 4.21
13.7%
FSV Mainz 05 by 1
fair 7.31
6.2%
FSV Mainz 05 by 2
fair 16.06
2.7%
FSV Mainz 05 by 3+
fair 36.98
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
14%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
18%5+
Eintracht Frankfurt goals
16%0
29%1
27%2
17%3
12%4+
FSV Mainz 05 goals
32%0
36%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt win | 53.6% | 52.3% | +1.3 pp |
| Draw | 23.8% | 25.1% | -1.3 pp |
| FSV Mainz 05 win | 22.6% | 22.6% | +0.0 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 57.6% | 52.4% | +5.3 pp |
| Both teams score | 58.0% | 54.0% | +3.9 pp |
| Expected goals Eintracht Frankfurt | 1.86 | 1.72 | +0.14 |
| Expected goals FSV Mainz 05 | 1.14 | 1.05 | +0.09 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Eintracht Frankfurt win53.6%1.87
- Draw23.8%4.21
- FSV Mainz 05 win22.6%4.42
- Double chance Eintracht Frankfurt or draw77.4%1.29
- Double chance Eintracht Frankfurt or FSV Mainz 0576.2%1.31
- Double chance FSV Mainz 05 or draw46.4%2.16
- Draw no bet Eintracht Frankfurt70.3%1.42
- Draw no bet FSV Mainz 0529.7%3.37
Goals
- Over 0.594.5%1.06
- Over 1.580.6%1.24
- Over 2.557.6%1.73
- Over 3.535.2%2.84
- Over 4.518.4%5.42
- Under 1.519.4%5.16
- Under 2.542.4%2.36
- Under 3.564.8%1.54
Both teams to score
- Yes58.0%1.72
- No42.0%2.38
- Yes and over 2.546.8%2.13
- Eintracht Frankfurt win and yes27.2%3.68
- Draw and yes18.2%5.49
- FSV Mainz 05 win and yes12.6%7.95
Team goals
- Eintracht Frankfurt over 0.584.4%1.18
- Eintracht Frankfurt over 1.555.4%1.80
- Eintracht Frankfurt over 2.528.5%3.51
- FSV Mainz 05 over 0.568.0%1.47
- FSV Mainz 05 over 1.531.6%3.17
- FSV Mainz 05 over 2.510.8%9.28
- Eintracht Frankfurt clean sheet32.0%3.13
- FSV Mainz 05 clean sheet15.6%6.42
- Eintracht Frankfurt win to nil26.4%3.78
- FSV Mainz 05 win to nil10.0%9.96
Handicap
- Eintracht Frankfurt −1.530.9%3.23
- Eintracht Frankfurt −2.514.4%6.95
- FSV Mainz 05 +1.569.1%1.45
- FSV Mainz 05 +2.585.6%1.17
- FSV Mainz 05 −1.58.9%11.20
- Eintracht Frankfurt +1.591.1%1.10
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored89
Favourite won57.3%
Avg chance given to result44.1%
1X2 Brier0.538
Over 2.5 called right64.0%
BTTS called right58.4%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 14 | 38.1% | 42.9% |
| 40–50% | 27 | 45.1% | 40.7% |
| 50–60% | 19 | 54.4% | 57.9% |
| 60–70% | 19 | 65.5% | 84.2% |
| 70–80% | 9 | 74.2% | 66.7% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 87.0% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 71 of 89 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5121 | 0.5248 |
| Avg chance given to result | 45.4% | 44.2% |
| Favourite won | 60.6% | 62.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 71 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 89 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.