Eintracht Frankfurt vs FSV Mainz 05 – 9 Nov 2025

Bundesliga Gameweek 10 Sun, Nov 9 · 18:30 Deutsche Bank Park, Frankfurt am Main

Eintracht Frankfurt 8th · 14 pts · 9 played WLDWD

1–0Full time

FSV Mainz 05 17th · 5 pts · 9 played LLLLD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Eintracht Frankfurt were slight favourites.

Eintracht Frankfurt were the stronger side on L90 Strength (67 vs 52). Eintracht Frankfurt had 8.2 days of rest, FSV Mainz 05 8.2 and had to travel 32 km.

Away travel32 kmRest days8.2 · 8.2Matches / 14d1 · 1

Eintracht Frankfurt54%

Draw24%

FSV Mainz 0523%

Expected goals 1.86 – 1.14

Eintracht Frankfurt53%

Draw25%

FSV Mainz 0522%

Expected goals 1.72 – 1.04

Eintracht Frankfurt54%

Draw24%

FSV Mainz 0522%

Expected goals 1.86 – 1.13

Eintracht Frankfurt46%

Draw25%

FSV Mainz 0529%

Expected goals 1.66 – 1.28

Eintracht Frankfurt52%

Draw25%

FSV Mainz 0523%

Expected goals 1.72 – 1.05

Over 2.5 58% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Frankfurt am Main)

No weather data yet

Referee · GermanyMatthias Jollenbeck

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.32
Matches 57

Team strength

Eintracht Frankfurt

FSV Mainz 05

67 L90 StrengthIn forecast 52

48 Current StrengthIn forecast 55

54 AttackIn forecast 68

37 DefenceIn forecast 56

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Eintracht Frankfurt

Attack—

Defense risk—

FSV Mainz 05

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Eintracht Frankfurt

FSV Mainz 05

2.44 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.11

2.11 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.89

1.52 xGVia Att/Def 1.25

1.15 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.58

+0.92 Goals minus xGContext -0.14

89% Scored inContext 56%

11% Clean sheetsContext 0%

13.22 ShotsContext 12.33

4.78 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.11

36% On target shareContext 25%

8.67 Shots in the boxContext 9.22

64% Box shareContext 75%

19% ConversionContext 9%

1.67 OffsidesContext 3.63

11.78 Shots allowedContext 14.22

4.78 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.89

1.89 BlocksContext 3.75

2.88 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.89

58% Save rateContext 59%

56% PossessionIn forecast 50%

511 PassesContext 394

429 Accurate passesContext 302

84% Pass accuracyContext 77%

6.86 Team ratingContext 6.72

9.44 FoulsContext 12.22

10.22 Fouls sufferedContext 12.78

1.89 Yellow cardsContext 2.33

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.22

This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games

2.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

2.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

1.13 xGVia Att/Def 1.43

1.71 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.43

+0.97 Goals minus xGContext -0.13

80% Scored inContext 70%

20% Clean sheetsContext 20%

10.70 ShotsContext 11.90

4.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.10

38% On target shareContext 26%

6.90 Shots in the boxContext 8.60

64% Box shareContext 73%

20% ConversionContext 11%

1.50 OffsidesContext 3.00

12.40 Shots allowedContext 12.70

5.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.11

2.50 BlocksContext 3.63

3.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.22

60% Save rateContext 63%

51% PossessionIn forecast 50%

492 PassesContext 403

411 Accurate passesContext 308

84% Pass accuracyContext 77%

6.75 Team ratingContext 6.72

8.60 FoulsContext 12.90

9.80 Fouls sufferedContext 12.50

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Eintracht Frankfurt

Rest8.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km384 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

FSV Mainz 05

Rest8.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel32 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Eintracht Frankfurt	FSV Mainz 05
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8.2Bundesliga 2025-2026, 1 Nov	8.2Bundesliga 2025-2026, 1 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	32 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	384 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	13	12

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Eintracht Frankfurt Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

23M. Zetterer(G)

21N. Brown 3A. Theate 4R. Koch 13R. Kristensen

15E. Skhiri 18M. Dahoud

7A. Knauff 8F. Chaïbi 20R. Doan

9J. Burkardt

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

FSV Mainz 05 Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

27R. Zentner(G)

31D. Kohr 15L. Maloney 21D. da Costa

30S. Widmer 6K. Sano 10N. Amiri 2P. Mwene

17B. Hollerbach 8P. Nebel

7J. Lee

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Eintracht Frankfurt Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

FSV Mainz 05 Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Eintracht Frankfurt-0.3 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
FSV Mainz 05+0.3 pp

Home / Away this season

Eintracht Frankfurt · Home 1.50points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 2-0-2
Scored: 2.25
Conceded: 2.00

FSV Mainz 05 · Away 1.00points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 1-1-2
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

Opponent	Eintracht Frankfurt	FSV Mainz 05
Bayer Leverkusen	L 1–3 A	L 3–4 H
Werder Bremen	W 4–1 H	D 1–1 H
Points	3 of 6 · 1.50 per game	1 of 6 · 0.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

3 Eintracht Frankfurt wins4 draws1 FSV Mainz 05 wins

Goals per game1.38 – 1.00 Over 2.538% Both scored63% Clean sheets38% · 0%

4 May 2025FSV Mainz 051–1Eintracht Frankfurt
21 Dec 2024Eintracht Frankfurt1–3FSV Mainz 05
26 Jan 2024Eintracht Frankfurt1–0FSV Mainz 05
27 Aug 2023FSV Mainz 051–1Eintracht Frankfurt
13 May 2023Eintracht Frankfurt3–0FSV Mainz 05
13 Nov 2022FSV Mainz 051–1Eintracht Frankfurt

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Eintracht Frankfurt	FSV Mainz 05	Forecast
Scored per game	2.44	1.11
Conceded per game	2.11	1.89
Match goals	4.56	3.00	3.00
Over 1.5	100%	78%
Over 2.5	78%	44%	58%
Over 3.5	67%	33%
Both teams scored	78%	56%	58%
Clean sheets	11%	0%
Failed to score	11%	44%
Games	9	9

	Eintracht Frankfurt	FSV Mainz 05	Forecast
Scored per game	2.44	1.11
Conceded per game	2.11	1.89
Match goals	4.56	3.00	3.00
Over 1.5	100%	78%
Over 2.5	78%	44%	58%
Over 3.5	67%	33%
Both teams scored	78%	56%	58%
Clean sheets	11%	0%
Failed to score	11%	44%
Games	9	9

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Eintracht Frankfurt	FSV Mainz 05	League
Corners
Corners won	4.50	5.25
Corners conceded	2.88	3.63
Match total	7.38	8.88	9.76
Over 8.5	50% 4/8	50% 4/8
Over 9.5	38% 3/8	50% 4/8
Over 10.5	13% 1/8	25% 2/8
Cards
Cards	1.89	2.67
Opponent cards	2.11	2.11
Match total	4.00	4.78	4.31
Over 3.5	44% 4/9	78% 7/9
Over 4.5	33% 3/9	44% 4/9

	Eintracht Frankfurt	FSV Mainz 05	League
Corners
Corners won	3.40	4.78
Corners conceded	3.60	3.44
Match total	7.00	8.22	9.76
Over 8.5	30% 3/10	44% 4/9
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	33% 3/9
Over 10.5	10% 1/10	22% 2/9
Cards
Cards	1.50	2.20
Opponent cards	1.40	2.10
Match total	2.90	4.30	4.31
Over 3.5	20% 2/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Matthias Jollenbeck Germany · 57 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.79league 4.12

Red cards0.18league 0.20

Cards 5+39%league 43%

Fouls23.3league 22.1

Penalties0.32league 0.37

Home wins53%league 45%

Eintracht Frankfurt3 with this referee

Record2-1-0 Cards · opp.0.7 · 3.3 Pens for · against0 · 0

W26 Apr 25H · RB Leipzig4–01
W21 Oct 23A · 1899 Hoffenheim3–10
D12 Sep 21H · VfB Stuttgart1–11

FSV Mainz 055 with this referee

Record2-0-3 Cards · opp.2.6 · 2.8 Pens for · against2 · 2

W16 Mar 24H · VfL Bochum2–04
L5 May 23H · FC Schalke 042–34
W21 Oct 22H · 1.FC Köln5–01
L6 Apr 22A · FC Augsburg1–22
L26 Nov 21A · VfB Stuttgart1–22

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.