Eintracht Frankfurt
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Eintracht Frankfurt were slight favourites.
Eintracht Frankfurt were the stronger side on L90 Strength (68 vs 55). Eintracht Frankfurt had ? days of rest, Werder Bremen ? and had to travel 329 km.
Away travel329 kmMatches / 14d0 · 0
Eintracht Frankfurt54%
Draw23%
Werder Bremen22%
Eintracht Frankfurt52%
Draw25%
Werder Bremen23%
Eintracht Frankfurt53%
Draw24%
Werder Bremen23%
Eintracht Frankfurt46%
Draw25%
Werder Bremen29%
Eintracht Frankfurt53%
Draw25%
Werder Bremen22%
Over 2.5 59%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Frankfurt am Main)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyHarm Osmers
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 82
Team strength
Eintracht Frankfurt
Werder Bremen
68
L90 StrengthIn forecast
55
48
Current StrengthIn forecast
43
54
AttackIn forecast
56
37
DefenceIn forecast
45
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Form indexContext
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In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisWerder Bremen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Eintracht FrankfurtWerder Bremen
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Goals scoredVia Att/Def
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Goals concededVia Att/Def
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xGVia Att/Def
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xG allowedVia Att/Def
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Goals minus xGContext
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Scored inContext
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Clean sheetsContext
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ShotsContext
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Shots on targetVia Att/Def
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On target shareContext
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Shots in the boxContext
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Box shareContext
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ConversionContext
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OffsidesContext
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Shots allowedContext
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On target allowedVia Att/Def
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BlocksContext
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Goalkeeper savesContext
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Save rateContext
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PossessionIn forecast
—
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PassesContext
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Accurate passesContext
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Pass accuracyContext
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Team ratingContext
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FoulsContext
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Fouls sufferedContext
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Yellow cardsContext
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Red cardsContext
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1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.68
xGVia Att/Def
1.70
1.01
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.17
-0.18
Goals minus xGContext
+0.10
70%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
11.40
ShotsContext
14.30
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.90
40%
On target shareContext
34%
8.22
Shots in the boxContext
10.90
68%
Box shareContext
76%
13%
ConversionContext
13%
2.25
OffsidesContext
2.78
9.90
Shots allowedContext
13.40
2.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.75
2.00
BlocksContext
4.20
2.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.88
85%
Save rateContext
82%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
449
PassesContext
429
369
Accurate passesContext
342
82%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.10
Team ratingContext
7.17
10.60
FoulsContext
8.90
9.60
Fouls sufferedContext
12.70
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Eintracht Frankfurt
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Werder Bremen
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel329 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Eintracht Frankfurt |
Werder Bremen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | — | — |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 329 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 0 | 0 / 0 / 0 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Eintracht Frankfurt
Confirmed XI
23M. Zetterer(G)
3A. Theate
4R. Koch
34P. Collins
13R. Kristensen
8F. Chaïbi
16H. Larsson
19J. Bahoya
42C. Uzun
20R. Doan
9J. Burkardt
Werder Bremen
Confirmed XI
30M. Backhaus(G)
27F. Agu
32M. Friedl
4N. Stark
22J. Malatini
14S. Lynen
10L. Bittencourt
7S. Mbangula
20R. Schmid
11J. Njinmah
17M. Grüll
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Eintracht Frankfurt
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Werder Bremen
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.08 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Eintracht Frankfurt+1.1 pp
- Draw-0.6 pp
- Werder Bremen-0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Eintracht Frankfurt · Home
No home games yet this season.
Werder Bremen · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
3 Eintracht Frankfurt wins2 draws1 Werder Bremen wins
Goals per game1.67 – 1.33
Over 2.533%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets33% · 17%
- 5 Apr 2025Werder Bremen2–0Eintracht Frankfurt
- 23 Nov 2024Eintracht Frankfurt1–0Werder Bremen
- 5 Apr 2024Eintracht Frankfurt1–1Werder Bremen
- 12 Nov 2023Werder Bremen2–2Eintracht Frankfurt
- 18 Feb 2023Eintracht Frankfurt2–0Werder Bremen
- 28 Aug 2022Werder Bremen3–4Eintracht Frankfurt
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Eintracht Frankfurt | Werder Bremen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | 3.06 |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | 59% |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | Werder Bremen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | 3.06 |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | 59% |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Eintracht Frankfurt | Werder Bremen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | — | — | |
| Corners conceded | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 10.00 |
| Over 8.5 | — | — | |
| Over 9.5 | — | — | |
| Over 10.5 | — | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | — | — | |
| Opponent cards | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 5.00 |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Over 4.5 | — | — | |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | Werder Bremen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.60 | 4.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.20 | 4.80 | |
| Match total | 10.80 | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 70% 7/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Harm Osmers Germany · 82 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.88league 5.00
Red cards0.18league 0.00
Cards 5+38%league 100%
Fouls22.3league 26.0
Penalties0.29league 0.00
Home wins49%league 100%
Eintracht Frankfurt9 with this referee
Record4-3-2
Cards · opp.2.6 · 2.2
Pens for · against2 · 1
Reds1
- W11 Jan 25A · FC St. Pauli1–03
- D27 Oct 24A · Union Berlin1–13
- W14 Sep 24A · VfL Wolfsburg2–12
- L3 Dec 23A · FC Augsburg1–21
- W20 Aug 23H · SV Darmstadt 981–02
Werder Bremen2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 1
- D30 Nov 24H · VfB Stuttgart2–21
- L14 Apr 24A · Bayer Leverkusen0–51
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Eintracht FrankfurtWerder BremenEintracht Frankfurt10 games · scored 15 · conceded 8
3
1
0-15
2
4
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
7
61-75
1
76-90
Werder Bremen10 games · scored 18 · conceded 8
4
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
4
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
61-75
6
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
