Elche
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Atletico Madrid were slight favourites.
Atletico Madrid were the stronger side on L90 Strength (80 vs 39). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Elche. Elche had 11.1 days of rest, Atletico Madrid 10.9 and had to travel 352 km.
Away travel352 kmRest days11.1 · 10.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Elche27%
Draw25%
Atletico Madrid48%
Elche20%
Draw24%
Atletico Madrid56%
Elche25%
Draw25%
Atletico Madrid50%
Elche21%
Draw23%
Atletico Madrid56%
Elche27%
Draw25%
Atletico Madrid49%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Elche)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainGuillermo Cuadra Fernandez
- Cards per match 4.9
- Penalties per match 0.38
- Matches 42
Team strength
Elche
Atletico Madrid
39
L90 StrengthIn forecast
80
44
Current StrengthIn forecast
80
39
AttackIn forecast
82
51
DefenceIn forecast
87
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAtletico Madrid
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ElcheAtletico Madrid
1.26
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.65
1.52
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.03
1.08
xGVia Att/Def
1.45
1.71
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.13
+0.18
Goals minus xGContext
+0.20
84%
Scored inContext
87%
23%
Clean sheetsContext
39%
10.55
ShotsContext
13.10
3.93
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.23
36%
On target shareContext
40%
7.45
Shots in the boxContext
9.06
68%
Box shareContext
69%
12%
ConversionContext
13%
2.29
OffsidesContext
2.56
14.61
Shots allowedContext
10.77
4.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.57
4.00
BlocksContext
2.76
3.37
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
68%
Save rateContext
71%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
496
PassesContext
511
425
Accurate passesContext
439
86%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.90
12.71
FoulsContext
10.97
14.00
Fouls sufferedContext
9.39
2.13
Yellow cardsContext
2.23
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.03
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.11
xGVia Att/Def
1.32
2.14
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.59
-0.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.58
80%
Scored inContext
100%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
10.70
ShotsContext
13.10
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
38%
On target shareContext
35%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.30
73%
Box shareContext
63%
9%
ConversionContext
15%
2.29
OffsidesContext
2.13
15.70
Shots allowedContext
13.60
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.30
4.10
BlocksContext
3.00
3.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.11
65%
Save rateContext
75%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
458
PassesContext
456
384
Accurate passesContext
384
84%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.88
13.10
FoulsContext
11.60
14.70
Fouls sufferedContext
9.20
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Elche
Rest11.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Atletico Madrid
Rest10.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel352 km781 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Elche |
Atletico Madrid |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 11.1La Liga 2025-2026, 11 Apr | 10.9La Liga 2025-2026, 11 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 352 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 781 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.9 | 3.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Elche
Confirmed XI
1M. Dituro(G)
21L. Pétrot
22D. Affengruber
42Buba Sangaré
11Germán Valera
16Martim Neto
14Aleix Febas
12Gonzalo Villar
15Tete Morente
9André Silva
10Rafa Mir
Atletico Madrid
Confirmed XI
13J. Oblak(G)
34Julio Díaz
15C. Lenglet
24R. Le Normand
32Javier Boñar
21O. Vargas
4Rodrigo Mendoza
5J. Cardoso
23N. González
11T. Almada
10Álex Baena
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Elche
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Atletico Madrid
Scores -0.08 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Elche+1.3 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Atletico Madrid-1.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Elche · Home
1.75points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-7-2
- Scored
- 1.56
- Conceded
- 1.00
Atletico Madrid · Away
1.13points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-5-6
- Scored
- 1.07
- Conceded
- 1.20
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Elche | Atletico Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Valencia | W 1–0 HD 1–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| Rayo Vallecano | L 0–1 AW 4–0 H | L 0–3 AW 3–2 H |
| Mallorca | W 2–1 HL 1–3 A | W 3–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Real Madrid | L 1–4 AD 2–2 H | L 2–3 AW 5–2 H |
| Villarreal | L 1–2 AL 1–3 H | W 2–0 H |
| Espanyol | D 2–2 HL 0–1 A | W 4–2 HL 1–2 A |
| Athletic Club | L 1–2 AD 0–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Osasuna | D 0–0 HD 1–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Real Sociedad | L 1–3 AD 1–1 H | W 3–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Barcelona | L 1–3 HL 1–3 A | L 1–2 HL 1–3 A |
| Levante | L 2–3 AW 2–0 H | D 0–0 AW 3–1 H |
| Sevilla | D 2–2 HD 2–2 A | L 1–2 AW 3–0 H |
| Girona | W 3–0 H | W 3–0 A |
| Getafe | L 0–1 A | W 1–0 HW 1–0 A |
| Alaves | L 1–3 A | W 1–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Celta Vigo | W 2–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Oviedo | W 1–0 H | W 1–0 AW 2–0 H |
| Real Betis | D 1–1 H | L 0–1 HW 2–0 A |
| Points | 31 of 90 · 1.03 per game | 56 of 90 · 1.87 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
1 Elche wins1 draws5 Atletico Madrid wins
Goals per game0.43 – 1.43
Over 2.514%
Both scored29%
Clean sheets14% · 57%
- 23 Aug 2025Atletico Madrid1–1Elche
- 14 May 2023Elche1–0Atletico Madrid
- 29 Dec 2022Atletico Madrid2–0Elche
- 11 May 2022Elche0–2Atletico Madrid
- 22 Aug 2021Atletico Madrid1–0Elche
- 1 May 2021Elche0–1Atletico Madrid
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Elche | Atletico Madrid | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.26 | 1.65 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.52 | 1.03 | |
| Match goals | 2.77 | 2.68 | 2.89 |
| Over 1.5 | 77% | 74% | |
| Over 2.5 | 58% | 48% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 42% | 23% | |
| Both teams scored | 68% | 52% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 23% | 39% | |
| Failed to score | 16% | 13% | |
| Games | 31 | 31 |
| Elche | Atletico Madrid | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.80 | 2.89 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 60% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Elche | Atletico Madrid | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.55 | 6.39 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.65 | 3.94 | |
| Match total | 8.20 | 10.33 | 9.59 |
| Over 8.5 | 45% 14/31 | 77% 24/31 | |
| Over 9.5 | 35% 11/31 | 58% 18/31 | |
| Over 10.5 | 23% 7/31 | 48% 15/31 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.26 | 2.32 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.16 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 4.42 | 4.42 | 4.54 |
| Over 3.5 | 77% 24/31 | 65% 20/31 | |
| Over 4.5 | 48% 15/31 | 42% 13/31 | |
| Elche | Atletico Madrid | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.90 | 4.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.70 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 8.60 | 9.20 | 9.59 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 2.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.90 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 5.70 | 4.54 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Guillermo Cuadra Fernandez Spain · 42 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.55league 4.27
Red cards0.31league 0.28
Cards 5+60%league 47%
Fouls25.9league 24.5
Penalties0.38league 0.36
Home wins45%league 49%
Elche1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W28 Sep 25H · Celta Vigo2–13
Atletico Madrid3 with this referee
Record3-0-0
Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.3
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W18 Jan 26H · Alaves1–01
- W23 Nov 25A · Getafe1–04
- W21 Oct 23A · Celta Vigo3–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Elche31 games · scored 39 · conceded 47
5
9
0-15
4
4
16-30
4
6
31-45
8
5
46-60
9
7
61-75
9
16
76-90
Atletico Madrid31 games · scored 51 · conceded 32
11
5
0-15
6
4
16-30
7
6
31-45
6
3
46-60
9
6
61-75
12
8
76-90
Elche10 games · scored 10 · conceded 18
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
6
31-45
2
46-60
4
4
61-75
3
3
76-90
Atletico Madrid10 games · scored 19 · conceded 16
5
3
0-15
1
3
16-30
5
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
4
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
