Elche vs Celta Vigo – 11 Oct 2026

La Liga Gameweek 8 Sun, Oct 11 · 13:00 Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Elche

Elche 18th · 5 pts · 7 played LLDLW

0–0Full time

Celta Vigo 15th · 7 pts · 7 played LDDDW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Elche were slight favourites.

Celta Vigo were the stronger side on L90 Strength (54 vs 43). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Elche. Elche were without Buba Sangaré. Celta Vigo were without S. Cáceres. Elche had 22.7 days of rest, Celta Vigo 21.8 and had to travel 811 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel811 kmRest days22.7 · 21.8Matches / 14d0 · 0

Elche43%

Draw25%

Celta Vigo32%

Expected goals 1.56 – 1.31

Elche38%

Draw26%

Celta Vigo36%

Expected goals 1.35 – 1.32

Elche42%

Draw25%

Celta Vigo33%

Expected goals 1.50 – 1.29

Elche36%

Draw25%

Celta Vigo39%

Expected goals 1.39 – 1.47

Elche43%

Draw25%

Celta Vigo32%

Expected goals 1.54 – 1.30

Over 2.5 55% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1

Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Elche)

25°COvercast

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 14 km/h
Humidity 45%

Referee · SpainJavier Alberola Rojas

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.35
Matches 49

Team strength

Elche

Celta Vigo

43 L90 StrengthIn forecast 54

44 Current StrengthIn forecast 54

39 AttackIn forecast 36

51 DefenceIn forecast 61

35 Form indexContext 40

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Elche

Attack—

Defense risk—

Celta Vigo

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Elche

Celta Vigo

1.57 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.14

2.43 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.86

1.24 xGVia Att/Def 1.01

2.01 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.26

+0.33 Goals minus xGContext +0.13

86% Scored inContext 57%

0% Clean sheetsContext 43%

11.29 ShotsContext 10.29

5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.71

44% On target shareContext 36%

7.14 Shots in the boxContext 5.29

61% Box shareContext 49%

14% ConversionContext 11%

1.83 OffsidesContext 3.00

15.29 Shots allowedContext 12.43

4.71 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

3.17 BlocksContext 3.00

2.57 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

55% Save rateContext 75%

50% PossessionIn forecast 53%

467 PassesContext 539

396 Accurate passesContext 469

85% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.62 Team ratingContext 6.89

13.57 FoulsContext 10.71

12.43 Fouls sufferedContext 13.43

2.43 Yellow cardsContext 1.57

0.14 Red cardsContext 0.14

This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.80

0.98 xGVia Att/Def 0.99

1.63 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.23

+0.42 Goals minus xGContext +0.01

90% Scored inContext 60%

10% Clean sheetsContext 40%

10.10 ShotsContext 10.50

4.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.60

41% On target shareContext 34%

6.56 Shots in the boxContext 5.70

58% Box shareContext 51%

14% ConversionContext 10%

2.13 OffsidesContext 3.00

13.60 Shots allowedContext 13.10

5.22 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.30

2.67 BlocksContext 2.80

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.40

57% Save rateContext 79%

51% PossessionIn forecast 52%

452 PassesContext 522

379 Accurate passesContext 456

84% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.67 Team ratingContext 6.88

14.40 FoulsContext 11.00

13.50 Fouls sufferedContext 13.10

2.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Elche LLDLW

Rest22.7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 35 · 4 pts vs 5.8 for an average club · -0.8 vs expected

W18 SepA · Espanyol3–11.1 xPts
L15 SepH · Real Madrid2–30.5 xPts
D12 SepA · Athletic Club1–10.8 xPts
L7 SepH · Real Sociedad2–31.4 xPts
L28 AugA · Racing Santander2–31.0 xPts

Celta Vigo DDDLW

Rest21.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel811 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load12%Low

Form 40 · 6 pts vs 7.1 for an average club · -0.5 vs expected

W19 SepH · Racing Santander5–01.5 xPts
L16 SepA · Omonia Nicosia0–11.4 xPts
D13 SepH · Malaga1–11.5 xPts
D7 SepA · Getafe1–11.1 xPts
D3 SepA · Real Sociedad0–01.0 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Elche	Celta Vigo
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	22.7La Liga 2026-2027, 18 Sep	21.8La Liga 2026-2027, 19 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	811 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 2	0 / 0 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	6.1	4.3

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Elche Confirmed XI

5-3-2

1M. Dituro(G)

11Germán Valera 3R. Revivo 23Víctor Chust 47J. Morcillo 22Rubén Sánchez

18T. Lemar 8Marc Aguado 12Gonzalo Villar

14Fer Niño 20Tete Morente

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Celta Vigo Confirmed XI

3-4-3

13I. Radu(G)

3Marcos Alonso 18Yoel Lago 15Alvaro Núñez

22Javi Galán 14Aleix Febas 6I. Moriba 17Javi Rueda

23Hugo Álvarez 11Pablo Durán 9Ferran Jutglà

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Elche Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals

Attack line −1.3% · Defence line −11.3% of weighted minutes

DEF Buba Sangaré Starter 6.37 Def −10.6%
MID F. Redondo Rotation 6.32 Att −0.8% Def −0.7%
ATT Yago Santiago Depth 6.54 Att −0.5%

Celta Vigo Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.05 goals

Attack line −12.3% · Defence line −20.4% of weighted minutes

DEF S. Cáceres Core 7.32 Def −13.3%
DEF C. Starfelt Rotation 6.90 Def −4.7%
MID Miguel Román Rotation 6.89 Att −6.4% Def −2.3%
ATT Jones El-Abdellaoui Rotation 6.57 Att −5.6%
MID Andrés Antañón Depth 6.20 Att −0.2% Def −0.1%

Total impact vs full squads

Elche+1.0 pp
Draw-0.4 pp
Celta Vigo-0.6 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Elche · Home 0.00points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 0-0-3
Scored: 1.33
Conceded: 3.67

Celta Vigo · Away 1.00points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 0-3-0
Scored: 0.33
Conceded: 0.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

Opponent	Elche	Celta Vigo
Athletic Club	D 1–1 A	L 0–2 H
Real Sociedad	L 2–3 H	D 0–0 A
Racing Santander	L 2–3 A	W 5–0 H
Points	1 of 9 · 0.33 per game	4 of 9 · 1.33 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

2 Elche wins1 draws5 Celta Vigo wins

Goals per game0.75 – 1.38 Over 2.538% Both scored50% Clean sheets13% · 38%

3 May 2026Celta Vigo3–1Elche
28 Sep 2025Elche2–1Celta Vigo
26 Apr 2023Celta Vigo1–0Elche
6 Jan 2023Elche0–1Celta Vigo
15 May 2022Celta Vigo1–0Elche
3 Oct 2021Elche1–0Celta Vigo

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Elche	Celta Vigo	Forecast
Scored per game	1.57	1.14
Conceded per game	2.43	0.86
Match goals	4.00	2.00	2.86
Over 1.5	100%	71%
Over 2.5	71%	29%	55%
Over 3.5	71%	14%
Both teams scored	86%	43%	58%
Clean sheets	0%	43%
Failed to score	14%	43%
Games	7	7

	Elche	Celta Vigo	Forecast
Scored per game	1.40	1.00
Conceded per game	2.00	0.80
Match goals	3.40	1.80	2.86
Over 1.5	90%	60%
Over 2.5	60%	20%	55%
Over 3.5	50%	10%
Both teams scored	80%	40%	58%
Clean sheets	10%	40%
Failed to score	10%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Elche	Celta Vigo	League
Corners
Corners won	4.43	3.29
Corners conceded	4.29	4.71
Match total	8.72	8.00	9.79
Over 8.5	29% 2/7	29% 2/7
Over 9.5	29% 2/7	29% 2/7
Over 10.5	29% 2/7	29% 2/7
Cards
Cards	2.57	1.71
Opponent cards	1.86	2.57
Match total	4.43	4.28	4.57
Over 3.5	71% 5/7	57% 4/7
Over 4.5	57% 4/7	57% 4/7

	Elche	Celta Vigo	League
Corners
Corners won	3.67	4.00
Corners conceded	4.33	4.33
Match total	8.00	8.33	9.79
Over 8.5	22% 2/9	33% 3/9
Over 9.5	22% 2/9	33% 3/9
Over 10.5	22% 2/9	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	2.90	1.60
Opponent cards	2.10	2.10
Match total	5.00	3.70	4.57
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Javier Alberola Rojas Spain · 49 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.63league 4.27

Red cards0.20league 0.27

Cards 5+31%league 53%

Fouls24.9league 24.5

Penalties0.35league 0.36

Home wins53%league 45%

Elche2 with this referee

Record1-1-0 Cards · opp.2.5 · 3.5 Pens for · against0 · 1

W21 Mar 26H · Mallorca2–12
D12 Sep 25A · Sevilla2–23

Celta Vigo6 with this referee

Record3-0-3 Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.5 Pens for · against1 · 4

L25 Jan 26A · Real Sociedad1–31
L9 Nov 25H · Barcelona2–41
W23 Apr 25H · Villarreal3–02
W19 May 24A · Granada CF2–11
W4 Feb 24A · Osasuna3–00

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.