Elche vs Valencia – 11 Apr 2026

La Liga Gameweek 31 Sat, Apr 11 · 15:15 Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Elche

Elche 18th · 29 pts · 30 played DLLWL

1–0Full time

Valencia 14th · 35 pts · 30 played WWLWL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Valencia were the stronger side on L90 Strength (53 vs 37). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Valencia. Elche had 7.8 days of rest, Valencia 6 and had to travel 138 km.

Away travel138 kmRest days7.8 · 6Matches / 14d1 · 1

Elche34%

Draw28%

Valencia38%

Expected goals 1.23 – 1.33

Elche35%

Draw27%

Valencia38%

Expected goals 1.30 – 1.37

Elche34%

Draw28%

Valencia38%

Expected goals 1.21 – 1.30

Elche27%

Draw27%

Valencia46%

Expected goals 1.10 – 1.50

Elche34%

Draw27%

Valencia39%

Expected goals 1.28 – 1.41

Over 2.5 47% Both score 53% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Elche)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainFrancisco Hernandez Maeso

Cards per match 4.1
Penalties per match 0.39
Matches 33

Team strength

Elche

Valencia

37 L90 StrengthIn forecast 53

44 Current StrengthIn forecast 51

39 AttackIn forecast 39

51 DefenceIn forecast 52

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Elche

Attack—

Defense risk—

Valencia

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Elche

Valencia

1.27 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.13

1.57 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.10 xGVia Att/Def 1.20

1.69 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.16

+0.17 Goals minus xGContext -0.07

83% Scored inContext 77%

20% Clean sheetsContext 27%

10.67 ShotsContext 11.07

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.07

36% On target shareContext 27%

7.50 Shots in the boxContext 7.25

67% Box shareContext 63%

12% ConversionContext 10%

2.20 OffsidesContext 2.05

14.37 Shots allowedContext 11.57

4.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.28

3.90 BlocksContext 2.89

3.24 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.08

67% Save rateContext 67%

58% PossessionIn forecast 49%

498 PassesContext 412

428 Accurate passesContext 338

86% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.87 Team ratingContext 6.74

12.67 FoulsContext 11.73

13.87 Fouls sufferedContext 11.70

2.17 Yellow cardsContext 1.83

0.07 Red cardsContext 0.03

This league season, per match · 30 and 30 games

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

2.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

1.12 xGVia Att/Def 1.39

2.18 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.05

-0.02 Goals minus xGContext +0.11

80% Scored inContext 80%

10% Clean sheetsContext 30%

10.60 ShotsContext 11.10

4.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.44

40% On target shareContext 28%

7.70 Shots in the boxContext 7.33

69% Box shareContext 64%

10% ConversionContext 14%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.17

16.10 Shots allowedContext 10.90

5.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

4.70 BlocksContext 2.50

3.22 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

58% Save rateContext 71%

56% PossessionIn forecast 50%

463 PassesContext 414

387 Accurate passesContext 339

84% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.75 Team ratingContext 6.75

12.90 FoulsContext 11.40

14.20 Fouls sufferedContext 12.80

2.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Elche

Rest7.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km704 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Valencia

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel138 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Elche	Valencia
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.8La Liga 2025-2026, 3 Apr	6La Liga 2025-2026, 5 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	138 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	704 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	11.1	10.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Elche Confirmed XI

3-4-1-2

1M. Dituro(G)

21L. Pétrot 22D. Affengruber 42Buba Sangaré

11Germán Valera 12Gonzalo Villar 14Aleix Febas 15Tete Morente

16Martim Neto

9André Silva 10Rafa Mir

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Valencia Confirmed XI

4-4-2

1S. Dimitrievski(G)

14José Gayà 24E. Cömert 5César Tárrega 12Thierry Correia

17L. Ramazani 23F. Ugrinic 2G. Rodríguez 11Luis Rioja

6U. Sadiq 15L. Beltrán

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Elche Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Valencia Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Elche-0.2 pp
Draw-0.4 pp
Valencia+0.6 pp

Home / Away this season

Elche · Home 1.67points per game · 15 home games

W-D-L: 6-7-2
Scored: 1.60
Conceded: 1.07

Valencia · Away 0.80points per game · 15 away games

W-D-L: 3-3-9
Scored: 0.87
Conceded: 1.80

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Elche	Valencia
Rayo Vallecano	L 0–1 AW 4–0 H	D 1–1 A
Mallorca	W 2–1 HL 1–3 A	D 1–1 H
Real Madrid	L 1–4 AD 2–2 H	L 0–2 HL 0–4 A
Villarreal	L 1–2 AL 1–3 H	L 1–2 AL 0–2 H
Espanyol	D 2–2 HL 0–1 A	W 3–2 HD 2–2 A
Athletic Club	L 1–2 AD 0–0 H	W 2–0 H
Osasuna	D 0–0 HD 1–1 A	W 1–0 HL 0–1 A
Real Sociedad	L 1–3 AD 1–1 H	D 1–1 H
Barcelona	L 1–3 HL 1–3 A	L 0–6 A
Levante	L 2–3 AW 2–0 H	W 2–0 AW 1–0 H
Sevilla	D 2–2 HD 2–2 A	W 2–0 AD 1–1 H
Girona	W 3–0 H	L 1–2 A
Getafe	L 0–1 A	W 1–0 AW 3–0 H
Alaves	L 1–3 A	W 3–2 HD 0–0 A
Celta Vigo	W 2–1 H	L 2–3 HL 1–4 A
Oviedo	W 1–0 H	L 0–1 AL 1–2 H
Atletico Madrid	D 1–1 A	L 1–2 A
Real Betis	D 1–1 H	L 1–2 AD 1–1 H
Points	28 of 87 · 0.97 per game	34 of 87 · 1.17 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

1 Elche wins2 draws4 Valencia wins

Goals per game0.86 – 1.43 Over 2.543% Both scored57% Clean sheets0% · 43%

10 Jan 2026Valencia1–1Elche
23 Apr 2023Elche0–2Valencia
15 Oct 2022Valencia2–2Elche
19 Mar 2022Elche0–1Valencia
11 Dec 2021Valencia2–1Elche
30 Jan 2021Valencia1–0Elche

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Elche	Valencia	Forecast
Scored per game	1.27	1.13
Conceded per game	1.57	1.50
Match goals	2.83	2.63	2.57
Over 1.5	80%	80%
Over 2.5	60%	43%	47%
Over 3.5	43%	23%
Both teams scored	70%	53%	53%
Clean sheets	20%	27%
Failed to score	17%	23%
Games	30	30

	Elche	Valencia	Forecast
Scored per game	1.10	1.50
Conceded per game	2.10	1.40
Match goals	3.20	2.90	2.57
Over 1.5	80%	80%
Over 2.5	80%	50%	47%
Over 3.5	50%	30%
Both teams scored	80%	50%	53%
Clean sheets	10%	30%
Failed to score	20%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Elche	Valencia	League
Corners
Corners won	3.50	5.12
Corners conceded	4.50	4.85
Match total	8.00	9.97	9.54
Over 8.5	43% 13/30	65% 17/26
Over 9.5	33% 10/30	50% 13/26
Over 10.5	20% 6/30	50% 13/26
Cards
Cards	2.30	1.87
Opponent cards	2.20	2.47
Match total	4.50	4.34	4.51
Over 3.5	80% 24/30	67% 20/30
Over 4.5	50% 15/30	53% 16/30

	Elche	Valencia	League
Corners
Corners won	3.50	4.67
Corners conceded	4.70	4.11
Match total	8.20	8.78	9.54
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	33% 3/9
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	2.60	1.80
Opponent cards	2.10	2.70
Match total	4.70	4.50	4.51
Over 3.5	90% 9/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Francisco Hernandez Maeso Spain · 33 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.00league 4.25

Red cards0.12league 0.28

Cards 5+42%league 47%

Fouls23.7league 24.5

Penalties0.39league 0.36

Home wins45%league 48%

Elche1 with this referee

Record0-1-0 Cards · opp.5.0 · 0.0 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1

D23 Nov 25H · Real Madrid2–25

Valencia1 with this referee

Record0-1-0 Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

D7 Oct 23A · Mallorca1–11

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.