Erzurumspor FK
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Erzurumspor FK were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Erzurumspor FK. Erzurumspor FK had 8.9 days of rest, Samsunspor 8 and had to travel 444 km.
Away travel444 kmRest days8.9 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 2
Erzurumspor FK45%
Draw25%
Samsunspor30%
Erzurumspor FK41%
Draw26%
Samsunspor33%
Erzurumspor FK44%
Draw25%
Samsunspor32%
Erzurumspor FK38%
Draw25%
Samsunspor37%
Erzurumspor FK46%
Draw25%
Samsunspor29%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Erzurum)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeAbdullah Bugra Taskinsoy
- Cards per match 3.6
- Penalties per match 0.40
- Matches 5
Team strength
Erzurumspor FK
Samsunspor
24
L90 StrengthIn forecast
28
27
Current StrengthIn forecast
23
17
AttackIn forecast
15
38
DefenceIn forecast
18
19
Form indexContext
16
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSamsunspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Erzurumspor FKSamsunspor
0.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
2.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.20
0.52
xGVia Att/Def
1.13
1.78
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.65
-0.12
Goals minus xGContext
+0.07
40%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
9.50
ShotsContext
14.00
3.25
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
34%
On target shareContext
20%
6.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.80
60%
Box shareContext
59%
5%
ConversionContext
9%
1.33
OffsidesContext
2.33
13.25
Shots allowedContext
16.60
3.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.60
2.50
BlocksContext
4.00
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.40
55%
Save rateContext
67%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
435
PassesContext
509
364
Accurate passesContext
432
84%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.54
Team ratingContext
6.74
11.75
FoulsContext
11.40
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
14.80
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
0.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
2.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
0.52
xGVia Att/Def
1.18
1.78
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.59
-0.12
Goals minus xGContext
+0.62
40%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
9.50
ShotsContext
12.90
3.25
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.78
34%
On target shareContext
33%
6.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.40
60%
Box shareContext
62%
5%
ConversionContext
14%
1.33
OffsidesContext
3.43
13.25
Shots allowedContext
16.50
3.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.40
2.50
BlocksContext
4.40
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.70
55%
Save rateContext
69%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
435
PassesContext
460
364
Accurate passesContext
385
84%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.54
Team ratingContext
6.87
11.75
FoulsContext
12.50
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
13.10
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Erzurumspor FK
LLDWL
Rest8.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km2,098 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Form 19 · 4 pts vs 8.1 for an average club · -1.6 vs expected
Samsunspor
DWLLL
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel444 km1,537 km in 14d
Schedule load11%Low
Form 16 · 4 pts vs 8.6 for an average club · -2.9 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Erzurumspor FK |
Samsunspor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 11 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.9Süper Lig 2026-2027, 11 Sep | 8Süper Lig 2026-2027, 12 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 444 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,098 km | 1,537 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 20 | 20 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Erzurumspor FK
Confirmed XI
1M. Taşkıran(G)
15G. Giorbelidze
18N. Mujakić
22M. Yumlu
4A. Gerxhaliu
53O. Ovacıklı
20Miguel Cardoso
6B. Baiye
42E. Owusu
65M. Rodríguez
10E. Tozlu
Samsunspor
Confirmed XI
1O. Kocuk(G)
17L. Tómasson
34G. Guarino
16S. Eraković
2J. Mendes
4Elliot Watt
5C. Yüksel
11E. Kılınç
8S. Onur
30Saikuba Jarju
18M. Bayo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Erzurumspor FK
Absences are shown before kick-off
Samsunspor
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Erzurumspor FK+1.7 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Samsunspor-1.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Erzurumspor FK · Home
1.50points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 2.00
Samsunspor · Away
1.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Erzurumspor FK | Samsunspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.40 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.20 | 2.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 3.40 | 2.86 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 40% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 40% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 40% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Erzurumspor FK | Samsunspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.40 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.20 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 3.60 | 2.86 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 70% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 50% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 30% | |
| Games | 5 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Erzurumspor FK | Samsunspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.75 | 3.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.00 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 6.75 | 9.60 | 9.31 |
| Over 8.5 | 0% 0/4 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/4 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/4 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 0.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.20 | 2.40 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 2/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 2/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Erzurumspor FK | Samsunspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.75 | 3.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.00 | 6.33 | |
| Match total | 6.75 | 9.77 | 9.31 |
| Over 8.5 | 0% 0/4 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/4 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/4 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 3.20 | 3.90 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 2/5 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 2/5 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Abdullah Bugra Taskinsoy Türkiye · 5 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.40league 3.80
Red cards0.20league 0.16
Cards 5+40%league 40%
Fouls23.2league 25.6
Penalties0.40league 0.32
Home wins20%league 46%
Erzurumspor FKNo previous matches with this referee.
SamsunsporNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Erzurumspor FK5 games · scored 2 · conceded 11
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
61-75
2
76-90
Samsunspor5 games · scored 6 · conceded 11
1
5
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
31-45
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
1
76-90
Erzurumspor FK5 games · scored 2 · conceded 11
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
61-75
2
76-90
Samsunspor10 games · scored 18 · conceded 18
1
7
0-15
2
1
16-30
5
1
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
5
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
