Erzurumspor FK
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Erzurumspor FK44.8%fair odds 2.23
Draw25.8%fair odds 3.88
Samsunspor29.4%fair odds 3.40
Expected goals1.60 – 1.26total 2.86
Likeliest score1–112.2%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Samsunspor
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Erzurumspor FK ↓ · Samsunspor → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 6.6 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.2 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.2 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Erzurumspor FK goals, columns Samsunspor goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.2%8.22
- 2–19.2%10.82
- 1–08.6%11.67
- 2–07.3%13.61
- 1–27.3%13.77
- 0–16.6%15.14
- 0–06.3%15.75
- 2–25.8%17.21
- 3–14.9%20.29
- 0–24.5%22.03
Winning margin
9.6%
Erzurumspor FK by 3+
fair 10.45
13.7%
Erzurumspor FK by 2
fair 7.30
21.5%
Erzurumspor FK by 1
fair 4.65
25.8%
Draw
fair 3.88
16.8%
Samsunspor by 1
fair 5.97
8.5%
Samsunspor by 2
fair 11.82
4.2%
Samsunspor by 3+
fair 23.69
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
16%5+
Erzurumspor FK goals
20%0
32%1
26%2
14%3
8%4+
Samsunspor goals
28%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
4%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Erzurumspor FK win | 44.8% | 45.3% | -0.6 pp |
| Draw | 25.8% | 25.9% | -0.1 pp |
| Samsunspor win | 29.4% | 28.8% | +0.7 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 54.4% | 53.8% | +0.7 pp |
| Both teams score | 57.7% | 57.1% | +0.6 pp |
| Expected goals Erzurumspor FK | 1.60 | 1.60 | +0.00 |
| Expected goals Samsunspor | 1.26 | 1.23 | +0.03 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Erzurumspor FK win44.8%2.23
- Draw25.8%3.88
- Samsunspor win29.4%3.40
- Double chance Erzurumspor FK or draw70.6%1.42
- Double chance Erzurumspor FK or Samsunspor74.2%1.35
- Double chance Samsunspor or draw55.2%1.81
- Draw no bet Erzurumspor FK60.3%1.66
- Draw no bet Samsunspor39.7%2.52
Goals
- Over 0.593.7%1.07
- Over 1.578.5%1.27
- Over 2.554.4%1.84
- Over 3.532.1%3.11
- Over 4.516.1%6.19
- Under 1.521.5%4.65
- Under 2.545.6%2.19
- Under 3.567.9%1.47
Both teams to score
- Yes57.7%1.73
- No42.3%2.37
- Yes and over 2.545.6%2.19
- Erzurumspor FK win and yes22.7%4.41
- Draw and yes19.5%5.14
- Samsunspor win and yes15.6%6.41
Team goals
- Erzurumspor FK over 0.579.8%1.25
- Erzurumspor FK over 1.547.5%2.10
- Erzurumspor FK over 2.521.7%4.61
- Samsunspor over 0.571.6%1.40
- Samsunspor over 1.535.8%2.79
- Samsunspor over 2.513.3%7.50
- Erzurumspor FK clean sheet28.4%3.52
- Samsunspor clean sheet20.2%4.95
- Erzurumspor FK win to nil22.1%4.53
- Samsunspor win to nil13.8%7.23
Handicap
- Erzurumspor FK −1.523.3%4.30
- Erzurumspor FK −2.59.6%10.45
- Samsunspor +1.576.7%1.30
- Samsunspor +2.590.4%1.11
- Samsunspor −1.512.7%7.88
- Erzurumspor FK +1.587.3%1.15
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Süper Lig 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored50
Favourite won44.0%
Avg chance given to result38.2%
1X2 Brier0.632
Over 2.5 called right58.0%
BTTS called right44.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 7 | 38.6% | 42.9% |
| 40–50% | 21 | 44.9% | 33.3% |
| 50–60% | 14 | 55.2% | 42.9% |
| 60–70% | 5 | 65.0% | 60.0% |
| 70–80% | 3 | 75.1% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 24 of 50 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6209 | 0.6086 |
| Avg chance given to result | 38.3% | 39.2% |
| Favourite won | 50.0% | 45.8% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 24 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 50 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.