Espanyol
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Espanyol21.1%fair odds 4.74
Draw26.0%fair odds 3.84
Atletico Madrid52.9%fair odds 1.89
Expected goals0.94 – 1.62total 2.56
Likeliest score1–112.4%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Atletico Madrid
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Espanyol ↓ · Atletico Madrid → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 11.9 | 10.2 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 12.4 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Espanyol goals, columns Atletico Madrid goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.4%8.08
- 0–111.9%8.38
- 0–210.2%9.81
- 1–29.5%10.48
- 0–08.4%11.96
- 1–06.6%15.12
- 0–35.5%18.12
- 2–15.5%18.19
- 1–35.2%19.37
- 2–24.5%22.41
Winning margin
1.9%
Espanyol by 3+
fair 51.96
5.5%
Espanyol by 2
fair 18.31
13.7%
Espanyol by 1
fair 7.30
26.0%
Draw
fair 3.84
24.2%
Atletico Madrid by 1
fair 4.13
16.4%
Atletico Madrid by 2
fair 6.08
12.2%
Atletico Madrid by 3+
fair 8.18
Goal distribution
Total goals
8%0
19%1
26%2
22%3
14%4
12%5+
Espanyol goals
39%0
37%1
17%2
5%3
2%4+
Atletico Madrid goals
20%0
32%1
26%2
14%3
8%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Espanyol win | 21.1% | 21.7% | -0.6 pp |
| Draw | 26.0% | 24.8% | +1.2 pp |
| Atletico Madrid win | 52.9% | 53.5% | -0.6 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 47.1% | 52.5% | -5.4 pp |
| Both teams score | 49.4% | 53.7% | -4.3 pp |
| Expected goals Espanyol | 0.94 | 1.03 | -0.10 |
| Expected goals Atletico Madrid | 1.62 | 1.75 | -0.12 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Espanyol win21.1%4.74
- Draw26.0%3.84
- Atletico Madrid win52.9%1.89
- Double chance Espanyol or draw47.1%2.12
- Double chance Espanyol or Atletico Madrid74.0%1.35
- Double chance Atletico Madrid or draw78.9%1.27
- Draw no bet Espanyol28.5%3.51
- Draw no bet Atletico Madrid71.5%1.40
Goals
- Over 0.591.6%1.09
- Over 1.573.1%1.37
- Over 2.547.1%2.12
- Over 3.525.5%3.92
- Over 4.511.7%8.56
- Under 1.526.9%3.72
- Under 2.552.9%1.89
- Under 3.574.5%1.34
Both teams to score
- Yes49.4%2.02
- No50.6%1.98
- Yes and over 2.537.0%2.70
- Espanyol win and yes9.7%10.29
- Draw and yes17.7%5.66
- Atletico Madrid win and yes22.0%4.54
Team goals
- Espanyol over 0.560.8%1.65
- Espanyol over 1.524.1%4.16
- Espanyol over 2.56.9%14.53
- Atletico Madrid over 0.580.3%1.25
- Atletico Madrid over 1.548.3%2.07
- Atletico Madrid over 2.522.3%4.49
- Espanyol clean sheet19.7%5.07
- Atletico Madrid clean sheet39.2%2.55
- Espanyol win to nil11.4%8.80
- Atletico Madrid win to nil30.9%3.24
Handicap
- Espanyol −1.57.4%13.54
- Espanyol −2.51.9%51.96
- Atletico Madrid +1.592.6%1.08
- Atletico Madrid +2.598.1%1.02
- Atletico Madrid −1.528.7%3.49
- Espanyol +1.571.3%1.40
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record La Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored7
Favourite won57.1%
Avg chance given to result46.2%
1X2 Brier0.492
Over 2.5 called right42.9%
BTTS called right71.4%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 1 | 39.7% | 0.0% |
| 40–50% | 2 | 44.1% | 50.0% |
| 50–60% | 2 | 54.8% | 50.0% |
| 60–70% | 1 | 65.2% | 100.0% |
| 70–80% | 1 | 72.4% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 0 of 7 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | — | — |
| Avg chance given to result | — | — |
| Favourite won | — | — |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off.
No verified pre-match bookmaker odds are available for comparison yet.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 7 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.