Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid – 17 Aug 2025

La Liga Gameweek 1 Sun, Aug 17 · 20:30 RCDE Stadium, Cornella de Llobregat

Espanyol

2–1Full time

Atletico Madrid

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Atletico Madrid were slight favourites.

Atletico Madrid were the stronger side on L90 Strength (83 vs 47). Atletico Madrid usually keep the ball (53% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Espanyol had ? days of rest, Atletico Madrid ? and had to travel 497 km.

Away travel497 kmMatches / 14d0 · 0

Espanyol21%

Draw26%

Atletico Madrid53%

Expected goals 0.94 – 1.62

Espanyol22%

Draw25%

Atletico Madrid54%

Expected goals 1.02 – 1.75

Espanyol21%

Draw26%

Atletico Madrid53%

Expected goals 0.93 – 1.62

Espanyol16%

Draw24%

Atletico Madrid60%

Expected goals 0.83 – 1.82

Espanyol22%

Draw25%

Atletico Madrid54%

Expected goals 1.03 – 1.75

Over 2.5 47% Both score 49% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Cornella de Llobregat)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainMateo Busquets Ferrer

Cards per match 5.7
Penalties per match 0.23
Matches 22

Team strength

Espanyol

Atletico Madrid

47 L90 StrengthIn forecast 83

44 Current StrengthIn forecast 81

36 AttackIn forecast 82

51 DefenceIn forecast 87

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Espanyol

Attack—

Defense risk—

Atletico Madrid

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Espanyol

Atletico Madrid

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.20

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.80

1.30 xGVia Att/Def 1.93

0.96 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.70

+0.00 Goals minus xGContext +0.27

70% Scored inContext 70%

40% Clean sheetsContext 40%

10.00 ShotsContext 13.50

3.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.80

34% On target shareContext 43%

6.70 Shots in the boxContext 9.44

70% Box shareContext 67%

13% ConversionContext 16%

2.50 OffsidesContext 2.63

14.20 Shots allowedContext 8.10

5.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.10

4.40 BlocksContext 2.43

4.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.44

83% Save rateContext 73%

43% PossessionIn forecast 57%

338 PassesContext 535

269 Accurate passesContext 467

80% Pass accuracyContext 87%

7.01 Team ratingContext 7.13

10.90 FoulsContext 11.00

11.80 Fouls sufferedContext 12.40

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.20

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Espanyol

Rest—since last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Atletico Madrid

Rest—since last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel497 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Espanyol	Atletico Madrid
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	—	—
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	497 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	6.9	5.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Espanyol Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

13M. Dmitrović(G)

22Carlos Romero 6L. Cabrera 5F. Calero Villa 23O. El Hilali

8Edu Expósito 10Pol Lozano

7Javi Puado 14Ramon Terrats 17Jofre Carreras

9R. Fernández Jaén

Atletico Madrid Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

13J. Oblak(G)

3M. Ruggeri 17D. Hancko 24R. Le Normand 14Marcos Llorente

5J. Cardoso 4C. Gallagher

11T. Almada 10Álex Baena 20G. Simeone

19J. Alvarez

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Espanyol Absences are shown before kick-off

Atletico Madrid Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Espanyol+0.2 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Atletico Madrid-0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Espanyol · Home No home games yet this season.

Atletico Madrid · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

0 Espanyol wins4 draws2 Atletico Madrid wins

Goals per game1.17 – 1.50 Over 2.550% Both scored83% Clean sheets17% · 17%

29 Mar 2025Espanyol1–1Atletico Madrid
28 Aug 2024Atletico Madrid0–0Espanyol
24 May 2023Espanyol3–3Atletico Madrid
6 Nov 2022Atletico Madrid1–1Espanyol
17 Apr 2022Atletico Madrid2–1Espanyol
12 Sep 2021Espanyol1–2Atletico Madrid

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Espanyol	Atletico Madrid	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.56
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	47%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	49%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Espanyol	Atletico Madrid	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.56
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	47%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	49%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Espanyol	Atletico Madrid	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	10.43
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	3.43
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Espanyol	Atletico Madrid	League
Corners
Corners won	4.60	5.20
Corners conceded	7.00	3.20
Match total	11.60	8.40	10.43
Over 8.5	90% 9/10	30% 3/10
Over 9.5	70% 7/10	20% 2/10
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	1.60	1.20
Opponent cards	1.90	1.50
Match total	3.50	2.70	3.43
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Mateo Busquets Ferrer Spain · 22 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.27league 2.86

Red cards0.41league 0.57

Cards 5+68%league 29%

Fouls24.3league 22.4

Penalties0.23league 0.43

Home wins50%league 43%

Espanyol

No previous matches with this referee.

Atletico Madrid

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.