Espanyol
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Getafe. Espanyol had 6.1 days of rest, Getafe 7 and had to travel 503 km.
Away travel503 kmRest days6.1 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Espanyol31%
Draw30%
Getafe39%
Espanyol42%
Draw27%
Getafe31%
Espanyol31%
Draw30%
Getafe39%
Espanyol25%
Draw29%
Getafe46%
Espanyol32%
Draw28%
Getafe41%
Over 2.5 39%
Both score 46%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Cornella de Llobregat)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainIsidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos
- Cards per match 4.9
- Penalties per match 0.27
- Matches 37
Team strength
Espanyol
Getafe
46
L90 StrengthIn forecast
50
44
Current StrengthIn forecast
48
36
AttackIn forecast
27
51
DefenceIn forecast
59
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGetafe
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
EspanyolGetafe
1.25
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.82
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.07
1.27
xGVia Att/Def
0.74
1.34
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.93
-0.02
Goals minus xGContext
+0.08
82%
Scored inContext
57%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
12.54
ShotsContext
9.07
4.18
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.88
33%
On target shareContext
30%
7.85
Shots in the boxContext
5.42
63%
Box shareContext
58%
10%
ConversionContext
9%
2.20
OffsidesContext
2.72
12.57
Shots allowedContext
10.43
4.86
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.89
3.56
BlocksContext
2.36
3.58
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.23
71%
Save rateContext
79%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
351
PassesContext
286
279
Accurate passesContext
199
80%
Pass accuracyContext
70%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.74
13.46
FoulsContext
13.61
12.43
Fouls sufferedContext
14.54
2.14
Yellow cardsContext
2.82
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.14
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
2.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
1.05
xGVia Att/Def
0.75
1.78
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.96
+0.25
Goals minus xGContext
+0.15
90%
Scored inContext
60%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
12.90
ShotsContext
8.70
3.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.80
28%
On target shareContext
32%
7.44
Shots in the boxContext
6.00
58%
Box shareContext
70%
10%
ConversionContext
10%
2.25
OffsidesContext
3.00
12.60
Shots allowedContext
10.70
5.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.30
3.00
BlocksContext
2.22
3.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.25
61%
Save rateContext
84%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
37%
378
PassesContext
270
307
Accurate passesContext
185
81%
Pass accuracyContext
69%
6.63
Team ratingContext
6.82
13.40
FoulsContext
13.90
12.90
Fouls sufferedContext
13.80
2.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.80
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Espanyol
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km407 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Getafe
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel503 km25 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Espanyol |
Getafe |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1La Liga 2025-2026, 15 Mar | 7La Liga 2025-2026, 14 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 503 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 407 km | 25 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14.1 | 14.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Espanyol
Confirmed XI
13M. Dmitrović(G)
22Carlos Romero
6L. Cabrera
38C. Riedel
23O. El Hilali
24T. Dolan
4Urko González
8Edu Expósito
16C. Ngonge
19Kike García
14Ramon Terrats
Getafe
Confirmed XI
13David Soria(G)
16Diego Rico
24Z. Romero
22Domingos Duarte
2D. Dakonam
21Juan Iglesias
10M. Satriano
8M. Arambarri
5Luis Milla
17Kiko Femenía
19L. Vázquez
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Espanyol
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Getafe
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Espanyol+0.1 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Getafe+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Espanyol · Home
1.50points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-3-5
- Scored
- 1.21
- Conceded
- 1.36
Getafe · Away
1.21points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-2-7
- Scored
- 0.79
- Conceded
- 1.36
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Espanyol | Getafe |
|---|---|---|
| Mallorca | L 1–2 AW 3–2 H | L 0–1 A |
| Oviedo | D 1–1 HW 2–0 A | W 2–0 H |
| Elche | D 2–2 AW 1–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Atletico Madrid | L 2–4 AW 2–1 H | L 0–1 AL 0–1 H |
| Celta Vigo | D 2–2 HW 1–0 A | D 0–0 HW 2–0 A |
| Villarreal | L 1–4 AL 0–2 H | W 2–1 HL 0–2 A |
| Alaves | L 1–2 HL 1–2 A | W 2–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Valencia | L 2–3 AD 2–2 H | L 0–1 HL 0–3 A |
| Girona | L 0–2 HD 0–0 A | D 1–1 AW 2–1 H |
| Levante | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Barcelona | L 0–2 H | L 0–3 A |
| Athletic Club | W 2–1 A | W 1–0 A |
| Rayo Vallecano | W 1–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Sevilla | W 2–1 H | L 0–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Real Betis | L 1–2 H | W 2–0 HL 0–4 A |
| Real Madrid | L 0–2 A | W 1–0 AL 0–1 H |
| Osasuna | W 1–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| Real Sociedad | D 2–2 A | L 1–2 H |
| Points | 34 of 81 · 1.26 per game | 35 of 81 · 1.30 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
5 Espanyol wins0 draws2 Getafe wins
Goals per game1.14 – 0.57
Over 2.529%
Both scored29%
Clean sheets57% · 14%
- 13 Dec 2025Getafe0–1Espanyol
- 18 Apr 2025Espanyol1–0Getafe
- 9 Dec 2024Getafe1–0Espanyol
- 30 Apr 2023Espanyol1–0Getafe
- 15 Jan 2023Getafe1–2Espanyol
- 5 Mar 2022Espanyol2–0Getafe
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Espanyol | Getafe | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.25 | 0.82 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.07 | |
| Match goals | 2.75 | 1.89 | 2.26 |
| Over 1.5 | 79% | 61% | |
| Over 2.5 | 54% | 29% | 39% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 4% | |
| Both teams scored | 61% | 32% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 18% | 43% | |
| Games | 28 | 28 |
| Espanyol | Getafe | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.30 | 0.70 | |
| Match goals | 3.60 | 1.60 | 2.26 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 20% | 39% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 30% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Espanyol | Getafe | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.30 | 4.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.37 | 4.46 | |
| Match total | 8.67 | 8.57 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 12/27 | 46% 13/28 | |
| Over 9.5 | 37% 10/27 | 36% 10/28 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 8/27 | 29% 8/28 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.29 | 3.04 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.25 | 2.29 | |
| Match total | 4.54 | 5.33 | 4.46 |
| Over 3.5 | 64% 18/28 | 75% 21/28 | |
| Over 4.5 | 57% 16/28 | 64% 18/28 | |
| Espanyol | Getafe | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.33 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.44 | 5.10 | |
| Match total | 7.77 | 8.60 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 2/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 3.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 5.80 | 4.46 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Isidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos Spain · 37 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.62league 4.21
Red cards0.30league 0.28
Cards 5+59%league 47%
Fouls26.3league 24.5
Penalties0.27league 0.37
Home wins32%league 48%
Espanyol1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W30 Nov 25A · Celta Vigo1–01
Getafe4 with this referee
Record2-1-1
Cards · opp.3.5 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L18 Jan 26H · Valencia0–12
- W25 Oct 25A · Athletic Club1–03
- W25 Aug 25A · Sevilla2–13
- D27 Sep 23A · Athletic Club2–26
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Espanyol28 games · scored 35 · conceded 42
5
4
0-15
1
3
16-30
6
10
31-45
10
9
46-60
3
8
61-75
10
8
76-90
Getafe28 games · scored 23 · conceded 30
1
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
5
6
31-45
7
5
46-60
5
4
61-75
3
9
76-90
Espanyol10 games · scored 13 · conceded 23
3
2
0-15
2
16-30
2
5
31-45
3
6
46-60
1
3
61-75
4
5
76-90
Getafe10 games · scored 9 · conceded 7
1
0-15
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
