Espanyol vs Real Betis – 5 Oct 2025

La Liga Gameweek 8 Sun, Oct 5 · 17:30 RCDE Stadium, Cornella de Llobregat

Espanyol 9th · 12 pts · 7 played WWLDD

1–2Full time

Real Betis 8th · 12 pts · 7 played DLDWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Real Betis were the stronger side on L90 Strength (67 vs 52). Espanyol had 8.9 days of rest, Real Betis 3 and had to travel 821 km.

Away travel821 kmRest days8.9 · 3Matches / 14d2 · 3

Espanyol33%

Draw28%

Real Betis39%

Expected goals 1.20 – 1.32

Espanyol35%

Draw27%

Real Betis38%

Expected goals 1.30 – 1.38

Espanyol33%

Draw29%

Real Betis38%

Expected goals 1.17 – 1.27

Espanyol27%

Draw27%

Real Betis46%

Expected goals 1.07 – 1.47

Espanyol34%

Draw27%

Real Betis39%

Expected goals 1.33 – 1.42

Over 2.5 46% Both score 52% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Cornella de Llobregat)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainIosu Galech Apezteguia

Cards per match 5.0
Penalties per match 0.25
Matches 4

Team strength

Espanyol

Real Betis

52 L90 StrengthIn forecast 67

44 Current StrengthIn forecast 71

36 AttackIn forecast 79

51 DefenceIn forecast 59

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Espanyol

Attack—

Defense risk—

Real Betis

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Espanyol

Real Betis

1.43 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.57

1.29 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.57 xGVia Att/Def 1.29

1.18 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.84

-0.14 Goals minus xGContext +0.28

71% Scored inContext 100%

29% Clean sheetsContext 29%

12.57 ShotsContext 15.00

4.29 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.86

34% On target shareContext 32%

7.57 Shots in the boxContext 9.14

61% Box shareContext 58%

11% ConversionContext 11%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.00

13.14 Shots allowedContext 10.57

4.86 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.71

3.71 BlocksContext 2.43

4.17 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.33

78% Save rateContext 83%

41% PossessionIn forecast 51%

348 PassesContext 478

278 Accurate passesContext 408

80% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.83 Team ratingContext 6.94

13.00 FoulsContext 9.43

12.00 Fouls sufferedContext 14.29

1.57 Yellow cardsContext 1.43

0.14 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

1.50 xGVia Att/Def 1.08

1.07 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.09

-0.30 Goals minus xGContext +0.52

60% Scored inContext 100%

30% Clean sheetsContext 30%

12.10 ShotsContext 13.60

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.30

33% On target shareContext 32%

7.30 Shots in the boxContext 8.20

62% Box shareContext 57%

10% ConversionContext 12%

2.29 OffsidesContext 2.50

13.00 Shots allowedContext 11.40

4.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

3.90 BlocksContext 3.00

3.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.11

77% Save rateContext 74%

41% PossessionIn forecast 49%

346 PassesContext 457

276 Accurate passesContext 391

80% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.84 Team ratingContext 6.88

11.60 FoulsContext 11.30

11.60 Fouls sufferedContext 13.70

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Espanyol

Rest8.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km187 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Real Betis

Rest3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel821 km5,627 km in 14d

Schedule load45%High

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Espanyol	Real Betis
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	High · 45
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8.9La Liga 2025-2026, 26 Sep	3UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 2 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	821 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	187 km	5,627 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 2 / 4	2 / 3 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	12.1	13

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Espanyol Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

13M. Dmitrović(G)

22Carlos Romero 6L. Cabrera 38C. Riedel 23O. El Hilali

8Edu Expósito 10Pol Lozano

11Pere Milla 7Javi Puado 24T. Dolan

9R. Fernández Jaén

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Real Betis Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

25Pau López(G)

12R. Rodríguez 16Valentín Gómez 4Natan 2Héctor Bellerín

21Marc Roca 8Pablo Fornals

10A. Ezzalzouli 20G. Lo Celso 7Antony

19C. Hernández

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Espanyol Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Real Betis Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Espanyol-0.1 pp
Draw-0.5 pp
Real Betis+0.6 pp

Home / Away this season

Espanyol · Home 2.50points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 3-1-0
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 1.25

Real Betis · Away 1.00points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 0-3-0
Scored: 1.33
Conceded: 1.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

Opponent	Espanyol	Real Betis
Osasuna	W 1–0 H	W 2–0 H
Real Sociedad	D 2–2 A	W 3–1 H
Points	4 of 6 · 2.00 per game	6 of 6 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

1 Espanyol wins1 draws4 Real Betis wins

Goals per game1.00 – 2.00 Over 2.567% Both scored67% Clean sheets17% · 17%

4 May 2025Espanyol1–2Real Betis
29 Sep 2024Real Betis1–0Espanyol
15 Apr 2023Real Betis3–1Espanyol
21 Jan 2023Espanyol1–0Real Betis
21 Jan 2022Espanyol1–4Real Betis
19 Sep 2021Real Betis2–2Espanyol

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Espanyol	Real Betis	Forecast
Scored per game	1.43	1.57
Conceded per game	1.29	1.00
Match goals	2.71	2.57	2.51
Over 1.5	71%	86%
Over 2.5	57%	43%	46%
Over 3.5	43%	29%
Both teams scored	57%	71%	52%
Clean sheets	29%	29%
Failed to score	29%	0%
Games	7	7

	Espanyol	Real Betis	Forecast
Scored per game	1.43	1.67
Conceded per game	1.29	1.00
Match goals	2.71	2.67	2.51
Over 1.5	71%	89%
Over 2.5	57%	44%	46%
Over 3.5	43%	33%
Both teams scored	57%	67%	52%
Clean sheets	29%	33%
Failed to score	29%	0%
Games	7	9

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Espanyol	Real Betis	League
Corners
Corners won	3.14	5.14
Corners conceded	5.00	5.14
Match total	8.14	10.28	9.72
Over 8.5	43% 3/7	57% 4/7
Over 9.5	43% 3/7	57% 4/7
Over 10.5	43% 3/7	43% 3/7
Cards
Cards	1.71	1.43
Opponent cards	2.14	2.86
Match total	3.85	4.29	4.38
Over 3.5	71% 5/7	57% 4/7
Over 4.5	43% 3/7	43% 3/7

	Espanyol	Real Betis	League
Corners
Corners won	3.40	4.70
Corners conceded	5.20	4.80
Match total	8.60	9.50	9.72
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	1.90	1.80
Opponent cards	2.00	2.60
Match total	3.90	4.40	4.38
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Iosu Galech Apezteguia Spain · 4 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.00league 4.10

Red cards0.00league 0.29

Cards 5+50%league 47%

Fouls31.3league 24.5

Penalties0.25league 0.34

Home wins50%league 51%

Espanyol

No previous matches with this referee.

Real Betis

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.