Espanyol
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Espanyol were slight favourites.
Real Sociedad were the stronger side on L90 Strength (53 vs 46). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Espanyol. Espanyol had 6.1 days of rest, Real Sociedad 6.1 and had to travel 399 km.
Away travel399 kmRest days6.1 · 6.1Matches / 14d2 · 3
Espanyol42%
Draw27%
Real Sociedad31%
Espanyol39%
Draw27%
Real Sociedad34%
Espanyol42%
Draw27%
Real Sociedad31%
Espanyol35%
Draw27%
Real Sociedad38%
Espanyol44%
Draw25%
Real Sociedad31%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Cornella de Llobregat)
No weather data yet
RefereeJosé Munuera
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 76
Team strength
Espanyol
Real Sociedad
46
L90 StrengthIn forecast
53
44
Current StrengthIn forecast
58
36
AttackIn forecast
62
51
DefenceIn forecast
48
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisReal Sociedad
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
EspanyolReal Sociedad
1.14
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.57
1.46
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.62
1.20
xGVia Att/Def
1.26
1.38
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.41
-0.06
Goals minus xGContext
+0.31
76%
Scored inContext
86%
27%
Clean sheetsContext
8%
12.19
ShotsContext
12.08
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.64
33%
On target shareContext
37%
7.66
Shots in the boxContext
7.43
62%
Box shareContext
64%
9%
ConversionContext
13%
2.48
OffsidesContext
2.97
13.24
Shots allowedContext
13.51
5.08
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.36
3.69
BlocksContext
3.62
3.66
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.13
70%
Save rateContext
66%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
342
PassesContext
443
269
Accurate passesContext
368
79%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.79
13.68
FoulsContext
13.78
12.62
Fouls sufferedContext
12.14
2.32
Yellow cardsContext
2.19
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.11
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
1.00
xGVia Att/Def
1.39
1.55
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.49
-0.20
Goals minus xGContext
+0.41
60%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.00
ShotsContext
11.10
3.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.56
30%
On target shareContext
37%
6.78
Shots in the boxContext
6.70
58%
Box shareContext
62%
7%
ConversionContext
16%
3.63
OffsidesContext
3.63
16.40
Shots allowedContext
15.50
6.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.44
4.20
BlocksContext
3.80
4.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
70%
Save rateContext
68%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
307
PassesContext
479
231
Accurate passesContext
407
75%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.79
14.30
FoulsContext
12.20
12.90
Fouls sufferedContext
13.80
2.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.90
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Espanyol
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km696 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Real Sociedad
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel399 km839 km in 14d
Schedule load21%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Espanyol |
Real Sociedad |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 21 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1La Liga 2025-2026, 17 May | 6.1La Liga 2025-2026, 17 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 399 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 696 km | 839 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 5 | 1 / 3 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 84.9 | 90 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Espanyol
Confirmed XI
1Ángel Fortuño(G)
22Carlos Romero
6L. Cabrera
5F. Calero Villa
2Rubén Sánchez
20Antoniu Roca
8Edu Expósito
4Urko González
17Jofre Carreras
9R. Fernández Jaén
14Ramon Terrats
Real Sociedad
Confirmed XI
13Unai Marrero(G)
17Sergio Gómez
5Zubeldia
38Luken Beitia
2J. Aramburu
47Job Ochieng
12Y. Herrera
8Beñat Turrientes
24L. Sučić
18Carlos Soler
9O. Óskarsson
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Espanyol
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Real Sociedad
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Espanyol-0.2 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Real Sociedad+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Espanyol · Home
1.39points per game · 18 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-4-7
- Scored
- 1.11
- Conceded
- 1.28
Real Sociedad · Away
0.89points per game · 18 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-7-8
- Scored
- 1.17
- Conceded
- 1.61
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Espanyol | Real Sociedad |
|---|---|---|
| Osasuna | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H | W 3–1 HW 3–1 A |
| Athletic Club | W 2–0 HW 2–1 A | D 1–1 AW 3–2 H |
| Sevilla | L 1–2 AW 2–1 H | L 0–1 AW 2–1 H |
| Real Madrid | L 0–2 HL 0–2 A | L 1–4 AL 1–2 H |
| Levante | D 0–0 HD 1–1 A | W 2–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Rayo Vallecano | L 0–1 AW 1–0 H | D 3–3 AL 0–1 H |
| Barcelona | L 1–4 AL 0–2 H | W 2–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Real Betis | D 0–0 AL 1–2 H | D 2–2 HL 1–3 A |
| Getafe | L 1–2 HW 1–0 A | L 0–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Mallorca | L 1–2 AW 3–2 H | W 1–0 AW 1–0 H |
| Oviedo | D 1–1 HW 2–0 A | D 3–3 HL 0–1 A |
| Elche | D 2–2 AW 1–0 H | W 3–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Atletico Madrid | L 2–4 AW 2–1 H | L 2–3 AD 1–1 H |
| Celta Vigo | D 2–2 HW 1–0 A | W 3–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Villarreal | L 1–4 AL 0–2 H | L 1–3 AL 2–3 H |
| Alaves | L 1–2 HL 1–2 A | D 3–3 HL 0–1 A |
| Valencia | L 2–3 AD 2–2 H | L 3–4 HD 1–1 A |
| Girona | L 0–2 HD 0–0 A | D 1–1 AL 1–2 H |
| Points | 44 of 108 · 1.22 per game | 44 of 108 · 1.22 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
1 Espanyol wins1 draws5 Real Sociedad wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.57
Over 2.557%
Both scored57%
Clean sheets14% · 29%
- 24 Aug 2025Real Sociedad2–2Espanyol
- 9 Feb 2025Real Sociedad2–1Espanyol
- 24 Aug 2024Espanyol0–1Real Sociedad
- 13 Feb 2023Espanyol2–3Real Sociedad
- 18 Sep 2022Real Sociedad2–1Espanyol
- 4 Apr 2022Real Sociedad1–0Espanyol
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Espanyol | Real Sociedad | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.14 | 1.57 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.46 | 1.62 | |
| Match goals | 2.59 | 3.19 | 2.74 |
| Over 1.5 | 76% | 81% | |
| Over 2.5 | 51% | 59% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 24% | 43% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 78% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 27% | 8% | |
| Failed to score | 24% | 14% | |
| Games | 37 | 37 |
| Espanyol | Real Sociedad | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 3.70 | 2.74 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Espanyol | Real Sociedad | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.58 | 5.46 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.83 | 4.43 | |
| Match total | 9.41 | 9.89 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 53% 19/36 | 65% 24/37 | |
| Over 9.5 | 42% 15/36 | 49% 18/37 | |
| Over 10.5 | 36% 13/36 | 41% 15/37 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.46 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.43 | 2.43 | |
| Match total | 4.89 | 4.73 | 4.52 |
| Over 3.5 | 68% 25/37 | 62% 23/37 | |
| Over 4.5 | 59% 22/37 | 41% 15/37 | |
| Espanyol | Real Sociedad | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 4.20 | |
| Match total | 11.50 | 9.20 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.10 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.00 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 6.10 | 5.50 | 4.52 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · José Munuera 76 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.32league 4.25
Red cards0.21league 0.28
Cards 5+45%league 46%
Fouls25.1league 24.5
Penalties0.25league 0.35
Home wins41%league 48%
Espanyol6 with this referee
Record0-1-5
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.7
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds2
- L3 Nov 24A · Barcelona1–33
- L21 Sep 24A · Real Madrid1–43
- L8 Apr 23H · Athletic Club1–26
- D23 Oct 22H · Elche2–22
- L30 Apr 22A · Real Madrid0–40
Real Sociedad10 with this referee
Record2-5-3
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.2
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- L12 Apr 25H · Mallorca0–23
- D1 Sep 24A · Getafe0–01
- D6 Nov 22H · Valencia1–13
- L21 Aug 22H · Barcelona1–42
- D23 Jan 22H · Getafe0–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Espanyol37 games · scored 42 · conceded 54
5
5
0-15
2
4
16-30
6
12
31-45
13
11
46-60
5
9
61-75
11
13
76-90
Real Sociedad37 games · scored 58 · conceded 60
4
9
0-15
10
8
16-30
10
11
31-45
11
11
46-60
9
5
61-75
14
16
76-90
Espanyol10 games · scored 8 · conceded 14
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
1
6
76-90
Real Sociedad10 games · scored 18 · conceded 19
2
4
0-15
6
5
16-30
1
31-45
4
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
