Espanyol
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Espanyol39.5%fair odds 2.53
Draw27.3%fair odds 3.67
Sevilla33.2%fair odds 3.01
Expected goals1.40 – 1.26total 2.66
Likeliest score1–113.0%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Sevilla
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Espanyol ↓ · Sevilla → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.2 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 13.0 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.6 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Espanyol goals, columns Sevilla goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.0%7.70
- 1–09.1%10.99
- 2–18.6%11.59
- 0–18.2%12.26
- 1–27.8%12.83
- 0–07.6%13.11
- 2–06.8%14.65
- 0–25.6%17.96
- 2–25.5%18.34
- 3–14.0%24.85
Winning margin
7.0%
Espanyol by 3+
fair 14.35
11.9%
Espanyol by 2
fair 8.44
20.7%
Espanyol by 1
fair 4.83
27.3%
Draw
fair 3.67
18.6%
Sevilla by 1
fair 5.37
9.7%
Sevilla by 2
fair 10.34
4.9%
Sevilla by 3+
fair 20.23
Goal distribution
Total goals
8%0
17%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
13%5+
Espanyol goals
25%0
35%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+
Sevilla goals
28%0
36%1
23%2
10%3
4%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Espanyol win | 39.5% | 39.9% | -0.4 pp |
| Draw | 27.3% | 26.8% | +0.5 pp |
| Sevilla win | 33.2% | 33.4% | -0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 49.7% | 51.8% | -2.1 pp |
| Both teams score | 54.7% | 56.3% | -1.6 pp |
| Expected goals Espanyol | 1.40 | 1.45 | -0.05 |
| Expected goals Sevilla | 1.26 | 1.30 | -0.04 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Espanyol win39.5%2.53
- Draw27.3%3.67
- Sevilla win33.2%3.01
- Double chance Espanyol or draw66.8%1.50
- Double chance Espanyol or Sevilla72.7%1.37
- Double chance Sevilla or draw60.5%1.65
- Draw no bet Espanyol54.3%1.84
- Draw no bet Sevilla45.7%2.19
Goals
- Over 0.592.4%1.08
- Over 1.575.1%1.33
- Over 2.549.7%2.01
- Over 3.527.8%3.60
- Over 4.513.2%7.60
- Under 1.524.9%4.02
- Under 2.550.3%1.99
- Under 3.572.2%1.38
Both teams to score
- Yes54.7%1.83
- No45.3%2.21
- Yes and over 2.541.7%2.40
- Espanyol win and yes18.9%5.30
- Draw and yes19.6%5.09
- Sevilla win and yes16.2%6.18
Team goals
- Espanyol over 0.575.3%1.33
- Espanyol over 1.540.8%2.45
- Espanyol over 2.516.6%6.01
- Sevilla over 0.571.7%1.39
- Sevilla over 1.536.0%2.78
- Sevilla over 2.513.5%7.43
- Espanyol clean sheet28.3%3.54
- Sevilla clean sheet24.7%4.05
- Espanyol win to nil20.6%4.85
- Sevilla win to nil17.1%5.86
Handicap
- Espanyol −1.518.8%5.31
- Espanyol −2.57.0%14.35
- Sevilla +1.581.2%1.23
- Sevilla +2.593.0%1.07
- Sevilla −1.514.6%6.84
- Espanyol +1.585.4%1.17
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record La Liga 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored38
Favourite won47.4%
Avg chance given to result41.5%
1X2 Brier0.576
Over 2.5 called right52.6%
BTTS called right55.3%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 8 | 38.8% | 25.0% |
| 40–50% | 15 | 45.1% | 33.3% |
| 50–60% | 8 | 54.8% | 62.5% |
| 60–70% | 3 | 65.7% | 66.7% |
| 70–80% | 2 | 76.1% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 2 | 82.8% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 19 of 38 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5808 | 0.6008 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.5% | 40.8% |
| Favourite won | 47.4% | 52.6% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 19 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✓Alaves 5–2 Osasuna45·26·29
- ✗Malaga 0–0 Levante39·25·36
- ✓Valencia 0–5 Barcelona13·17·69
- ✗Villarreal 2–3 Deportivo La Coruna65·19·15
- ✓Rayo Vallecano 3–2 Racing Santander47·24·29
- ✗Athletic Club 3–0 Atletico Madrid36·25·39
- ✗Real Betis 1–0 Real Madrid21·21·59
- ✗Real Sociedad 0–0 Celta Vigo53·23·24
- ✓Barcelona 5–2 Rayo Vallecano84·10·6
- ✓Osasuna 1–0 Getafe51·25·23
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 38 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.