Espanyol
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Sevilla. Espanyol had 8.1 days of rest, Sevilla 8 and had to travel 821 km. Weather to note: heat stress.
Away travel821 kmRest days8.1 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Espanyol40%
Draw26%
Sevilla34%
Espanyol44%
Draw26%
Sevilla31%
Espanyol41%
Draw26%
Sevilla33%
Espanyol33%
Draw26%
Sevilla41%
Espanyol41%
Draw25%
Sevilla34%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Cornella de Llobregat)
Heat stress
28°COvercast
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 4 km/h
- Humidity 80%
Referee · SpainMiguel Sesma Espinosa
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 21
Team strength
Espanyol
Sevilla
46
L90 StrengthIn forecast
47
44
Current StrengthIn forecast
50
36
AttackIn forecast
48
51
DefenceIn forecast
57
46
Form indexContext
70
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSevilla
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
EspanyolSevilla
1.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.67
1.12
xGVia Att/Def
1.17
1.60
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.36
+0.55
Goals minus xGContext
+0.83
100%
Scored inContext
100%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
11.67
ShotsContext
13.33
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.33
34%
On target shareContext
33%
6.33
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
54%
Box shareContext
60%
14%
ConversionContext
15%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.67
14.00
Shots allowedContext
12.00
9.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.33
3.67
BlocksContext
3.50
6.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.33
72%
Save rateContext
63%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
395
PassesContext
325
325
Accurate passesContext
247
82%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.76
16.67
FoulsContext
18.00
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
15.00
4.00
Yellow cardsContext
3.67
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.33
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.14
xGVia Att/Def
0.94
1.43
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.09
-0.04
Goals minus xGContext
+0.36
70%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.90
ShotsContext
12.90
4.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.22
36%
On target shareContext
30%
6.90
Shots in the boxContext
6.70
58%
Box shareContext
51%
9%
ConversionContext
10%
2.86
OffsidesContext
2.20
14.30
Shots allowedContext
10.10
6.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.22
4.10
BlocksContext
2.56
4.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
69%
Save rateContext
63%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
352
PassesContext
357
276
Accurate passesContext
283
78%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.78
14.50
FoulsContext
16.20
13.00
Fouls sufferedContext
13.30
2.80
Yellow cardsContext
3.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Espanyol
WLL
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km797 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 46 · 3 pts vs 3.5 for an average club · -0.4 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Espanyol |
Sevilla |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.1La Liga 2026-2027, 29 Aug | 8La Liga 2026-2027, 29 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 821 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 797 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.8 | 5 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Espanyol
Confirmed XI
13M. Dmitrović(G)
21Roger Hinojo
6L. Cabrera
14Unai Núñez
23O. El Hilali
8Edu Expósito
20Gabriel Moscardo
24T. Dolan
28Javi Hernández
22Álex Calatrava
9R. Fernández Jaén
Sevilla
Confirmed XI
1O. Vlachodimos(G)
17G. Suazo
4Kike Salas
12A. Sangante
2Juan Iglesias
18Jon Guridi
6L. Agoumé
8G. Kochorashvili
21C. Ejuke
9R. Ure
30Miguel Sierra
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Espanyol
Absences are shown before kick-off
Sevilla
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Espanyol-0.8 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- Sevilla+0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Espanyol · Home
1.50points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Sevilla · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
1 Espanyol wins2 draws5 Sevilla wins
Goals per game1.13 – 1.88
Over 2.550%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets0% · 25%
- 9 May 2026Sevilla2–1Espanyol
- 24 Nov 2025Espanyol2–1Sevilla
- 25 Jan 2025Sevilla1–1Espanyol
- 25 Oct 2024Espanyol0–2Sevilla
- 4 May 2023Sevilla3–2Espanyol
- 10 Sep 2022Espanyol2–3Sevilla
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Espanyol | Sevilla | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.67 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.33 | 1.67 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.67 | 2.66 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 100% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 100% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Espanyol | Sevilla | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 2.70 | 2.66 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Espanyol | Sevilla | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.00 | 2.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.00 | 4.67 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 7.34 | 10.42 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 1/1 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 1/1 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/1 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 4.00 | 4.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 7.00 | 4.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 2/3 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 67% 2/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Espanyol | Sevilla | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.38 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 4.20 | |
| Match total | 10.38 | 7.70 | 10.42 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 6/8 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.90 | 3.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 5.30 | 4.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Miguel Sesma Espinosa Spain · 21 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.76league 4.26
Red cards0.05league 0.21
Cards 5+38%league 45%
Fouls26.5league 25.0
Penalties0.33league 0.34
Home wins52%league 53%
Espanyol3 with this referee
Record2-0-1
Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.7
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L30 Jan 26H · Alaves1–21
- W24 Nov 25H · Sevilla2–14
- W31 Aug 25H · Osasuna1–02
Sevilla1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 4.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L24 Nov 25A · Espanyol1–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Espanyol3 games · scored 5 · conceded 4
1
2
0-15
1
16-30
2
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
Sevilla3 games · scored 6 · conceded 5
1
2
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
76-90
Espanyol10 games · scored 11 · conceded 11
1
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
Sevilla10 games · scored 13 · conceded 14
1
4
0-15
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
4
2
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
