Espanyol vs Villarreal – 8 Nov 2025

La Liga Gameweek 12 Sat, Nov 8 · 20:00 RCDE Stadium, Cornella de Llobregat

Espanyol 6th · 18 pts · 11 played DLWWL

0–2Full time

Villarreal 4th · 23 pts · 11 played WLDWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Villarreal were slight favourites.

Villarreal were the stronger side on L90 Strength (73 vs 52). Espanyol had 6.2 days of rest, Villarreal 7.3 and had to travel 242 km.

Away travel242 kmRest days6.2 · 7.3Matches / 14d1 · 1

Espanyol29%

Draw29%

Villarreal42%

Expected goals 1.08 – 1.33

Espanyol30%

Draw27%

Villarreal43%

Expected goals 1.21 – 1.48

Espanyol30%

Draw29%

Villarreal42%

Expected goals 1.08 – 1.33

Espanyol24%

Draw27%

Villarreal49%

Expected goals 0.96 – 1.49

Espanyol30%

Draw27%

Villarreal43%

Expected goals 1.21 – 1.48

Over 2.5 43% Both score 49% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Cornella de Llobregat)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainAlejandro Hernandez

Cards per match 5.5
Penalties per match 0.31
Matches 117

Team strength

Espanyol

Villarreal

52 L90 StrengthIn forecast 73

44 Current StrengthIn forecast 67

36 AttackIn forecast 76

51 DefenceIn forecast 73

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Espanyol

Attack—

Defense risk—

Villarreal

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Espanyol

Villarreal

1.36 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00

1.18 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.91

1.71 xGVia Att/Def 1.70

1.14 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.16

-0.35 Goals minus xGContext +0.30

82% Scored inContext 91%

36% Clean sheetsContext 45%

13.82 ShotsContext 14.00

4.82 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.09

35% On target shareContext 36%

8.91 Shots in the boxContext 9.36

64% Box shareContext 67%

10% ConversionContext 14%

2.00 OffsidesContext 3.14

12.64 Shots allowedContext 11.55

4.45 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.18

3.45 BlocksContext 4.89

3.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.27

77% Save rateContext 71%

41% PossessionIn forecast 45%

348 PassesContext 420

280 Accurate passesContext 360

80% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.86 Team ratingContext 6.99

13.82 FoulsContext 10.73

11.91 Fouls sufferedContext 11.55

1.82 Yellow cardsContext 2.09

0.09 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 11 and 11 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.76 xGVia Att/Def 1.62

1.18 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.37

-0.46 Goals minus xGContext -0.02

80% Scored inContext 80%

40% Clean sheetsContext 30%

14.30 ShotsContext 13.70

4.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.70

34% On target shareContext 34%

9.20 Shots in the boxContext 8.70

64% Box shareContext 64%

9% ConversionContext 12%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.86

12.50 Shots allowedContext 12.70

4.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.60

3.40 BlocksContext 5.13

3.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.40

77% Save rateContext 67%

41% PossessionIn forecast 44%

344 PassesContext 389

275 Accurate passesContext 327

80% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.85 Team ratingContext 6.88

13.90 FoulsContext 11.40

12.00 Fouls sufferedContext 12.80

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 2.40

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Espanyol

Rest6.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km853 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Villarreal

Rest7.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel242 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Espanyol	Villarreal
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.2La Liga 2025-2026, 2 Nov	7.3La Liga 2025-2026, 1 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	242 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	853 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 3	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	16	14

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Espanyol Confirmed XI

4-4-1-1

13M. Dmitrović(G)

12José Salinas 6L. Cabrera 5F. Calero Villa 23O. El Hilali

11Pere Milla 10Pol Lozano 4Urko González 24T. Dolan

8Edu Expósito

9R. Fernández Jaén

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Villarreal Confirmed XI

4-4-2

1Luíz Júnior(G)

24A. Pedraza Sag 12Renato Veiga 4Rafa Marín 26Pau Navarro

20Alberto Moleiro 16T. Partey 14Santi Comesaña 17T. Buchanan

21T. Oluwaseyi 7Gerard Moreno

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Espanyol Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Villarreal Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Espanyol-0.1 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Villarreal+0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Espanyol · Home 2.17points per game · 6 home games

W-D-L: 4-1-1
Scored: 1.67
Conceded: 1.17

Villarreal · Away 1.40points per game · 5 away games

W-D-L: 2-1-2
Scored: 1.20
Conceded: 1.40

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 7 this season

Opponent	Espanyol	Villarreal
Oviedo	W 2–0 A	W 2–0 H
Real Betis	L 1–2 H	D 2–2 H
Girona	D 0–0 A	W 5–0 H
Valencia	D 2–2 H	W 2–0 A
Real Madrid	L 0–2 A	L 1–3 A
Osasuna	W 1–0 H	W 2–1 H
Atletico Madrid	W 2–1 H	L 0–2 A
Points	11 of 21 · 1.57 per game	13 of 21 · 1.86 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

0 Espanyol wins1 draws5 Villarreal wins

Goals per game0.67 – 2.17 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets17% · 50%

27 Apr 2025Villarreal1–0Espanyol
26 Sep 2024Espanyol1–2Villarreal
27 Apr 2023Villarreal4–2Espanyol
9 Nov 2022Espanyol0–1Villarreal
27 Feb 2022Villarreal5–1Espanyol
21 Aug 2021Espanyol0–0Villarreal

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Espanyol	Villarreal	Forecast
Scored per game	1.36	2.00
Conceded per game	1.18	0.91
Match goals	2.55	2.91	2.41
Over 1.5	73%	91%
Over 2.5	55%	55%	43%
Over 3.5	27%	36%
Both teams scored	55%	45%	49%
Clean sheets	36%	45%
Failed to score	18%	9%
Games	11	11

	Espanyol	Villarreal	Forecast
Scored per game	1.30	2.00
Conceded per game	1.20	1.00
Match goals	2.50	3.00	2.41
Over 1.5	70%	90%
Over 2.5	50%	60%	43%
Over 3.5	30%	40%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	49%
Clean sheets	40%	40%
Failed to score	20%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Espanyol	Villarreal	League
Corners
Corners won	4.27	5.11
Corners conceded	4.18	4.11
Match total	8.45	9.22	9.77
Over 8.5	36% 4/11	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	36% 4/11	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	36% 4/11	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	1.91	2.18
Opponent cards	2.45	1.73
Match total	4.36	3.91	4.27
Over 3.5	73% 8/11	55% 6/11
Over 4.5	55% 6/11	45% 5/11

	Espanyol	Villarreal	League
Corners
Corners won	4.60	3.63
Corners conceded	4.30	4.13
Match total	8.90	7.76	9.77
Over 8.5	40% 4/10	38% 3/8
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	38% 3/8
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	25% 2/8
Cards
Cards	1.80	2.50
Opponent cards	2.40	1.70
Match total	4.20	4.20	4.27
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Alejandro Hernandez Spain · 117 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.26league 4.02

Red cards0.26league 0.25

Cards 5+62%league 43%

Fouls25.3league 24.7

Penalties0.31league 0.36

Home wins38%league 49%

Espanyol9 with this referee

Record3-3-3 Cards · opp.2.9 · 2.0 Pens for · against2 · 3 Reds3

W15 Sep 25H · Mallorca3–23
W4 Apr 25A · Rayo Vallecano4–02
L23 Nov 24A · Girona1–43
L29 Sep 24A · Real Betis0–14
W21 May 23A · Rayo Vallecano2–12

Villarreal12 with this referee

Record2-7-3 Cards · opp.2.6 · 3.0 Pens for · against1 · 0 Reds2

D18 Oct 25H · Real Betis2–21
D18 Dec 24H · Rayo Vallecano1–15
D19 May 24H · Real Madrid4–42
W10 Mar 24A · Real Betis3–24
L27 Aug 23H · Barcelona3–43

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.