Estac Troyes
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel68 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Estac Troyes—%
Draw—%
Auxerre—%
Weather (Troyes)
Forecast from 5 Mar
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Estac Troyes and Auxerre. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Trend
Auxerre
86%
Both teams scored
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Trend
Auxerre
1.6
Goals scored per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Auxerre
−0.63
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.47xG against2.10
-
Streak
Estac Troyes
5
Losses in a row
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Losses in a row -
Insight
Estac Troyes
−0.41
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.03xG against1.44
-
Alert
Estac Troyes
2.3
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Attack
-
Trend
Auxerre
1.6
Goals scored per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Auxerre
86%
Both teams scored
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Streak
Auxerre
7
Scoring in a row
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row
Defence
-
Alert
Auxerre
2.4
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Auxerre
−0.63
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.47xG against2.10
-
Alert
Estac Troyes
2.3
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Estac Troyes
−0.41
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.03xG against1.44
Team strength
Estac TroyesAuxerre
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
12
Current StrengthIn forecast
30
12
AttackIn forecast
39
19
DefenceIn forecast
25
7
Form indexContext
61
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAuxerre
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Estac TroyesAuxerre
0.71
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.57
2.29
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.43
1.03
xGVia Att/Def
1.86
1.44
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.42
-0.32
Goals minus xGContext
-0.29
43%
Scored inContext
100%
14%
Clean sheetsContext
14%
14.29
ShotsContext
11.86
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.14
21%
On target shareContext
43%
10.43
Shots in the boxContext
6.00
73%
Box shareContext
49%
5%
ConversionContext
13%
2.33
OffsidesContext
2.80
12.43
Shots allowedContext
14.71
4.71
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.29
3.00
BlocksContext
4.00
2.83
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.29
55%
Save rateContext
68%
39%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
359
PassesContext
384
287
Accurate passesContext
311
80%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.52
Team ratingContext
6.62
12.29
FoulsContext
14.86
12.71
Fouls sufferedContext
10.14
1.57
Yellow cardsContext
1.43
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.14
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
1.03
xGVia Att/Def
1.47
1.44
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.10
-0.23
Goals minus xGContext
+0.33
60%
Scored inContext
100%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.10
ShotsContext
12.10
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.40
25%
On target shareContext
45%
8.67
Shots in the boxContext
7.25
64%
Box shareContext
55%
7%
ConversionContext
15%
2.56
OffsidesContext
2.57
13.90
Shots allowedContext
13.20
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.50
3.10
BlocksContext
3.33
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.70
63%
Save rateContext
67%
39%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
351
PassesContext
385
279
Accurate passesContext
312
79%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.61
Team ratingContext
6.75
11.10
FoulsContext
14.60
13.30
Fouls sufferedContext
9.00
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Estac Troyes
LLLLL
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km578 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 7 · 0 pts vs 7.5 for an average club · -4.0 vs expected
Auxerre
LWWLW
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel68 km622 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 61 · 9 pts vs 7.8 for an average club · +3.6 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Estac Troyes |
Auxerre |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Ligue 1 2026-2027, 13 Mar | 7Ligue 1 2026-2027, 13 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 68 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 578 km | 622 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14 | 14 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Estac Troyes
Last XI · not confirmed
33P. Beach(G)
5P. Gozzi
4M. Diaz
6A. Monfray
2L. Maronnier
29D. Karim
8M. Diop
23T. Nkada
17A. Mille
10M. Ifnaoui
20R. Ripart
Auxerre
Last XI · not confirmed
1P. Nardi(G)
92C. Akpa
4A. Tuanzebe
15C. Makosso
22F. Oppegård
5K. Danois
8N. Ahamada
27L. Sy
10D. Namaso
21R. Faivre
9C. Archer
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Estac Troyes
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Auxerre
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Estac Troyes · Home
0.25points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-3
- Scored
- 0.75
- Conceded
- 2.75
Auxerre · Away
0.75points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-3
- Scored
- 1.75
- Conceded
- 3.25
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Estac Troyes | Auxerre |
|---|---|---|
| Lens | L 1–3 H | L 2–5 A |
| Angers | L 0–2 A | L 1–3 H |
| Points | 0 of 6 · 0.00 per game | 0 of 6 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 Estac Troyes wins1 draws1 Auxerre wins
Goals per game0.50 – 1.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 1 Apr 2023Auxerre1–0Estac Troyes
- 4 Nov 2022Estac Troyes1–1Auxerre
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Estac Troyes | Auxerre | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.71 | 1.57 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.29 | 2.43 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 4.00 | |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 86% | |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 71% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 86% | |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 57% | 0% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Estac Troyes | Auxerre | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.71 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.29 | 1.90 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.70 | |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 80% | |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 80% | |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 57% | 0% | |
| Games | 7 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Estac Troyes | Auxerre | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.50 | 5.57 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.50 | 7.57 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 13.14 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 3/6 | 100% 7/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 2/6 | 100% 7/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 17% 1/6 | 100% 7/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.57 | 1.57 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.29 | 1.71 | |
| Match total | 2.86 | 3.28 | 3.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 43% 3/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 29% 2/7 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Estac Troyes | Auxerre | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.33 | 5.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.78 | 6.40 | |
| Match total | 10.11 | 11.90 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 3.50 | 3.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Estac Troyes7 games · scored 5 · conceded 16
1
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
4
31-45
5
46-60
61-75
1
5
76-90
Auxerre7 games · scored 11 · conceded 17
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
1
4
46-60
4
3
61-75
2
4
76-90
Estac Troyes10 games · scored 8 · conceded 20
2
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
5
31-45
6
46-60
2
61-75
1
6
76-90
Auxerre10 games · scored 18 · conceded 19
1
4
0-15
2
2
16-30
4
1
31-45
1
4
46-60
7
3
61-75
3
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.
