Estac Troyes
Attack−7%
Defense risk+30%
Our take
Lens were clear favourites.
Lens were the stronger side on L90 Strength (57 vs 12). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Lens. Estac Troyes were without A. Ouzenadji. Lens were without M. Udol. Estac Troyes had 6 days of rest, Lens 4.1 and had to travel 254 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel254 kmRest days6 · 4.1Matches / 14d1 · 2
Estac Troyes14%
Draw19%
Lens67%
Estac Troyes16%
Draw22%
Lens62%
Estac Troyes14%
Draw19%
Lens67%
Estac Troyes10%
Draw16%
Lens74%
Estac Troyes15%
Draw19%
Lens67%
Over 2.5 66%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–2
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Troyes)
11°CPartly cloudy
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 13 km/h
- Humidity 69%
RefereeHakim Ben el Hadj
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.18
- Matches 60
Team strength
Estac Troyes
Lens
12
L90 StrengthIn forecast
57
12
Current StrengthIn forecast
56
12
AttackIn forecast
63
19
DefenceIn forecast
53
17
Form indexContext
57
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLens
Attack+35%
Defense risk−35%
Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.
Playing style
Estac TroyesLens
0.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.83
2.17
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.67
1.07
xGVia Att/Def
2.90
1.40
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.47
-0.40
Goals minus xGContext
-1.07
33%
Scored inContext
83%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
14.67
ShotsContext
15.00
2.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.50
18%
On target shareContext
43%
11.00
Shots in the boxContext
10.83
76%
Box shareContext
75%
5%
ConversionContext
12%
2.33
OffsidesContext
1.83
12.33
Shots allowedContext
11.17
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.83
2.83
BlocksContext
2.60
3.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.33
57%
Save rateContext
69%
39%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
358
PassesContext
478
285
Accurate passesContext
412
80%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.57
Team ratingContext
6.85
12.17
FoulsContext
11.67
13.00
Fouls sufferedContext
13.17
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.83
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.17
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
2.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.07
xGVia Att/Def
2.41
1.40
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.44
-0.37
Goals minus xGContext
-0.61
50%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.30
ShotsContext
17.50
2.78
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.70
22%
On target shareContext
38%
8.22
Shots in the boxContext
11.80
66%
Box shareContext
70%
6%
ConversionContext
10%
2.40
OffsidesContext
1.78
15.20
Shots allowedContext
12.10
5.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
3.30
BlocksContext
3.56
3.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.10
63%
Save rateContext
67%
39%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
343
PassesContext
461
270
Accurate passesContext
393
79%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.62
Team ratingContext
6.85
10.70
FoulsContext
10.60
12.60
Fouls sufferedContext
11.10
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Estac Troyes
WLLLL
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 17 · 3 pts vs 7.5 for an average club · -1.1 vs expected
Lens
WDLWL
Rest4.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel254 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 57 · 7 pts vs 6.2 for an average club · -0.6 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Estac Troyes |
Lens |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Ligue 1 2026-2027, 11 Oct | 4.1UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 13 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 254 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 4 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Estac Troyes
Confirmed XI
33P. Beach(G)
5P. Gozzi
4M. Diaz
6A. Monfray
2L. Maronnier
29D. Karim
8M. Diop
23T. Nkada
17A. Mille
10M. Ifnaoui
20R. Ripart
Lens
Confirmed XI
40R. Risser(G)
20J. Todibo
25P. Ganiou
32Kyllian Antonio
22M. Skóraś
5A. Bulatović
8Y. Titraoui
2R. Aguilar
7F. Sotoca
10F. Thauvin
11O. Édouard
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Estac Troyes
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.06 goals
Attack line −0.1% · Defence line −13.8% of weighted minutes
- DEF A. Ouzenadji Starter 6.55 Def −12.9%
- DEF Y. Titi Rotation 6.60 Def −0.8%
- MID Y. Kone Depth 6.32 Att −0.1% Def −0.1%
Lens
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals
Attack line −5.0% · Defence line −22.5% of weighted minutes
- DEF M. Udol Starter 6.97 Def −18.6%
- ATT A. Sima Rotation 6.66 Att −5.0%
- DEF M. Nawrocki Rotation 6.35 Def −2.0%
- DEF J. Gradit Rotation 6.88 Def −1.8%
Total impact vs full squads
- Estac Troyes+0.2 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Lens+0.0 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Estac Troyes · Home
0.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-2
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 2.67
Lens · Away
0.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-2
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Estac Troyes | Lens |
|---|---|---|
| Strasbourg | L 2–6 H | L 1–2 A |
| Lorient | W 2–1 A | L 0–1 H |
| Points | 3 of 6 · 1.50 per game | 0 of 6 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
0 Estac Troyes wins1 draws3 Lens wins
Goals per game0.50 – 2.25
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 28 Jan 2023Estac Troyes1–1Lens
- 9 Sep 2022Lens1–0Estac Troyes
- 14 May 2022Estac Troyes1–3Lens
- 5 Nov 2021Lens4–0Estac Troyes
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Estac Troyes | Lens | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.67 | 1.83 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.17 | 1.67 | |
| Match goals | 2.83 | 3.50 | 3.42 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 83% | 66% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 83% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 67% | 17% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Estac Troyes | Lens | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.67 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.17 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.83 | 3.40 | 3.42 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 70% | 66% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 60% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 67% | 30% | |
| Games | 6 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Estac Troyes | Lens | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.60 | 6.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.20 | 3.80 | |
| Match total | 8.80 | 10.60 | 9.80 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 2/5 | 100% 5/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 1/5 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 1/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.17 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 2.67 | 3.50 | 3.36 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% 2/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 2/6 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Estac Troyes | Lens | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.78 | 7.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.33 | 5.56 | |
| Match total | 10.11 | 12.56 | 9.80 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 100% 9/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.30 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 1.20 | |
| Match total | 2.70 | 3.10 | 3.36 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Hakim Ben el Hadj 60 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.77league 3.21
Red cards0.10league 0.14
Cards 5+32%league 27%
Fouls25.3league 23.6
Penalties0.18league 0.34
Home wins47%league 45%
Estac Troyes3 with this referee
Record0-0-3
Cards · opp.1.3 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L11 Jan 23H · Marseille0–22
- L9 Sep 22A · Lens0–11
- L24 Apr 22A · Nice0–11
Lens7 with this referee
Record4-1-2
Cards · opp.2.6 · 1.9
Pens for · against0 · 2
Reds1
- D13 Sep 26A · Le Mans2–23
- L5 Jan 25H · Toulouse0–16
- L20 Dec 23A · Nice0–22
- W24 Sep 23H · Toulouse2–12
- W12 Nov 22H · Clermont Foot2–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Estac Troyes6 games · scored 4 · conceded 13
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
3
31-45
4
46-60
61-75
1
5
76-90
Lens6 games · scored 11 · conceded 10
1
0-15
16-30
3
3
31-45
4
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
Estac Troyes10 games · scored 7 · conceded 21
2
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
4
31-45
5
46-60
2
3
61-75
1
6
76-90
Lens10 games · scored 18 · conceded 16
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
5
3
31-45
5
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
4
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
