Estoril vs Arouca – 7 Nov 2025

Primeira Liga Gameweek 11 Fri, Nov 7 · 20:15 Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Estoril

Estoril 12th · 10 pts · 10 played LLDDW

4–3Full time

Arouca 15th · 9 pts · 10 played WLDLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Estoril were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Estoril had 6.1 days of rest, Arouca 5.1 and had to travel 266 km.

Away travel266 kmRest days6.1 · 5.1Matches / 14d2 · 2

Estoril46%

Draw27%

Arouca27%

Expected goals 1.52 – 1.09

Estoril47%

Draw26%

Arouca27%

Expected goals 1.58 – 1.14

Estoril46%

Draw27%

Arouca27%

Expected goals 1.52 – 1.09

Estoril39%

Draw28%

Arouca33%

Expected goals 1.36 – 1.22

Estoril47%

Draw26%

Arouca27%

Expected goals 1.58 – 1.14

Over 2.5 48% Both score 53% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Estoril)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalClaudio Filipe Ruivo Pereira

Cards per match 6.3
Penalties per match 0.45
Matches 11

Team strength

Estoril

Arouca

29 L90 StrengthIn forecast 24

22 Current StrengthIn forecast 34

21 AttackIn forecast 28

29 DefenceIn forecast 37

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Estoril

Attack—

Defense risk—

Arouca

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Estoril

Arouca

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.60

1.13 xGVia Att/Def 0.59

1.47 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.84

+0.37 Goals minus xGContext +0.41

70% Scored inContext 50%

10% Clean sheetsContext 0%

12.40 ShotsContext 8.80

3.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.89

32% On target shareContext 30%

8.00 Shots in the boxContext 5.20

63% Box shareContext 56%

12% ConversionContext 11%

1.67 OffsidesContext 1.50

11.40 Shots allowedContext 13.60

3.89 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.40

2.44 BlocksContext 3.44

2.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.70

60% Save rateContext 50%

52% PossessionIn forecast 50%

401 PassesContext 390

316 Accurate passesContext 323

79% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.77 Team ratingContext 6.52

12.80 FoulsContext 14.80

12.50 Fouls sufferedContext 12.60

3.20 Yellow cardsContext 2.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

This league season, per match · 10 and 10 games

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.60

1.13 xGVia Att/Def 0.59

1.47 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.84

+0.37 Goals minus xGContext +0.41

70% Scored inContext 50%

10% Clean sheetsContext 0%

12.40 ShotsContext 8.80

3.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.89

32% On target shareContext 30%

8.00 Shots in the boxContext 5.20

63% Box shareContext 56%

12% ConversionContext 11%

1.67 OffsidesContext 1.50

11.40 Shots allowedContext 13.60

3.89 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.40

2.44 BlocksContext 3.44

2.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.70

60% Save rateContext 50%

52% PossessionIn forecast 50%

401 PassesContext 390

316 Accurate passesContext 323

79% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.77 Team ratingContext 6.52

12.80 FoulsContext 14.80

12.50 Fouls sufferedContext 12.60

3.20 Yellow cardsContext 2.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Estoril

Rest6.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km599 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Arouca

Rest5.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel266 km514 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Estoril	Arouca
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 1 Nov	5.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 2 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	266 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	599 km	514 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 2	1 / 2 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	23	24

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Estoril Confirmed XI

3-4-3

1Joel Robles(G)

25F. Bacher 44K. Boma 5A. Tsoungui

20Gonçalo Costa 7N. Lominadze 10J. Holsgrove 22Pedro Carvalho

12João Carvalho 14Y. Begraoui 19André Lacximicant

Arouca Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

58N. Mantl(G)

16Arnau Solà 3José Fontán 5B. Popović 28Tiago Esgaio

21T. Fukui 8David Simão

7N. Djouahra 14Lee Hyun-Ju 11Miguel Puche

17Barbero

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Estoril Absences are shown before kick-off

Arouca Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Estoril+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Arouca+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Estoril · Home 1.00points per game · 5 home games

W-D-L: 1-2-2
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.00

Arouca · Away 1.00points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 1-1-2
Scored: 0.75
Conceded: 3.25

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 6 this season

Opponent	Estoril	Arouca
Rio Ave	W 4–0 A	D 3–3 H
Nacional	D 1–1 H	W 2–1 A
Casa Pia	D 2–2 A	L 0–2 H
Sporting CP	L 0–1 H	L 0–6 A
AVS	W 3–1 H	W 3–1 H
Guimaraes	L 2–3 A	D 1–1 A
Points	8 of 18 · 1.33 per game	8 of 18 · 1.33 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

2 Estoril wins1 draws3 Arouca wins

Goals per game1.83 – 1.67 Over 2.550% Both scored67% Clean sheets17% · 17%

16 Mar 2025Arouca1–1Estoril
26 Oct 2024Estoril4–1Arouca
20 Jan 2024Estoril1–2Arouca
13 Aug 2023Arouca4–3Estoril
15 May 2023Estoril2–0Arouca
7 Jan 2023Arouca2–0Estoril

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Estoril	Arouca	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	1.00
Conceded per game	1.40	2.60
Match goals	2.90	3.60	2.61
Over 1.5	80%	100%
Over 2.5	50%	60%	48%
Over 3.5	50%	50%
Both teams scored	60%	50%	53%
Clean sheets	10%	0%
Failed to score	30%	50%
Games	10	10

	Estoril	Arouca	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	1.00
Conceded per game	1.40	2.60
Match goals	2.90	3.60	2.61
Over 1.5	80%	100%
Over 2.5	50%	60%	48%
Over 3.5	50%	50%
Both teams scored	60%	50%	53%
Clean sheets	10%	0%
Failed to score	30%	50%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Estoril	Arouca	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	3.70
Corners conceded	5.38	5.20
Match total	9.38	8.90	9.15
Over 8.5	50% 4/8	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	50% 4/8	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	50% 4/8	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	3.20	2.90
Opponent cards	2.20	2.50
Match total	5.40	5.40	5.44
Over 3.5	100% 10/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10

	Estoril	Arouca	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	3.70
Corners conceded	5.38	5.20
Match total	9.38	8.90	9.15
Over 8.5	50% 4/8	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	50% 4/8	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	50% 4/8	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	3.20	2.90
Opponent cards	2.20	2.50
Match total	5.40	5.40	5.44
Over 3.5	100% 10/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Claudio Filipe Ruivo Pereira Portugal · 11 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.91league 5.19

Red cards0.36league 0.27

Cards 5+73%league 64%

Fouls28.4league 27.8

Penalties0.45league 0.47

Home wins27%league 37%

Estoril

No previous matches with this referee.

Arouca

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.