Estoril
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
GIL Vicente were slight favourites.
GIL Vicente were the stronger side on L90 Strength (39 vs 33). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for GIL Vicente. Estoril had 7 days of rest, GIL Vicente 7.9 and had to travel 321 km.
Away travel321 kmRest days7 · 7.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Estoril30%
Draw27%
GIL Vicente44%
Estoril40%
Draw27%
GIL Vicente33%
Estoril30%
Draw27%
GIL Vicente44%
Estoril24%
Draw25%
GIL Vicente51%
Estoril30%
Draw26%
GIL Vicente44%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Estoril)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalVasilica Iancu
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.17
- Matches 6
Team strength
Estoril
GIL Vicente
33
L90 StrengthIn forecast
39
22
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
21
AttackIn forecast
32
29
DefenceIn forecast
50
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGIL Vicente
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
EstorilGIL Vicente
1.95
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.73
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.82
1.33
xGVia Att/Def
1.33
1.51
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.93
+0.62
Goals minus xGContext
+0.17
73%
Scored inContext
77%
14%
Clean sheetsContext
45%
12.00
ShotsContext
14.05
4.27
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.68
36%
On target shareContext
33%
7.77
Shots in the boxContext
7.82
64%
Box shareContext
56%
16%
ConversionContext
11%
1.50
OffsidesContext
2.06
11.64
Shots allowedContext
9.64
4.38
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.65
2.89
BlocksContext
2.29
2.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
60%
Save rateContext
76%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
428
PassesContext
361
351
Accurate passesContext
293
82%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.81
12.09
FoulsContext
13.59
12.32
Fouls sufferedContext
14.55
2.64
Yellow cardsContext
2.45
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.14
2.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.52
xGVia Att/Def
1.37
1.63
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.80
+0.88
Goals minus xGContext
+0.33
80%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.10
ShotsContext
15.10
4.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
42%
On target shareContext
33%
7.20
Shots in the boxContext
8.20
65%
Box shareContext
54%
22%
ConversionContext
11%
1.44
OffsidesContext
2.33
12.00
Shots allowedContext
8.10
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.11
3.38
BlocksContext
1.88
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.29
60%
Save rateContext
62%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
457
PassesContext
378
385
Accurate passesContext
311
84%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.74
12.00
FoulsContext
11.90
11.90
Fouls sufferedContext
15.10
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Estoril
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
GIL Vicente
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel321 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Estoril |
GIL Vicente |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 15 Feb | 7.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 14 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 321 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.1 | 8.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
Estoril
Confirmed XI
1Joel Robles(G)
20Gonçalo Costa
25F. Bacher
4Ferro
2Ricard Sánchez
10J. Holsgrove
5A. Tsoungui
6Jandro Orellana
12João Carvalho
9A. Marqués
14Y. Begraoui
GIL Vicente
Confirmed XI
30Lucão(G)
3G. Konan
39Jonathan Buatu
48Espigares
2Zé Carlos
10Luís Esteves
6Zé Carlos
11Joelson Fernandes
95Santi García
77Murilo
89Gustavo Varela
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Estoril
Absences are shown before kick-off
GIL Vicente
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Estoril+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- GIL Vicente+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Estoril · Home
1.73points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-4-2
- Scored
- 2.09
- Conceded
- 1.45
GIL Vicente · Away
1.55points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-5-2
- Scored
- 1.27
- Conceded
- 0.91
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Estoril | GIL Vicente |
|---|---|---|
| AVS | L 0–3 AW 3–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Tondela | D 2–2 HD 2–2 A | L 0–1 H |
| Santa Clara | W 4–2 AL 0–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Guimaraes | W 4–2 HL 2–3 A | D 0–0 A |
| Estrela | W 5–0 AD 1–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| Benfica | L 1–3 A | L 1–2 A |
| Alverca | W 4–1 H | W 4–0 A |
| SC Braga | W 1–0 H | W 2–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Famalicao | L 0–4 A | W 5–0 HD 0–0 A |
| Moreirense | D 3–3 H | W 2–1 AW 2–0 H |
| FC Porto | L 0–1 A | L 0–3 AL 0–2 H |
| Arouca | W 4–3 H | D 2–2 A |
| Rio Ave | W 4–0 A | D 2–2 H |
| Nacional | D 1–1 H | W 2–1 HW 2–0 A |
| Casa Pia | D 2–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| Sporting CP | L 0–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 30 of 63 · 1.43 per game | 37 of 63 · 1.76 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
3 Estoril wins1 draws3 GIL Vicente wins
Goals per game1.14 – 1.57
Over 2.543%
Both scored43%
Clean sheets43% · 29%
- 21 Sep 2025GIL Vicente2–0Estoril
- 1 Feb 2025GIL Vicente1–2Estoril
- 25 Aug 2024Estoril0–0GIL Vicente
- 18 Feb 2024Estoril1–3GIL Vicente
- 17 Sep 2023GIL Vicente5–3Estoril
- 31 Mar 2023Estoril1–0GIL Vicente
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Estoril | GIL Vicente | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.95 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.73 | 0.82 | |
| Match goals | 3.68 | 2.32 | 2.72 |
| Over 1.5 | 82% | 77% | |
| Over 2.5 | 68% | 41% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 64% | 18% | |
| Both teams scored | 59% | 41% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 45% | |
| Failed to score | 27% | 23% | |
| Games | 22 | 22 |
| Estoril | GIL Vicente | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.40 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 4.40 | 2.90 | 2.72 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 90% | 70% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 80% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Estoril | GIL Vicente | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.80 | 5.84 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.90 | 4.53 | |
| Match total | 9.70 | 10.37 | 9.21 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 12/20 | 68% 13/19 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 10/20 | 63% 12/19 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 8/20 | 63% 12/19 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.64 | 2.64 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.23 | 2.82 | |
| Match total | 4.87 | 5.46 | 5.23 |
| Over 3.5 | 86% 19/22 | 77% 17/22 | |
| Over 4.5 | 59% 13/22 | 64% 14/22 | |
| Estoril | GIL Vicente | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.10 | 6.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.80 | 4.60 | |
| Match total | 9.90 | 10.70 | 9.21 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 3.30 | |
| Match total | 4.70 | 5.50 | 5.23 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Vasilica Iancu Portugal · 6 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.33league 4.89
Red cards0.33league 0.28
Cards 5+17%league 59%
Fouls24.7league 26.9
Penalties0.17league 0.44
Home wins50%league 42%
EstorilNo previous matches with this referee.
GIL Vicente1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W19 Apr 25A · Nacional3–03
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Estoril22 games · scored 43 · conceded 38
4
7
0-15
6
4
16-30
11
7
31-45
10
5
46-60
7
8
61-75
5
7
76-90
GIL Vicente22 games · scored 33 · conceded 18
5
2
0-15
1
5
16-30
11
4
31-45
5
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
9
2
76-90
Estoril10 games · scored 24 · conceded 20
1
3
0-15
4
3
16-30
6
3
31-45
7
3
46-60
4
4
61-75
2
4
76-90
GIL Vicente10 games · scored 17 · conceded 12
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
5
3
31-45
3
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
7
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
