Estoril
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Estoril were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Estoril had 22.8 days of rest, Nacional 22 and had to travel 954 km.
Away travel954 kmRest days22.8 · 22Matches / 14d0 · 0
Estoril45%
Draw28%
Nacional28%
Estoril45%
Draw27%
Nacional28%
Estoril45%
Draw28%
Nacional28%
Estoril37%
Draw28%
Nacional34%
Estoril45%
Draw27%
Nacional28%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Estoril)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalMiguel Andre Monteiro Fonseca
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.00
- Matches 2
Team strength
Estoril
Nacional
26
L90 StrengthIn forecast
24
22
Current StrengthIn forecast
17
21
AttackIn forecast
15
29
DefenceIn forecast
13
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNacional
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
EstorilNacional
1.25
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.13
1.63
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
0.93
xGVia Att/Def
1.23
1.67
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.37
+0.32
Goals minus xGContext
-0.10
63%
Scored inContext
75%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
11.13
ShotsContext
11.00
3.63
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
33%
On target shareContext
36%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
62%
Box shareContext
52%
11%
ConversionContext
10%
1.43
OffsidesContext
2.57
12.88
Shots allowedContext
13.00
3.88
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.13
2.86
BlocksContext
4.00
2.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.71
58%
Save rateContext
61%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
380
PassesContext
286
295
Accurate passesContext
211
77%
Pass accuracyContext
74%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.75
12.88
FoulsContext
14.75
12.63
Fouls sufferedContext
11.25
3.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.13
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.13
xGVia Att/Def
1.28
1.54
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.39
+0.47
Goals minus xGContext
-0.08
70%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.60
ShotsContext
11.00
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.10
38%
On target shareContext
37%
6.90
Shots in the boxContext
6.88
64%
Box shareContext
54%
15%
ConversionContext
11%
1.50
OffsidesContext
2.22
12.20
Shots allowedContext
12.50
3.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
3.00
BlocksContext
3.80
2.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.56
62%
Save rateContext
56%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
386
PassesContext
293
303
Accurate passesContext
220
78%
Pass accuracyContext
75%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.72
13.30
FoulsContext
14.40
13.30
Fouls sufferedContext
11.30
3.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Estoril
Rest22.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Nacional
Rest22 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel954 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Estoril |
Nacional |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 22.8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 3 Oct | 22Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 4 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 954 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 1 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Estoril
Confirmed XI
1Joel Robles(G)
20Gonçalo Costa
25F. Bacher
44K. Boma
5A. Tsoungui
12João Carvalho
10J. Holsgrove
6Jandro Orellana
22Pedro Carvalho
19André Lacximicant
14Y. Begraoui
Nacional
Confirmed XI
1Kaique(G)
5José Gomes
38Zé Vitor
34Léo Santos
2João Aurélio
15C. Labidi
6Matheus Dias
28Liziero
11Paulinho Bóia
9J. Ramírez
99Pablo Ruan
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Estoril
Absences are shown before kick-off
Nacional
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Estoril+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Nacional+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Estoril · Home
1.00points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Nacional · Away
1.75points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Estoril | Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia | D 2–2 A | W 2–0 A |
| Sporting CP | L 0–1 H | L 1–4 H |
| GIL Vicente | L 0–2 A | L 0–2 H |
| Points | 1 of 9 · 0.33 per game | 3 of 9 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Estoril wins1 draws0 Nacional wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 15 Feb 2025Nacional2–2Estoril
- 15 Sep 2024Estoril1–0Nacional
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Estoril | Nacional | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.25 | 1.13 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.63 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.88 | 2.63 | 2.54 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 38% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 50% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 38% | 25% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Estoril | Nacional | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.25 | 1.13 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.63 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.88 | 2.63 | 2.54 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 38% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 50% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 38% | 25% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Estoril | Nacional | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.71 | 4.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.43 | 5.63 | |
| Match total | 9.14 | 10.38 | 9.29 |
| Over 8.5 | 43% 3/7 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 3/7 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 43% 3/7 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.50 | 2.88 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 5.50 | 5.38 | 5.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 8/8 | 88% 7/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 75% 6/8 | 88% 7/8 | |
| Estoril | Nacional | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.89 | 5.10 | |
| Match total | 8.89 | 10.10 | 9.29 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.40 | 3.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 5.50 | 5.60 | 5.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 10/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Miguel Andre Monteiro Fonseca Portugal · 2 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.50league 5.24
Red cards0.00league 0.28
Cards 5+50%league 66%
Fouls21.5league 27.8
Penalties0.00league 0.46
Home wins0%league 37%
Estoril1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.4.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D11 May 25A · Moreirense2–24
Nacional1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W28 Sep 25A · SC Braga1–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Estoril8 games · scored 10 · conceded 13
2
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
2
3
76-90
Nacional8 games · scored 9 · conceded 12
2
2
0-15
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
4
76-90
Estoril10 games · scored 16 · conceded 15
4
2
0-15
4
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
3
61-75
4
3
76-90
Nacional10 games · scored 12 · conceded 18
2
4
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
4
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
4
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
