Estoril vs Santa Clara – 6 Sep 2025

Primeira Liga Gameweek 3 Sat, Sep 6 · 20:30 Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Estoril

Estoril 14th · 2 pts · 3 played DLD

0–1Full time

Santa Clara 15th · 1 pts · 3 played LLD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Estoril were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Estoril had 6.2 days of rest, Santa Clara 6 and had to travel 1,424 km.

Away travel1,424 kmRest days6.2 · 6Matches / 14d1 · 1

Estoril47%

Draw27%

Santa Clara26%

Expected goals 1.51 – 1.08

Estoril47%

Draw26%

Santa Clara27%

Expected goals 1.58 – 1.13

Estoril47%

Draw27%

Santa Clara26%

Expected goals 1.51 – 1.08

Estoril39%

Draw28%

Santa Clara33%

Expected goals 1.35 – 1.21

Estoril47%

Draw26%

Santa Clara27%

Expected goals 1.58 – 1.13

Over 2.5 48% Both score 52% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Estoril)

No weather data yet

RefereeMiguel Bertolo Nogueira

Cards per match 3.0
Penalties per match 0.00
Matches 2

Team strength

Estoril

Santa Clara

28 L90 StrengthIn forecast 23

22 Current StrengthIn forecast 34

21 AttackIn forecast 29

29 DefenceIn forecast 53

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Estoril

Attack—

Defense risk—

Santa Clara

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Estoril

Santa Clara

1.67 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.00

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.33

1.12 xGVia Att/Def 0.61

2.04 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.86

+0.55 Goals minus xGContext -0.61

100% Scored inContext 0%

0% Clean sheetsContext 33%

12.00 ShotsContext 10.33

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.33

33% On target shareContext 23%

6.67 Shots in the boxContext 6.33

56% Box shareContext 61%

14% ConversionContext 0%

1.67 OffsidesContext 2.00

13.00 Shots allowedContext 4.67

4.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.50

2.33 BlocksContext —

2.33 Goalkeeper savesContext —

54% Save rateContext 50%

53% PossessionIn forecast 55%

366 PassesContext 423

286 Accurate passesContext 360

78% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.63 Team ratingContext 6.65

13.00 FoulsContext 15.00

12.67 Fouls sufferedContext 15.67

3.33 Yellow cardsContext 2.67

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 3 and 3 games

1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.90

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90

1.33 xGVia Att/Def 0.74

1.50 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.04

+0.47 Goals minus xGContext +0.16

80% Scored inContext 50%

20% Clean sheetsContext 50%

10.00 ShotsContext 11.50

4.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.00

42% On target shareContext 26%

6.20 Shots in the boxContext 7.00

60% Box shareContext 61%

18% ConversionContext 4%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.67

9.90 Shots allowedContext 6.50

3.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.33

2.44 BlocksContext 1.67

2.10 Goalkeeper savesContext —

57% Save rateContext 50%

53% PossessionIn forecast 52%

411 PassesContext 386

327 Accurate passesContext 316

80% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.82 Team ratingContext 6.73

14.80 FoulsContext 16.80

14.30 Fouls sufferedContext 15.40

2.50 Yellow cardsContext 3.20

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Estoril

Rest6.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km462 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Santa Clara

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel1,424 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load12%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Estoril	Santa Clara
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.2Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 31 Aug	6Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 31 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,424 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	462 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 3	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	6.8	6

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Estoril Confirmed XI

5-3-2

1Joel Robles(G)

2Ricard Sánchez 24Pedro Amaral 25F. Bacher 4Ferro 22Pedro Carvalho

21Pizzi 10J. Holsgrove 45Patrick de Paula

12João Carvalho 19André Lacximicant

Santa Clara Confirmed XI

3-4-3

1Gabriel Batista(G)

32MT 21F. Ferrão Venâncio 23Sidney Lima

64Paulo Victor 6Adriano 35Serginho 42Lucas Soares

3Matheus Pereira 10Gabriel Silva 11Brenner Lucas Gonçalves Santos

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Estoril Absences are shown before kick-off

Santa Clara Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Estoril+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Santa Clara+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Estoril · Home 1.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 0-1-0
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.00

Santa Clara · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 0.00
Conceded: 3.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

Opponent	Estoril	Santa Clara
Estrela	D 1–1 H	D 0–0 H
Points	1 of 3 · 1.00 per game	1 of 3 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

2 Estoril wins0 draws2 Santa Clara wins

Goals per game2.00 – 2.25 Over 2.5100% Both scored75% Clean sheets25% · 0%

18 Jan 2025Santa Clara2–3Estoril
11 Aug 2024Estoril1–4Santa Clara
30 Apr 2023Estoril3–0Santa Clara
14 Nov 2022Santa Clara3–1Estoril

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Estoril	Santa Clara	Forecast
Scored per game	1.67	0.00
Conceded per game	2.00	1.33
Match goals	3.67	1.33	2.59
Over 1.5	100%	33%
Over 2.5	67%	33%	48%
Over 3.5	67%	0%
Both teams scored	100%	0%	52%
Clean sheets	0%	33%
Failed to score	0%	100%
Games	3	3

	Estoril	Santa Clara	Forecast
Scored per game	1.67	0.00
Conceded per game	2.00	1.33
Match goals	3.67	1.33	2.59
Over 1.5	100%	33%
Over 2.5	67%	33%	48%
Over 3.5	67%	0%
Both teams scored	100%	0%	52%
Clean sheets	0%	33%
Failed to score	0%	100%
Games	3	3

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Estoril	Santa Clara	League
Corners
Corners won	3.33	3.00
Corners conceded	3.67	2.00
Match total	7.00	5.00	8.97
Over 8.5	0% 0/3	0% 0/1
Over 9.5	0% 0/3	0% 0/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/3	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	3.33	2.67
Opponent cards	2.00	3.33
Match total	5.33	6.00	5.27
Over 3.5	100% 3/3	100% 3/3
Over 4.5	67% 2/3	67% 2/3

	Estoril	Santa Clara	League
Corners
Corners won	3.80	6.67
Corners conceded	3.40	2.67
Match total	7.20	9.34	8.97
Over 8.5	20% 2/10	67% 2/3
Over 9.5	10% 1/10	33% 1/3
Over 10.5	10% 1/10	33% 1/3
Cards
Cards	2.60	3.20
Opponent cards	2.20	2.50
Match total	4.80	5.70	5.27
Over 3.5	90% 9/10	100% 10/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	70% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Miguel Bertolo Nogueira 2 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards2.50league 5.15

Red cards0.50league 0.21

Cards 5+0%league 62%

Fouls26.5league 27.9

Penalties0.00league 0.32

Home wins0%league 32%

Estoril

No previous matches with this referee.

Santa Clara

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.