Estoril
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Sporting CP were clear favourites.
Sporting CP were the stronger side on L90 Strength (80 vs 26). Estoril had 6.1 days of rest, Sporting CP 5 and had to travel 22 km.
Away travel22 kmRest days6.1 · 5Matches / 14d1 · 2
Estoril14%
Draw21%
Sporting CP66%
Estoril14%
Draw21%
Sporting CP65%
Estoril14%
Draw21%
Sporting CP66%
Estoril10%
Draw18%
Sporting CP72%
Estoril14%
Draw21%
Sporting CP65%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 0–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Estoril)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalLuís Godinho
- Cards per match 5.2
- Penalties per match 0.32
- Matches 72
Team strength
Estoril
Sporting CP
26
L90 StrengthIn forecast
80
22
Current StrengthIn forecast
83
21
AttackIn forecast
75
29
DefenceIn forecast
81
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSporting CP
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
EstorilSporting CP
1.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.00
1.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.67
1.00
xGVia Att/Def
2.59
1.84
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.67
+0.33
Goals minus xGContext
+0.41
67%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
12.00
ShotsContext
20.50
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
8.00
33%
On target shareContext
39%
7.33
Shots in the boxContext
13.67
59%
Box shareContext
67%
11%
ConversionContext
15%
1.60
OffsidesContext
2.40
13.83
Shots allowedContext
7.00
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.33
3.00
BlocksContext
2.17
2.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
58%
Save rateContext
77%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
63%
384
PassesContext
512
301
Accurate passesContext
445
79%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.78
Team ratingContext
7.16
13.00
FoulsContext
11.00
12.67
Fouls sufferedContext
15.33
3.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.83
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.70
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
1.26
xGVia Att/Def
2.29
1.65
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.69
+0.54
Goals minus xGContext
+0.41
80%
Scored inContext
100%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
11.00
ShotsContext
18.30
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.90
37%
On target shareContext
38%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
11.50
63%
Box shareContext
61%
16%
ConversionContext
15%
2.14
OffsidesContext
1.88
12.00
Shots allowedContext
6.80
3.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.22
3.00
BlocksContext
2.88
2.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.17
62%
Save rateContext
77%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
400
PassesContext
497
318
Accurate passesContext
429
80%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.84
Team ratingContext
7.17
13.60
FoulsContext
12.10
13.30
Fouls sufferedContext
15.30
3.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Estoril
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km642 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Sporting CP
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel22 km606 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Estoril |
Sporting CP |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 21 Sep | 5Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 22 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 22 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 642 km | 606 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 7.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Estoril
Confirmed XI
1Joel Robles(G)
4Ferro
25F. Bacher
44K. Boma
24Pedro Amaral
45Patrick de Paula
10J. Holsgrove
2Ricard Sánchez
99R. Guitane
12João Carvalho
9A. Marqués
Sporting CP
Confirmed XI
1Rui Silva(G)
20M. Araújo
25G. Inácio
6Z. Debast
13G. Vagiannidis
5H. Morita
42M. Hjulmand
8Pote
17Trincão
7G. Quenda
97L. Suárez
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Estoril
Absences are shown before kick-off
Sporting CP
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Estoril+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Sporting CP+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Estoril · Home
1.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 1.00
Sporting CP · Away
3.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-0
- Scored
- 2.67
- Conceded
- 0.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
0 Estoril wins0 draws6 Sporting CP wins
Goals per game0.33 – 2.67
Over 2.550%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets0% · 67%
- 3 Mar 2025Sporting CP3–1Estoril
- 27 Sep 2024Estoril0–3Sporting CP
- 11 May 2024Estoril0–1Sporting CP
- 5 Jan 2024Sporting CP5–1Estoril
- 27 Feb 2023Sporting CP2–0Estoril
- 2 Sep 2022Estoril0–2Sporting CP
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Estoril | Sporting CP | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.33 | 3.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 0.67 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.67 | 2.92 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 83% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 0% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Estoril | Sporting CP | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.33 | 3.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 0.67 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.67 | 2.92 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 83% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 0% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Estoril | Sporting CP | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.20 | 6.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.60 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 7.80 | 9.67 | 9.04 |
| Over 8.5 | 20% 1/5 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 1/5 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 1/5 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.50 | 1.83 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.83 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 5.33 | 4.83 | 5.14 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 6/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 67% 4/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Estoril | Sporting CP | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.56 | 6.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.11 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 7.67 | 9.60 | 9.04 |
| Over 8.5 | 22% 2/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 11% 1/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.10 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 3.10 | |
| Match total | 5.20 | 5.40 | 5.14 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 10/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Luís Godinho Portugal · 72 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.93league 5.07
Red cards0.25league 0.22
Cards 5+60%league 62%
Fouls29.1league 28.3
Penalties0.32league 0.43
Home wins42%league 36%
Estoril3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.3.7 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- W26 Jan 25H · Guimaraes1–03
- L5 May 24A · Farense2–30
- D17 Sep 22H · FC Porto1–18
Sporting CP9 with this referee
Record7-2-0
Cards · opp.2.6 · 3.0
Pens for · against5 · 0
- D7 Apr 25H · SC Braga1–13
- W18 Jan 25A · Rio Ave3–01
- W10 Nov 24A · SC Braga4–24
- W31 Aug 24H · FC Porto2–01
- W17 Aug 24A · Nacional6–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Estoril6 games · scored 8 · conceded 10
1
1
0-15
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
1
3
76-90
Sporting CP6 games · scored 18 · conceded 4
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
31-45
2
46-60
4
2
61-75
7
76-90
Estoril10 games · scored 18 · conceded 15
3
2
0-15
5
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
3
61-75
6
3
76-90
Sporting CP10 games · scored 27 · conceded 7
1
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
4
31-45
3
46-60
7
3
61-75
10
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
