Estrela
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Estrela44.3%fair odds 2.26
Draw25.3%fair odds 3.95
Academico Viseu30.4%fair odds 3.29
Expected goals1.64 – 1.32total 2.97
Likeliest score1–111.8%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Academico Viseu
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Estrela ↓ · Academico Viseu → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 6.2 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.8 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.2 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Estrela goals, columns Academico Viseu goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.8%8.48
- 2–19.2%10.88
- 1–07.9%12.72
- 1–27.4%13.48
- 2–06.9%14.42
- 0–16.2%16.05
- 2–26.1%16.43
- 0–05.7%17.41
- 3–15.0%19.89
- 0–24.5%22.12
Winning margin
9.7%
Estrela by 3+
fair 10.30
13.5%
Estrela by 2
fair 7.38
21.1%
Estrela by 1
fair 4.75
25.3%
Draw
fair 3.95
16.9%
Academico Viseu by 1
fair 5.92
8.8%
Academico Viseu by 2
fair 11.33
4.7%
Academico Viseu by 3+
fair 21.42
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
14%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
18%5+
Estrela goals
19%0
32%1
26%2
14%3
8%4+
Academico Viseu goals
27%0
35%1
23%2
10%3
5%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Estrela win | 44.3% | 44.6% | -0.3 pp |
| Draw | 25.3% | 25.0% | +0.3 pp |
| Academico Viseu win | 30.4% | 30.4% | +0.0 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 56.9% | 58.1% | -1.1 pp |
| Both teams score | 59.8% | 60.6% | -0.9 pp |
| Expected goals Estrela | 1.64 | 1.67 | -0.03 |
| Expected goals Academico Viseu | 1.32 | 1.35 | -0.02 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Estrela win44.3%2.26
- Draw25.3%3.95
- Academico Viseu win30.4%3.29
- Double chance Estrela or draw69.6%1.44
- Double chance Estrela or Academico Viseu74.7%1.34
- Double chance Academico Viseu or draw55.7%1.80
- Draw no bet Estrela59.3%1.69
- Draw no bet Academico Viseu40.7%2.46
Goals
- Over 0.594.3%1.06
- Over 1.580.2%1.25
- Over 2.556.9%1.76
- Over 3.534.5%2.90
- Over 4.517.9%5.58
- Under 1.519.8%5.04
- Under 2.543.1%2.32
- Under 3.565.5%1.53
Both teams to score
- Yes59.8%1.67
- No40.2%2.49
- Yes and over 2.548.0%2.08
- Estrela win and yes23.5%4.26
- Draw and yes19.6%5.11
- Academico Viseu win and yes16.7%5.97
Team goals
- Estrela over 0.580.6%1.24
- Estrela over 1.548.8%2.05
- Estrela over 2.522.7%4.40
- Academico Viseu over 0.573.4%1.36
- Academico Viseu over 1.538.2%2.62
- Academico Viseu over 2.514.9%6.73
- Estrela clean sheet26.6%3.76
- Academico Viseu clean sheet19.4%5.16
- Estrela win to nil20.8%4.80
- Academico Viseu win to nil13.6%7.34
Handicap
- Estrela −1.523.3%4.30
- Estrela −2.59.7%10.30
- Academico Viseu +1.576.7%1.30
- Academico Viseu +2.590.3%1.11
- Academico Viseu −1.513.5%7.41
- Estrela +1.586.5%1.16
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Primeira Liga 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored57
Favourite won52.6%
Avg chance given to result44.7%
1X2 Brier0.552
Over 2.5 called right56.1%
BTTS called right49.1%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 10 | 38.4% | 30.0% |
| 40–50% | 11 | 44.8% | 18.2% |
| 50–60% | 15 | 53.4% | 60.0% |
| 60–70% | 7 | 65.0% | 71.4% |
| 70–80% | 11 | 75.0% | 81.8% |
| 80%+ | 3 | 84.5% | 66.7% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 23 of 57 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5656 | 0.5750 |
| Avg chance given to result | 43.8% | 44.2% |
| Favourite won | 52.2% | 43.5% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 23 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 57 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.